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MIA

Miami 28 at Florida State 31

FSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:57 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:07: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 10 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +16.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:56: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:04: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +23.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:43: Ryan Fitzgerald 29 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:26: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Travis Run For Two-point Conversion) — FSU win probability +52.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:53MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44FSU 4th & 4 at MIA 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−7.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:22MIA 4th & 10 at FSU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:54FSU 4th & 7 at MIA 34, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 2 at MIA 9, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%−1.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:53FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:46MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−2.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:53FSU 4th & 10 at MIA 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:25MIA 4th & 6 at FSU 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:56MIA 4th & 2 at FSU 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−2.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−17.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:57FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:47FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:43FSU 4th & 3 at MIA 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.4
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−10.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 46, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:58FSU 4th & 14 at MIA 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−2.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−5.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:02MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:50FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:05FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:35MIA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:07MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:04MIA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:26FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4260% → 60%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
40.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
40.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
40.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds , Ontaria Wilson returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4740% → 44%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
40.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
40.5%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
40.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
41.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Flagg Jr.) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+40
41.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 30 yds to the FLORIDAST 21 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (James Williams) to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
41.6%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
41.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keontra Smith) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
41.9%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Smith, Keontra) 3 yards to the MIAMI3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
42.2%
Williams, D.J. rush for 1 yard to the MIAMI2, PENALTY MIAMI offside (Carter, Amari) 2 yards to the MIAMI1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
42.1%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.2%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0857% → 57%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Omarion Cooper return for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1644% → 45%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
44.0%
Travis, Jordan pass complete to Douglas, Ja'Khi for 6 yards to the FLORIDAST40, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (McDonald, Camren) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+7
44.1%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+5
44.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 5 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-5
44.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Dillan Gibbons) to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+6
44.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+7
45.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds , Jacolby George returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4755% → 54%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
45.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
45.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+7
45.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 3
50
0
45.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
50
+2
45.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
46.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-2
46.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Jammie Robinson return for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2649% → 49%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
48.8%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
49.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
49.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Williams) to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-9
49.9%
Jordan Travis sacked by Corey Flagg Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
48.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:1051% → 50%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
48.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
49.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jarrid Williams) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
49.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 15
OWN 19
-7
49.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 12 Tyler Van Dyke fumbled, forced by Jermaine Johnson II, recovered by FlaSt Derrick McLendon II , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
57.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4845% → 44%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
54.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
55.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+27
55.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ontaria Wilson at the FLORIDAST 26 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Te'Cory Couch) to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1759% → 65%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
58.5%
Jordan Travis run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
58.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+35
59.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 35 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.9%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
65.2%
Ryan Fitzgerald 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:5636% → 33%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
64.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
64.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
65.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
65.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
65.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
66.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
66.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, downed at the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:2668% → 73%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
68.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 5 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
70.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+10
69.4%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
71.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
71.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 20 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
72.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-3
72.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+4
73.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
73.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0730% → 41%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
70.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
69.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+45
70.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 45 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
69.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:2663% → 72%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
62.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
63.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+26
63.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 26 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
66.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Keontra Smith) to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
66.9%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
68.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+1
66.9%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
72.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0274% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.5%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
74.0%
Ontaria Wilson run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
75.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
76.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
75.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+36
74.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the FLORIDAST 10 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brendan Gant) to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0127% → 22%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
75.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
75.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick McLendon II) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
75.7%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
78.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds , Travis Jay returns for no gain to the FlaSt 42 Travis Jay fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Travis JaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5179% → 79%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
79.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-6
79.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 38 Jashaun Corbin fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Nesta Jade SilveraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:2324% → 42%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
75.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
75.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
75.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Thaddius Franklin Jr. for 18 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
58.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 10 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5765% → 67%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
65.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
64.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 18 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
68.3%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Gilbert Frierson) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
69.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-4
70.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+1
68.4%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
66.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 34 yds, downed at the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 3:5235% → 57%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+33
64.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 33 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
63.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 29 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
58.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
57.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Zion Nelson) to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
58.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
62.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+5
65.7%
Borregales, Andres field goal attempt from 54 MISSED - short kick, spot at FLORIDAST36, clock 01:30, PENALTY FLORIDAST running into kicker (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+19
63.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 19 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
58.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
60.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+12
64.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 12 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
42.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5247% → 45%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
44.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:3656% → 84%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
44.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
42.2%
Knighton, Jaylan rush for 1 yard to the MIAMI36, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal participation 5 yards to the MIAMI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
42.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
40.7%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
38.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+35
15.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:0123% → 32%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
24.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
22.8%
Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
24.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
23.3%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
21.9%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
23.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
24.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+19
22.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Chantz Williams) to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
25.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
23.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-2
22.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+8
18.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 8 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
31.9%
Ryan Fitzgerald 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1181% → 87%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
19.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 12 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
17.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
13.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
12.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
13.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:4323% → 95%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+59
22.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 59 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
30.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
30.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-5
22.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Darius Washington) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
19.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+24
15.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 24 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.7%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
43.3%
Travis, Jordan rush for no gain to the MIAMI1, PENALTY MIAMI offside 0 yards to the MIAMI1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Travis Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1912% → 10%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+19
90.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 19 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:26
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Travis Run For Two-point Conversion)
+52.1
TD · Q4 11:04
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-23.1
TD · Q4 14:56
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com