Florida State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1252nd
  Defense+0.2220th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.4%40th
  Defense47.6%15th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3687th
  Defense+1.3129th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3198th
  Defense+0.1718th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.096th
  Defense+0.2824th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.9%56th
  Defense51.6%21st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.6%28th
  Defense37.6%7th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2790th
  Defense2.9248th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.2%71st
  Defense20.6%59th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.4%16th
  Defense14.1%22nd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   GT
2. L
   MIA
3. W
   JXST
4. L
   ND
5. W
   UNC
6. L
   LOU
7. L
   PITT
8. L
   NCSU
9. W
   DUKE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida State.

Players, 2020

1. Jordan TravisQB210 plays · +0.282 pts/play · 17th of 212 QBs
   1.11WAR0.69 to 1.53
2. Jashaun CorbinRB85 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 120th of 338 RBs
   0.26WAR0.20 to 0.33
3. La'Damian WebbRB72 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 130th of 338 RBs
   0.25WAR0.20 to 0.29
4. James BlackmanQB66 plays · +0.078 pts/play · 162nd of 212 QBs
   0.10WAR−0.03 to 0.21
5. Ontaria WilsonWR28 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 182nd of 409 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
6. Tamorrion TerryWR32 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 194th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
7. Keyshawn HeltonWR18 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 308th of 409 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
8. Lawrance ToafiliRB13 plays · +0.088 pts/play · 289th of 338 RBs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  83383315th of 127Roster talent: 833, 15th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  26026013th of 127Recruiting: 260, 13th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%67th of 127Returning production: 62%, 67th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.9−4.989th of 127SP+ rating: −4.9, 89th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs GTQ4 3:50 4th & 8 at GT 38, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.5 pts
2. vs UNCQ3 2:15 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs PITTQ2 1:54 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. at LOUQ4 14:15 4th & 12 at LOU 45, down 25Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
5. at NCSUQ1 9:52 4th & 1 at FSU 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
6. at NCSUQ4 15:00 4th & 9 at FSU 40, down 26Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
7. vs JXSTQ4 10:13 4th & 4 at FSU 26, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. vs DUKEQ2 10:33 4th & 4 at FSU 41, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

96th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   GT
2. L

   MIA
3. W

   JXST
4. L

   ND
5. W

   UNC
6. L

   LOU
7. L

   PITT
8. L

   NCSU
9. W

   DUKE

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Florida State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.15
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.42

Game by game

• GTL 13-16 vs GT77% → 5%Before kickoff +27 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• MIAL 10-52 at MIA20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −22
• JXSTW 41-24 vs JXST97% → 98%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +8
• NDL 26-42 at ND9% → 2%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −15
• UNCW 31-28 vs UNC15% → 93%Before kickoff −35 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• LOUL 16-48 at LOU32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts +1
• PITTL 17-41 vs PITT45% → 0%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −48, Clock −2
• NCSUL 22-38 at NCSU23% → 1%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −1
• DUKEW 56-35 vs DUKE63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Florida State's side.

Closest call

LSU 23-24 FSU (2022) - Florida State dropped to a 4.0% win probability before pulling it out.