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FSU

Florida State 26 at Notre Dame 42

ND
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · TEAM pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:25: Chris Tyree run for 45 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:17: Ryan Fitzgerald 26 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +2.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:25: La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:40: Ian Book run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:03FSU 4th & 2 at ND 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29FSU 4th & 11 at ND 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:51ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:45FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20ND 4th & 6 at ND 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:15FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17FSU 4th & 6 at ND 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21ND 4th & 5 at ND 32, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 14, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:31ND 4th & 5 at FSU 27, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:11FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 26, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53ND 4th & 8 at ND 34, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03FSU 4th & 9 at ND 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:55FSU 4th & 8 at ND 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:52ND 4th & 2 at FSU 2, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:33FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 4, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:43ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:10ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:51FSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:38FSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:27ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:25ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:11ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:25FSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:40ND Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2091% → 91%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Brock Wright for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
90.7%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 32 Kyren Williams fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:479% → 10%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
90.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
90.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-4
90.4%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+13
90.3%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
90.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5290% → 90%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
89.9%
Kyren Williams run for 65 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
90.0%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5410% → 11%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
89.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+31
89.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 31 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
89.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-6
89.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
89.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 11
OPP 45
+21
89.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 9 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kevon Glenn) to the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5189% → 90%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
89.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 9 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
89.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
89.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 14 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
90.3%
Kyren Williams run for 46 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5110% → 10%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
89.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-6
89.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
89.9%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-6
89.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Lawrence Keys III returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 19 Lawrence Keys III fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Deonte SheffieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5911% → 13%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
88.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+13
89.0%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.1%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5488% → 87%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.7%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Joe WilkinsSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
87.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, downed at the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5213% → 15%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
87.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 17 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
86.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+48
84.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 48 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5785% → 87%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+36
85.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 36 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
85.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 5 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
86.0%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+6
85.4%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
85.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 17 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.4%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.1%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2014% → 14%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
86.0%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+9
86.0%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0086% → 85%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
85.6%
Braden Lenzy run for 2 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
85.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5215% → 15%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
84.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
84.4%
Travis, Jordan pass complete to Wilson, Ontaria for 5 yards to the FLORIDAST36, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-5
84.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 17
OWN 21
0
85.0%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+9
85.3%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
85.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, downed at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:4085% → 90%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
84.8%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+17
84.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 17 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
85.3%
Chris Tyree run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
89.8%
Chris Tyree run for 45 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 3:5611% → 14%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
88.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
89.2%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
89.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 16 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+16
88.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 16 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
87.7%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
87.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
87.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
87.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+4
88.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 4 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
86.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 0:5388% → 92%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
88.1%
Ian Book run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
88.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
88.8%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
88.8%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+6
89.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 6 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:158% → 15%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
91.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 30 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
90.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 9 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
90.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 13 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
90.0%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
90.0%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:4587% → 94%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
87.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 23
OWN 14
0
87.8%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 23
OWN 14
+11
87.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 11 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+7
87.1%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+5
87.0%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
88.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 38 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.3%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
89.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 13 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
89.3%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to McKinley, Javon, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 9 yards to the FLORIDAST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.9%
Ian Book run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:407% → 7%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
92.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
92.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+3
92.9%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 19
-5
93.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
93.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1595% → 95%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.1%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
95.1%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
95.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Brock Wright for 7 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
95.4%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
95.5%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
95.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
95.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
95.0%
Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
93.7%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+3
94.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
94.4%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
94.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, downed at the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0596% → 95%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
95.6%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-5
95.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+8
95.3%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
95.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 6:196% → 5%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
94.3%
Jordan Travis run for 33 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
93.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
94.1%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+9
94.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Warren Thompson for 9 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.7%
Webb, La'Damian rush for 4 yards to the NOTREDAME31, PENALTY NOTREDAME 12 men on the field 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 5
OPP 30
0
93.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
93.4%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-7
94.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Bo Bauer for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+25
95.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 25 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 4 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
94.6%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 5Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-23
95.0%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Shaun Crawford return for 23 yds to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1597% → 99%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
96.5%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
96.6%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.9%
Kyren Williams run for 13 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
97.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+10
97.5%
Chris Tyree run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
97.5%
Chris Tyree run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
98.2%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
98.2%
Chris Tyree run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.3%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.4%
Braden Lenzy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.5%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.8%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26Uncategorized
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:442% → 2%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
98.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
98.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 6
-2
98.2%
James Blackman sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+14
98.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 14 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
98.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 11 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
98.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jordan Young for 18 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.1
TD · Q2 5:25
Chris Tyree run for 45 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 8:40
Ian Book run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com