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PITT

Pittsburgh 41 at Florida State 17

FSU
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:54 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−7.5Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−2.0Pregame prior−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:09: Nick Patti run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +4.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:57: Nick Patti run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +9.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:35: Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +9.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:01: Parker Grothaus 47 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:32: Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +9.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:31PITT 4th & 11 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:48FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39FSU 4th & 6 at PITT 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:46PITT 4th & 10 at FSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:38FSU 4th & 26 at FSU 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:39FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:06FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:01PITT 4th & 1 at FSU 1, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−11.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:56FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:40PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:05FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:28FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:11FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:09PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:57PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:35PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:32PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:25PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:2255% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
45.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for a loss of 1 yard DJ Turner fumbled, forced by Asante Samuel Jr., recovered by Pitt DJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+2
45.3%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+49
45.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 49 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
45.3%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
45.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+51
45.6%
Alex Kessman 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4846% → 48%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.9%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
46.0%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+22
45.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 22 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
46.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
46.4%
Ontaria Wilson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
46.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 7 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+10
46.6%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
46.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.9%
Wyatt Rector run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0253% → 52%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.6%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
48.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
47.6%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 1 yd to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+52
48.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FLORIDAST 9 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (4 Yards) to the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 0:4449% → 52%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
48.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+9
48.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+88
52.1%
Jordan Travis run for 88 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5948% → 47%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.9%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
52.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
52.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
53.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 58 yds, downed at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2354% → 54%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
53.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
53.9%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+1
53.5%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted A.J. Woods return for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5448% → 52%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
52.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 26 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
52.2%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.2%
Nick Patti run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 28 yds · 4:2050% → 53%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
50.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
50.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
51.7%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 38 Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FlaSt La'Damian WebbSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+9
51.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+9
52.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
53.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-11
53.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 16
50
+15
51.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Young for 15 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
52.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Camren McDonald) to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-7
52.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:2849% → 46%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
51.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Daniel Moraga for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
51.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
51.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
51.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 14 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to A.J. DavisSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+17
51.0%
DJ Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 23
OPP 40
+16
52.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-3
52.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
53.9%
Alex Kessman 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:0854% → 54%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
54.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Camren McDonald) to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
53.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 15
OWN 22
-8
53.7%
Jordan Travis sacked by John Morgan for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 23
OWN 14
-3
54.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 26
OWN 11
+9
53.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds , DJ Turner returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:3147% → 57%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
52.9%
Jordan Addison run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
52.0%
Vincent Davis run for 28 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
52.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.7%
Nick Patti run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5447% → 48%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
47.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
47.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Young for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+3
48.3%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-1
48.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:4057% → 66%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
43.2%
A.J. Davis run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+28
42.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 28 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1235% → 35%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
35.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
34.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
35.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
34.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:1465% → 64%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
35.2%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
34.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+2
35.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 6
OWN 22
-5
35.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (John Morgan) to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
35.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:1933% → 39%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
32.7%
Jordan Travis sacked by Patrick Jones II and SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+15
31.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
32.4%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-10
33.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+26
33.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 11 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
33.9%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
35.4%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+47
39.4%
Parker Grothaus 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3437% → 36%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
36.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
36.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-4
35.5%
James Blackman pass intercepted Damar Hamlin return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:1368% → 78%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
32.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+13
31.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.1%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 5:0525% → 20%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+18
24.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Camren McDonald for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
25.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
25.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
25.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 6 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
25.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
25.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 25
OPP 49
-4
23.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 29
OWN 47
-7
22.3%
Chubba Purdy sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 36
OWN 40
+3
21.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 33
OWN 43
+7
20.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds , DJ Turner returns for 7 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2682% → 82%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
18.3%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
17.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for no gain to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-2
17.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Fabien Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
17.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 54 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5519% → 18%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
19.2%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
19.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
18.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Camren McDonald for 11 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
19.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 5
50
-3
19.6%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
18.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+11
18.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds , DJ Turner returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
14 plays · 78 yds · 6:5285% → 93%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.2%
DJ Turner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
15.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+17
14.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
12.7%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+18
12.4%
A.J. Davis run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
11.9%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
11.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-2
10.9%
Jordan Addison run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+19
9.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 19 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.2%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.0%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.9%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
9.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
7.4%
Alex Kessman 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:417% → 6%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Camren McDonald for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
7.3%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
6.2%
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
6.1%
Chubba Purdy sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
5.7%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Bryan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+3
5.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+6
5.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds , DJ Turner returns for 6 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:1695% → 95%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
5.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
5.5%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
5.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
5.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
4.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Asante Samuel Jr. at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:105% → 1%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.0%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-50
1.2%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Hill return for 50 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
1.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
1.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
1.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Camren McDonald for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
1.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 6 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
1.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
1.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
1.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
1.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27Uncategorized
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
0.8%
Daniel Carter run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
0.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
0.7%
Daniel Carter run for 5 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
0.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
0.5%
Daniel Carter run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
0.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
0.4%
Daniel Carter run for 6 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:32
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 5:57
Nick Patti run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 2:35
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com