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DUKE

Duke 35 at Florida State 56

FSU
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:21 · Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the Duke 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+28.5Pregame prior+1.5Garbage-time factor+11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.9Blowout margin+13.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:59: Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 26 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:51: Mataeo Durant run for 64 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:14: Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:59: Jordan Travis run for 27 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:34: Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:35DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45FSU 4th & 1 at DUKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:51FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:19DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:31FSU 4th & 5 at DUKE 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:55DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:24DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:42DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:21FSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 33, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:27DUKE 4th & 9 at FSU 31, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:09FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:46FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:51FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:54FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:59DUKE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:51DUKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:14DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:59FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:34FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:15FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:46DUKE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:32FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:30DUKE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3563% → 64%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
62.8%
Jordan Travis run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
50
+3
62.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
62.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
63.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
63.1%
Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
63.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 18 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 7 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2736% → 36%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
63.7%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 6Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-3
63.9%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Casey Holman) to the Duke 3Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+9
64.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
64.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
64.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3765% → 69%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
50
+6
64.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-1
65.0%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-7
65.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+11
64.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
64.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
65.7%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+39
65.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 39 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3332% → 32%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
68.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-25
68.4%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Hamsah Nasirildeen return for 25 yds to the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
75.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 14 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 0 yds · 1:4227% → 26%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
73.0%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+3
73.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+9
74.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
73.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dennis SmithSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-5
74.3%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Stinson) to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 15
OWN 31
-5
74.4%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Shaka Heyward) to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
74.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5776% → 83%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.3%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
76.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
77.6%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Lewis) to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
78.0%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
78.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+8
78.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 8 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
82.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 26 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:3615% → 22%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
84.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
84.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 15 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
77.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 26 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5180% → 82%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
81.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
82.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44 Jashaun Corbin fumbled, forced by Leonard Johnson, recovered by Duke Nate ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1121% → 20%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
79.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
80.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick McLendon II) to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
80.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
79.9%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Brendan Gant return for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2584% → 84%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
84.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+24
83.0%
Jordan Travis run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
84.6%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Nate Thompson return for no gain to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
71.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 64 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0375% → 75%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
75.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
75.5%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
74.9%
Tommy Martin punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:1127% → 35%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
73.0%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
73.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
73.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
74.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrian Jones) to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
74.1%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+10
73.9%
Chase Brice run for 10 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
74.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
73.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+39
73.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 39 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
72.8%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
72.9%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1470% → 68%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.0%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
69.2%
Jordan Travis sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+45
68.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 45 yds , Jontavis Robertson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16END OF HALF
18 plays · 19 yds · 2:2931% → 28%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
68.9%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
67.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.3%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
69.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
66.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
66.8%
Chase Brice run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
65.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
66.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrian Jones) to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
66.0%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devery Hamilton) to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-10
67.6%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Monk) to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 30
OPP 38
-10
68.8%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Gray) to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 40
OPP 48
0
69.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 40
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 40
OPP 48
-2
72.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0629% → 29%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
71.3%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
71.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
71.2%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 29 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Brendan Gant, recovered by FlaSt Amari GainerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3375% → 84%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
74.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
84.2%
Jordan Travis run for 27 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2818% → 16%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
82.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
82.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
82.5%
Luca Diamont run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
83.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2785% → 96%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.2%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 5
50
+8
85.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
85.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
86.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chris Rumph II) to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
86.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
86.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
87.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
95.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:325% → 5%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.8%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Eli Pancol for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
94.8%
Luca Diamont run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.8%
Luca Diamont run for 6 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
95.0%
Luca Diamont pass intercepted Travis Jay return for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1496% → 98%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
96.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
96.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+7
95.7%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.2%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+1
97.3%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
97.6%
Parker Grothaus 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:583% → 2%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
97.5%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
97.7%
Luca Diamont run for 1 yd to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
97.9%
Noah Gray run for 1 yd to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Luca Diamont pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-12
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Duke Luca DiamontSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+4
98.3%
Luca Diamont run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+6
98.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 52 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 68 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:200% → 2%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Luca Diamont pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+23
99.8%
Luca Diamont run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
99.8%
Luca Diamont run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.2%
Deon Jackson pass complete to Dennis Smith for 29 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
99.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 73 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-6
99.9%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+28
99.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 28 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Deont Sheffield run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:350% → 1%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+18
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kalen DeLoach) to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+17
99.9%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 17 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.9%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Daniel Karlin run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-4
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 46 yds, downed at the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:51
Mataeo Durant run for 64 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 12:59
Jordan Travis run for 27 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 7:34
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com