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FSU

Florida State 16 at Louisville 48

LOU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:35 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 10 Rodjay Burns fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Ja'Khi Douglas
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+30.6Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor+11.7Blowout margin+17.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:54: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 13 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:47: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 58 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:15: Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:44: James Turner 28 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +4.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:44: Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +6.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 10:29FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37FSU 4th & 18 at LOU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:54FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:15FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44LOU 4th & 10 at FSU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23FSU 4th & 16 at LOU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 35, up 17
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:44FSU 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:15LOU 4th & 11 at FSU 21, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:15FSU 4th & 12 at LOU 45, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:00FSU 4th & 16 at LOU 36, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:45LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 39, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:35FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:08FSU 4th & 7 at LOU 7, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:30FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:29LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:37LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:54LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:47LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:15FSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:44LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:00LOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3032% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
67.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 30 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
67.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+16
67.7%
Jordan Travis run for 16 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
67.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to La'Damian WebbSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
67.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+15
66.4%
Jordan Travis 15 Yd Run (Parker Grothaus Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0167% → 68%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-1
66.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+66
66.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 66 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
67.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
67.3%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
67.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
69.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 70 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
69.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 13 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
68.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+13
68.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 13 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
68.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
68.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Camren McDonald) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 15
50
+17
68.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Young for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-12
68.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30 FLORIDA ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 22
OPP 45
0
68.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+4
69.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
69.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds, downed at the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:1970% → 76%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
69.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+3
69.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+11
69.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 11 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
69.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
70.5%
Cunningham, M. screen pass incomplete to Burns, R., PENALTY FSU holding (Briggs,D) 10 yards to the FSU48, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
70.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 35 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
75.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 13 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
74.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
74.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:3176% → 85%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
75.6%
Maurice Burkley run for 9 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-3
76.1%
Maurice Burkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
76.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 6 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
76.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
77.0%
Maurice Burkley run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
77.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-9
76.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+58
85.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 58 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:3216% → 22%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
84.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
84.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to La'Damian Webb, broken up by Rodjay BurnsSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+14
84.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
84.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jordan Young, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+12
84.5%
Jordan Travis run for 12 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
83.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+14
84.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 14 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+18
83.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 18 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
83.1%
Ontaria Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
83.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+12
84.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.1%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
83.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Young for 5 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:3180% → 88%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
79.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
80.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
80.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
80.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
80.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+42
82.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 42 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-14
83.3%
Hawkins, J. rush for no gain to the FSU1 (Rice,E), PENALTY LOU illegal block 14 yards to the FSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
83.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
83.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
83.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
87.6%
James Turner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2117% → 14%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
83.3%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+13
83.0%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
82.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 16
OPP 32
0
83.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
84.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonald, broken up by Russ YeastSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+50
85.7%
Parker Grothaus 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:2387% → 87%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
87.2%
Maurice Burkley run for 9 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+23
87.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 23 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
88.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Maurice Burkley for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+52
87.3%
James Turner 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
86.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
86.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
85.9%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
85.2%
Ryan Harwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
86.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
87.6%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
87.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren Thompson, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:5088% → 96%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
88.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+8
87.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Javian Hawkins for 8 yds Javian Hawkins fumbled, forced by Dennis Briggs Jr., recovered by Lvile Marshon Ford for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Jarvis Brownlee Jr.Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
88.2%
Cunningham, M. deep pass incomplete to Fitzpatrick, D., PENALTY FSU pass interference (Woodie,R) 15 yards to the LOU48, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
88.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
89.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Raymond Woodie IIISimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+33
88.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 33 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 78 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonald, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
95.4%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 19 FLORIDA ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+15
95.5%
Travis,J sacked for loss of 2 yards to the FSU17 (Montgomery, M.), PENALTY LOU personal foul (Montgomery, M.) 15 yards to the FSU34, 1ST DOWN FSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
95.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+24
95.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 24 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
95.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+16
94.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 16 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
94.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 8 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+1
94.6%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
94.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Lvile 5Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonald, broken up by C.J. AverySimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
95.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 4 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.0%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1398% → 98%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 1
-1
97.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Emmett Rice for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
97.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 18 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-17
97.5%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Jack Fagot return for 17 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5698% → 99%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 7
50
+10
98.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
98.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 20 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ean Pfeifer, broken up by Emmett RiceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
98.4%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
98.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
99.2%
James Turner 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
98.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Young for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+14
98.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
98.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 13 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
98.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-11
98.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+1
98.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
98.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+41
99.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 41 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.5%
Jawon Pass run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+9
99.5%
Pass, J. sideline pass incomplete to Watkins, J. (Woodie,R), PENALTY FSU pass interference (Woodie,R) 9 yards to the FSU2, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Tutu Atwell run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Preston Daniel, broken up by C.J. AverySimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+49
99.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 49 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 5 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Baveon Johnson) to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan Young, broken up by Isaiah HayesSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 18
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Ryan Harwell punt for 35 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marvin WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 10 Rodjay Burns fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:47
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 58 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 8:44
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 6:15
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com