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FSU

Florida State 22 at NC State 38

NCSU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:52 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior+25.0Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:18: Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:32: Bailey Hockman run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:34: Zonovan Knight run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Jashaun Corbin run for 28 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:54: Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 69 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:52FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18FSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:11FSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:05NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:54FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:42FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:42FSU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14FSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:07NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 20, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:09FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 40, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:35NCSU 4th & 8 at FSU 15, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:01NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:18NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:34NCSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:14FSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:09NCSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:54FSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:41FSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5977% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
77.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
77.1%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+8
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
50
+26
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 26 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
77.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+7
77.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
77.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the FlaSt 6 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+21
77.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 21 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
77.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
77.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
77.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+8
77.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 8 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
77.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
77.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
77.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.8%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
77.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
77.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
77.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
77.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
77.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
77.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
77.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
77.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
77.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
77.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+5
77.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
77.3%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
77.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
77.5%
Chubba Purdy run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
77.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4278% → 83%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
78.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 2 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
78.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+14
78.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
83.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:0719% → 20%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
81.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+14
81.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Ontaria Wilson, broken up by Joshua Pierre-LouisSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
81.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+11
81.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
81.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
80.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding (Malik Dunlap) to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.1%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
80.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
80.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+48
80.2%
Parker Grothaus 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
80.4%
Bailey Hockman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
80.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
81.2%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 0
0
79.8%
PENALTY ST holding off-setting, PENALTY FS holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
80.0%
Bailey Hockman run for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-7
80.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the NCSt 49 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Carter) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
79.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, downed at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
80.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+7
81.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
81.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:0882% → 90%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
82.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+19
82.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
83.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+11
84.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 11 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
85.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Amari Gainer) to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
85.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 20 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
85.3%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.1%
Bailey Hockman run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
92.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 8 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
89.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
91.7%
Tate Rodemaker run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
91.5%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 18
OWN 40
-1
92.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Tyler Baker-Williams return for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
89.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-11
89.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Derrick McLendon II) to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+8
89.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 8 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+23
89.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 23 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:0593% → 98%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+4
92.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
92.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
92.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
92.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
92.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+14
92.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 14 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:123% → 7%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
96.9%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
96.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+5
97.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 5
50
+13
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 13 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.0%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
97.0%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Camren McDonald, broken up by Shyheim BattleSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 9 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+28
93.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 28 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
96.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 39 yds , Travis Jay returns for no gain to the FlaSt 45 Travis Jay fumbled, recovered by NCSt Anthony SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:2497% → 99%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
96.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 20 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
96.8%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
99.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 24 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Chubba Purdy run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.6%
Chubba Purdy run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34 Chubba Purdy fumbled, forced by Cecil Powell, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.7%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 39 La'Damian Webb fumbled, forced by Terrell Dawkins, recovered by FlaSt Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
99.7%
Chubba Purdy sacked by C.J. Hart Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+7
99.7%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+2
99.6%
Trent Pennix run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40 FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
99.6%
Porter Rooks run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cary Angeline, broken up by Sidney WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted, touchback. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:320% → 3%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
99.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+69
96.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 69 yds for a TD (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:1998% → 100%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
98.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 36 yds to the NCSTATE 25 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Zonovan Knight) to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.4%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+20
98.5%
Jordan Houston run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
98.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
98.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 15 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
98.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
99.5%
Christopher Dunn 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:471% → 3%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
99.4%
Chubba Purdy sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 21 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
99.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 18 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
99.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malik Dunlap) to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
99.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Keyshawn Helton) to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+24
97.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Warren Thompson for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:34
Zonovan Knight run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 13:18
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q3 5:14
Jashaun Corbin run for 28 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com