Try the model
FLA

Florida 19 at Florida State 24

FSU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:48 · Mario Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Fla 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+5.9Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential+0.7Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:12: Treon Harris pass intercepted for a TD Terrance Smith return for 94 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 10 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:14: Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:47: Treon Harris pass complete to Clay Burton for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +11.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 3:23: Roberto Aguayo 37 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:37FLA 4th & 6 at FSU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25FLA 4th & 6 at FSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15FLA 4th & 8 at FSU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:17FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 33, up 12
    Numbers favored punt by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:16FLA 4th & 8 at FSU 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:12FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:11FLA 4th & 22 at FLA 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−4.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:08FLA 4th & 11 at FSU 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:48FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:42FLA 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−3.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−13.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:23FSU 4th & 3 at FLA 20, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%−2.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−22.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:42FLA 4th & 10 at midfield, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 7 at FLA 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:12FSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:12FSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:14FSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:47FLA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1977% → 77%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
77.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+5
77.0%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
76.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 4 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
76.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+15
76.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Chris Thompson) to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Jabari Gorman return for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5324% → 24%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
76.5%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
76.4%
Austin Hardin 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3176% → 76%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
76.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Quincy Wilson return for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:1524% → 26%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
75.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
75.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Latroy Pittman for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.2%
Brandon Powell run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
74.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
74.6%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
74.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
74.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
74.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Kelvin TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
73.9%
Austin Hardin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1375% → 73%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+21
74.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
74.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 16
OWN 22
-1
74.4%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+1
74.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 1 yd to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+5
73.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dante Fowler) to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
73.5%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
73.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 43 yds , Andre Debose returns for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:2028% → 31%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
72.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for 42 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
71.0%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
70.7%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-5
70.2%
Treon Harris pass complete to Brandon Powell for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
69.4%
Austin Hardin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3669% → 69%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
68.9%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 2
0
68.5%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Brian Poole return for no gain to the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+94
71.0%
Treon Harris pass intercepted for a TD Terrance Smith return for 94 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5227% → 28%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.6%
Kelvin Taylor run for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
71.9%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
72.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 12 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
71.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
70.7%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
70.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
71.7%
Kyle Christy punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 4:5872% → 79%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
72.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+10
72.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
72.0%
Karlos Williams run for 27 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
73.3%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-2
73.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
73.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
73.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
73.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+29
72.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 29 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
74.2%
Jameis Winston run for 3 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
74.0%
Jameis Winston run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 10 Jameis Winston fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Jameis WinstonSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 10 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2022% → 24%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.7%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.7%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+14
78.2%
Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 14 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 1 yd to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
76.8%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
76.3%
Treon Harris pass intercepted Lamarcus Brutus return for no gain to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:2478% → 87%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
77.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
78.4%
Jameis Winston run for 6 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
79.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 19 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
79.8%
Jameis Winston run for 6 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+10
79.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
79.7%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4315% → 14%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
85.4%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.6%
Kyle Christy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:1785% → 84%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Erving) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+3
84.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 12
OWN 33
-13
83.8%
Cason Beatty run for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 15 Cason Beatty fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Cason BeattySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
72.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Clay Burton for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
76.9%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2428% → 32%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
72.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-1
71.1%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+9
71.5%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
70.7%
Treon Harris run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
69.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+16
69.3%
Treon Harris pass complete to Latroy Pittman for 16 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
68.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-7
68.8%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 10 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+6
70.2%
Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 6 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
69.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Latroy PittmanSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
68.5%
Austin Hardin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4370% → 68%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
70.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-10
68.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Erving) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+9
68.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
67.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:5434% → 31%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
67.0%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+14
67.6%
Treon Harris run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
65.1%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 44 Treon Harris fumbled, recovered by Fla Treon HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
66.1%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-10
67.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Moore) to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+1
68.4%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
69.5%
Kyle Christy punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2969% → 69%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
68.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+45
68.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 30 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
72.5%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+3
70.2%
Jameis Winston run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+27
69.4%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Brian Poole return for 27 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0339% → 33%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
61.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-7
61.0%
Demarcus Robinson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 27 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Latroy Pittman) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 14
OPP 37
-15
64.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Latroy Pittman) to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 29
OWN 48
+9
65.4%
Treon Harris run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+9
65.8%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
67.0%
Austin Hardin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1269% → 69%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
68.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
72.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+8
72.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
72.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
73.4%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-8
73.1%
Jameis Winston sacked by Dante Fowler and Darious Cummings for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.7%
Mario Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23MISSED FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:5834% → 35%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+41
65.8%
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 41 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
59.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-3
61.2%
Treon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 18
OPP 33
0
62.2%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+8
64.9%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
65.3%
Austin Hardin 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:5669% → 88%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dante Fowler) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
70.4%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
66.4%
Jameis Winston run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
69.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
72.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
76.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 17 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
77.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-5
77.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 16
OPP 33
-2
76.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+15
74.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
87.7%
Roberto Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 28 yds · 1:3324% → 14%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
76.4%
Treon Harris run for 11 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.9%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
74.9%
Treon Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
76.7%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Clay BurtonSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+15
84.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyler Hunter) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
50
0
77.5%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
50
0
78.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
50
0
80.5%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 10
50
0
85.8%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3695% → 96%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
50
0
94.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
50
+3
95.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+15
95.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 34 yds , Andre Debose returns for 15 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 3:23
Roberto Aguayo 37 yd FG GOOD
+12.9
TD · Q2 0:47
Treon Harris pass complete to Clay Burton for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 2:14
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com