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ND

Notre Dame 27 at Florida State 31

FSU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:53 · Cason Beatty punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+30.2Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:37: Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:26: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +18.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:38: Karlos Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:40: Kyle Brindza 46 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +7.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:39: Karlos Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +29.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:25ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:30ND 4th & 1 at FSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:53FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:00ND 4th & 1 at FSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:23FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:27ND 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:46FSU 4th & 9 at ND 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:39ND 4th & 2 at FSU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:42ND 4th & 7 at ND 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:41FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−4.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:40ND 4th & 11 at FSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:12ND 4th & 8 at FSU 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:53FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−3.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:09ND 4th & 18 at ND 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:06ND 4th & 18 at FSU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−15.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−11.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:10ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:19FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:00ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:37FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:26ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:38FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:39FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick Mitchell) to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
83.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.9%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+17
82.6%
Kyle Brindza punt for 47 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 17 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5583% → 82%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
82.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
82.3%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
82.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5318% → 18%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey Robinson, broken up by Nate AndrewsSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
82.2%
Everett Golson sacked by Eddie Goldman for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+23
82.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 23 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
81.7%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
81.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
81.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-1
81.6%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by NDame Everett GolsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2782% → 81%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
81.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
81.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
81.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
81.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 6:3019% → 26%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
81.1%
Tarean Folston run for 12 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tyler Hunter) to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
80.7%
Tarean Folston run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
80.4%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
80.1%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
79.9%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
79.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
78.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+1
78.8%
Everett Golson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
78.4%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Darby, Ronald) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
78.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Matt Hegarty) to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
78.1%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.8%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4175% → 80%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
75.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 23 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
76.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 33 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
76.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Erving) to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
75.9%
Jameis Winston run for 3 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
79.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 11 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7INT
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:1922% → 25%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
77.8%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+2
77.7%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
77.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 26 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
76.3%
Tarean Folston run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
75.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
75.4%
Greg Bryant run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
75.5%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Jacob Pugh return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
77.6%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Joe Schmidt return for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:3425% → 31%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
75.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 22 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2271% → 69%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
71.3%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+2
70.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
69.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
69.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4732% → 33%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.5%
Everett Golson run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
67.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
67.2%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 1
50
0
67.4%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:3470% → 70%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
50
+8
70.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 8 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
69.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
69.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
69.5%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
69.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 9 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
68.9%
Karlos Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
68.5%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
68.0%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
66.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
70.2%
Roberto Aguayo 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:5631% → 44%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. Prosise, broken up by Jalen RamseySimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
69.2%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+12
67.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 12 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
65.6%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
64.0%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
63.4%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
63.3%
Everett Golson run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
62.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
61.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+8
61.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 8 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
61.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 8 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
60.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Tarean FolstonSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
61.2%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Tarean Folston, broken up by Jalen RamseySimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
55.7%
Kyle Brindza 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
57.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0859% → 74%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
59.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+16
58.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.8%
Jameis Winston run for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+13
60.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
61.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
61.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
60.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Erving) to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+19
59.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 19 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.0%
Freddie Stevenson run for no gain to the NDame 10Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
74.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:5533% → 56%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
67.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 23 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
64.4%
Tarean Folston run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
63.4%
Amir Carlisle run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 49 Amir Carlisle fumbled, forced by Terrance Smith, recovered by NDame Ben KoyackSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+30
63.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 30 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
61.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Christian Lombard) to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+13
61.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 13 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
44.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3751% → 72%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
52.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarron Jones) to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
50.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 21 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
54.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 20 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
55.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
54.3%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
53.8%
Jameis Winston run for 8 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
49.7%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Greene, Rashad, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Riggs, Cody) 3 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.7%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2939% → 36%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
61.0%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
60.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
61.8%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
64.1%
Kyle Brindza punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4965% → 60%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
65.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-8
65.0%
Jameis Winston sacked by Romeo Okwara for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 8
-4
62.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre' Jackson) to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 19
OWN 4
+5
61.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 14
OWN 9
+5
60.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 54 yds , Cody Riggs returns for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:0143% → 55%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
57.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Nick Martin) to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+4
60.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
58.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+15
56.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lorenzo Featherston) to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
55.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-7
52.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Koyack) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+9
54.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
53.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
52.1%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
52.6%
Everett Golson sacked by Chris Casher for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
45.0%
Kyle Brindza 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4648% → 81%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
47.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
51.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 11 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
52.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
50.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+16
49.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
52.5%
Karlos Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
52.2%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+15
49.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 15 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.5%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:1829% → 28%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
71.4%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+23
71.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 23 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
67.2%
Tarean Folston run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
68.0%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
68.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
70.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
72.4%
Kyle Brindza punt for 32 yds, downed at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0784% → 84%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
83.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 15
OWN 2
+5
84.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-3
85.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+6
84.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
84.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24INT
16 plays · 31 yds · 2:4229% → 11%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben Koyack, broken up by Terrance SmithSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
74.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-6
78.1%
Everett Golson sacked by Terrance Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+20
82.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
80.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 17 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey Robinson, broken up by Ronald DarbySimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
75.8%
Everett Golson run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
75.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for no gain to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
80.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
83.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 6 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-16
85.4%
Golson, Everett pass complete to Robinson, Corey for 2 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 16 yards to the FLORIDAST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
0
89.0%
Everett Golson pass intercepted, touchback. Jacob Pugh return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:0695% → 95%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
94.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Terrance Smith) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-3
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:39
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+29.9
TD · Q3 3:38
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+22
TD · Q3 7:26
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com