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FSU

Florida State 42 at Louisville 31

LOU
2014 · Week 10 · Oct 30, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:59 · Cason Beatty punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−22.0Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:09: Gerald Christian 11 Yd pass from Will Gardner (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +21.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:17: Dalvin Cook 40 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +19.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:48: Ermon Lane 47 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +26.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:20: Michael Dyer 1 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +29.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:46: Dalvin Cook 38 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +54.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:40LOU 4th & 2 at FSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:10LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:59FSU 4th & 8 at LOU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:28FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.7%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:22LOU 4th & 10 at FSU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:33LOU 4th & 10 at FSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:29LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:03FSU 4th & 19 at LOU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−4.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−10.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:55FSU 4th & 18 at LOU 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:55LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−9.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:37LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 12:13LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:11LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:09LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33FSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:51FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:17FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:48FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:20LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:46FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:11FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:5823% → 24%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
23.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 71 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
23.7%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
24.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
24.2%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:3676% → 74%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
24.5%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
24.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+10
24.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
25.0%
Karlos Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+8
25.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
25.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+8
25.3%
Karlos Williams run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
25.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
26.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Karlos Williams) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
26.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
26.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 53 yds , James Quick returns for no gain to the Lvile 37 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (James Quick) to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5726% → 27%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
26.1%
Michael Dyer run for 7 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+7
26.5%
Michael Dyer run for 7 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
26.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
26.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
26.9%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
26.7%
Ryan Johnson punt for 44 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0373% → 72%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
27.2%
Jameis Winston sacked by B.J. Dubose for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 21
OWN 20
0
27.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'Leary, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+10
27.9%
Karlos Williams run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
28.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 54 yds, fair catch by James Quick at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4828% → 29%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
28.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to L.J. Scott for 11 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
28.4%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
28.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 9 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
28.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0171% → 70%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
28.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+20
28.5%
Jameis Winston run for 20 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.0%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
28.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
28.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
29.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2831% → 40%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
30.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 11 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
31.2%
Michael Dyer run for 17 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
32.3%
Michael Dyer run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
33.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
33.7%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
34.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 12 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+3
35.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offside Defense (Eddie Goldman) to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.3%
Michael Dyer 4 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
16 plays · 39 yds · 4:2462% → 59%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
38.3%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
38.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
39.4%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
39.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
39.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Karlos Williams) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+11
39.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 11 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
40.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
39.2%
Karlos Williams run for 14 yds to the LOUISVILLE 48 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jesus Wilson) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 6
OWN 42
0
39.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
39.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
40.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
40.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
40.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Nick O'Leary) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+9
41.4%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted James Burgess return for 9 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1346% → 56%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
45.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
47.1%
Michael Dyer run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
47.5%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
48.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 8 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
55.6%
Michael Dyer 12 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.1%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4756% → 82%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.9%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
56.1%
Michael Dyer run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
56.9%
Michael Dyer run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+9
58.4%
L.J. Scott run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
59.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+9
60.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 9 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
81.7%
Gerald Christian 11 Yd pass from Will Gardner (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:2323% → 37%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
77.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 17 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
76.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 21 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
75.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 30 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'Leary, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
74.0%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 0
OWN 1
0
63.1%
Karlos Williams run for no gain Karlos Williams fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Nick O'Leary for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
66.1%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.4%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40 Gerod Holliman fumbled, forced by Jameis Winston, recovered by FlaSt Travis RudolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4936% → 35%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
64.5%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
63.1%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
64.1%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
65.1%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5870% → 76%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
69.8%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+31
70.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 31 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
72.3%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
72.5%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Tyler HunterSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
71.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
75.9%
John Wallace 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1224% → 36%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
76.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
76.0%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+68
63.8%
Travis Rudolph 68 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5265% → 64%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
64.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to Charles Standberry for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tyler Hunter) to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
67.3%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
66.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Ronald DarbySimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
64.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0935% → 55%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
65.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
65.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 12 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
65.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
64.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+40
44.7%
Dalvin Cook 40 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4152% → 51%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli Rogers, broken up by Jalen RamseySimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.4%
Michael Dyer run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
53.0%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
50.9%
Ryan Johnson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:2050% → 43%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
50.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
48.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
49.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
50.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 19 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
47.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
47.4%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
47.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-10
50.2%
Winston, Jameis pass complete to O'Leary, Nick for 14 yards to the LOUISVILLE0, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Hart, Bobby) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 19
OPP 24
0
52.9%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+41
56.8%
Roberto Aguayo 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1956% → 60%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
55.5%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
56.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 9 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
57.6%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
64.0%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
61.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by P.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+7
60.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 32 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 7 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:3643% → 72%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
57.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 18 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
54.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus Wilson, broken up by Nick Dawson-BrentsSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+47
27.7%
Ermon Lane 47 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:0933% → 72%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+51
33.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 51 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
40.6%
Michael Dyer run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
40.9%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
41.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.9%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.5%
Michael Dyer 1 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:1239% → 34%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
60.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.9%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
61.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
57.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
56.6%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
54.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad Greene, broken up by Terell FloydSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-12
57.6%
Jameis Winston sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin and Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 18
OPP 44
0
65.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Eli Rogers at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5170% → 73%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
69.6%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-4
69.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Jamon Brown) to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
70.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Michael DyerSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+1
72.0%
Michael Dyer run for 1 yd to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+4
72.9%
Ryan Johnson punt for 31 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
18.0%
Dalvin Cook 38 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:5730% → 28%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
29.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 14 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
28.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 8 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
31.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
27.6%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:1687% → 95%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
13.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
12.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+35
4.7%
Freddie Stevenson 35 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:034% → 2%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
3.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
3.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 9 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
4.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Chris CasherSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+16
4.2%
L.J. Scott run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald Christian, broken up by Tyler HunterSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-12
4.3%
Will Gardner sacked by Eddie Goldman for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 22
OWN 49
0
2.4%
Will Gardner pass intercepted Reggie Northrup return for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 35
-3
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:46
Dalvin Cook 38 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
-54.9
TD · Q4 9:20
Michael Dyer 1 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)
+29.6
TD · Q4 12:48
Ermon Lane 47 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
-26.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com