Fresno State

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1765th
  Defense+0.1145th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.8%64th
  Defense41.4%56th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3070th
  Defense+1.2458th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1466th
  Defense+0.0849th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2861st
  Defense+0.2345th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.4%39th
  Defense45.6%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.0%93rd
  Defense32.7%20th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9730th
  Defense3.1439th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.2%16th
  Defense17.5%54th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.5%77th
  Defense15.8%41st

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Fresno State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PUR
2. W
   EWU
3. W
   ASU
4. W
   KENT
5. W
   NEV
6. L
   WYO
7. W
   USU
8. W
   UNLV
9. W
   BOIS
10. L
    SJSU
11. L
    UNM
12. L
    SDSU
13. W
    NMSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Fresno State.

Players, 2023

1. Mikey KeeneQB336 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 88th of 250 QBs
   1.01WAR0.26 to 1.82
2. Malik SherrodRB178 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 34th of 383 RBs
   0.41WAR0.25 to 0.53
3. Jalen MossWR46 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 63rd of 457 WRs
   0.22WAR0.13 to 0.31
4. Elijah GilliamRB58 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 203rd of 383 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
5. Tre WatsonTE35 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 46th of 212 TEs
   0.11WAR0.05 to 0.18
6. Dylan LynchPK20 plays · +0.295 pts/play · 29th of 113 kickers
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.15
7. Logan FifeQB92 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 214th of 250 QBs
   0.10WAR−0.10 to 0.32
8. Erik BrooksWR44 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 180th of 457 WRs
   0.10WAR0.03 to 0.20

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Fresno State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  55555578th of 130Roster talent: 555, 78th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15415480th of 130Recruiting: 154, 80th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  17%17%120th of 128Returning production: 17%, 120th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +2.5+2.559th of 130SP+ rating: +2.5, 59th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Fresno State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ3 13:30 4th & 1 at FRES 29, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. vs BOISQ4 10:00 4th & 2 at BOIS 6, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
3. vs BOISQ3 1:27 4th & 1 at FRES 33, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. vs UNLVQ3 2:23 4th & 2 at UNLV 18, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs UNLVQ3 13:12 4th & 3 at midfield, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at PURQ2 0:57 4th & 3 at PUR 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs UNMQ4 3:25 4th & 10 at UNM 27, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at SDSUQ3 6:37 4th & 2 at FRES 44, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

47th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Fresno State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PUR
2. W

   EWU
3. W

   ASU
4. W

   KENT
5. W

   NEV
6. L

   WYO
7. W

   USU
8. W

   UNLV
9. W

   BOIS
10. L

    SJSU
11. L

    UNM
12. L

    SDSU
13. W

    NMSU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Fresno State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.36
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts−0.13
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.00

Game by game

• PURW 39-35 at PUR33% → 3%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −1
• EWUW 34-31 vs EWU98% → 80%Before kickoff +48 · On the field −17: Scoreboard +13, Timeouts −9
• ASUW 29-0 at ASU54% → 100%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +50
• KENTW 53-10 vs KENT96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• NEVW 27-9 vs NEV95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +11
• WYOL 19-24 at WYO63% → 5%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −5
• USUW 37-32 at USU65% → 94%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +44, Clock +3
• UNLVW 31-24 vs UNLV76% → 96%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• BOISW 37-30 vs BOIS49% → 97%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• SJSUL 18-42 at SJSU42% → 1%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts +1
• UNML 17-25 vs UNM93% → 3%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −91: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• SDSUL 18-33 at SDSU58% → 1%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts −2
• NMSUW 37-10 vs NMSU38% → 100%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +56, Possession & field position −1

Points of win probability, from Fresno State's side.

Closest call

FRES 39-35 PUR (2023) - Fresno State dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.