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UNLV

UNLV 24 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Carson King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:33: Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +11.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:38: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +12.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 5:59: Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +12.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:03: Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:22: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 15 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +9.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:37FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:44UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:51UNLV 4th & 5 at FRES 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:39FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:00UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:12FRES 4th & 3 at midfield, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:23FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 18, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−1.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−11.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:03FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−11.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:08UNLV 4th & 1 at FRES 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−4.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:14UNLV 4th & 2 at FRES 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−7.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−17.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:33FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 10, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:33UNLV 4th & 6 at FRES 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:41FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:33UNLV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:38FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:59FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:03FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:22UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1525% → 25%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
75.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+15
75.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 15 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
75.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
75.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
75.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
75.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:5875% → 77%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
75.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
75.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 4 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
75.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
75.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
75.2%
Jaelen Gill run for 6 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
75.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
75.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
76.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 31 yds for a TD UNLV Penalty, Roughing the Passer of (15 Yards) to the UNLV 0 (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:1924% → 29%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.9%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
76.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
76.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 5 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
75.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
76.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
75.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 6 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+12
75.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 12 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.4%
Donavyn Lester run for no gain to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
70.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 41 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3773% → 71%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
72.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
72.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
71.3%
Carson King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
71.1%
Donavyn Lester run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
71.3%
Courtney Reese run for 8 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
70.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
71.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4572% → 71%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
71.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
71.1%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0831% → 32%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.1%
Donavyn Lester run for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+13
68.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 18 yds to the FRES 13 UNLV Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Vincent Davis Jr.) to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+14
69.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 14 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
68.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the FRES 16Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
68.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Vincent Davis Jr. for 4 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
69.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
68.3%
Jose Pizano 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2969% → 67%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.3%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 9 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-10
69.9%
SHERROD, Malik rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the FST40 (THOMPKINS, Fred). PENALTY FST Holding enforced 10 yards from the FST36 to the FST26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+1
68.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Carson King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 4:3933% → 34%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
67.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
67.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+9
68.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
67.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
66.1%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
65.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-10
66.0%
QB Keeper MAIAVA, Jayden rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the FST46, out of bounds. PENALTY LAS Holding enforced 10 yards from the LAS44 to the LAS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
68.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
65.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1165% → 63%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
64.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
62.8%
Carson King punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:1638% → 55%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
61.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
61.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 17 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
58.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 1 yd to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+9
58.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
57.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+15
57.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 15 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
56.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 22 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4248% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
48.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 20 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
49.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
49.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
50.3%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 3
50
0
46.6%
Carson King punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:3450% → 63%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+7
50.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
50.3%
Mikey Keene sacked by Cameron Oliver for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 9Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
50.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4542% → 42%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.3%
Donavyn Lester run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
58.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
59.3%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Tuasivi Nomura for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
58.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5458% → 76%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+60
58.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 60 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
63.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 8 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
63.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
61.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
63.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
63.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
76.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3828% → 29%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Jayden Maiava run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
72.2%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
73.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 9 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.9%
Jayden Maiava pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5877% → 83%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
77.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 15 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
78.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
78.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
76.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
82.6%
Dylan Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31 Jai'Den Thomas fumbled, recovered by FRES Dean Clark [NHSG] THOMAS, Jai'Den rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards, THOMAS, Jai'Den fumbled at LAS31 forced by JOHNSON, Isaiah, recovered by FST CLARK, Dean at the LAS31, returned 0 yards to the LAS31, End of Play, clock 02:14 (After review, play stands as called on the field).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1185% → 94%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
84.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+20
83.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 20 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
84.9%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+6
84.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
84.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+7
84.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
93.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:389% → 19%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
91.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 7 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+7
90.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 7 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+38
90.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 38 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
89.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 10 yds to the FRES 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.3%
Jayden Maiava run for 3 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
89.8%
LESTER, Donavyn rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the FST0, TOUCHDOWN LAS, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:33 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LAS Holding enforced 10 yards from the FST5 to the FST15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
90.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
80.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 15 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0886% → 88%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+7
85.5%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for GILL, Jaelen thrown to the FST35. PENALTY LAS Pass Interference on ELAD, Jett enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the FST32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
87.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
87.8%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 5:5322% → 16%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
78.5%
Timothy Conerly run for 5 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
77.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
80.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+8
82.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 8 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
78.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 1 yd to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+24
78.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 24 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
78.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the FRES 3Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 1 yd to the FRES 2Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 2Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4191% → 93%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
91.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
91.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 5Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+5
94.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
93.1%
Carson King punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25INT
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:3011% → 14%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
88.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 12 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
87.2%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
87.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 2 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-1
87.2%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+9
89.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 9 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.9%
Courtney Reese run for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
86.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 19 yds to the FRES 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.4%
Jayden Maiava pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
96.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST8 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:59
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q3 10:38
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 0:33
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com