Fresno State

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1257th
  Defense−0.0183rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.2%70th
  Defense41.9%50th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+0.991st
  Defense+1.0296th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0232nd
  Defense−0.1095th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2981st
  Defense+0.0864th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.4%85th
  Defense48.6%33rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.8%22nd
  Defense27.6%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7834th
  Defense2.8156th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.1%88th
  Defense21.8%69th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.5%98th
  Defense17.2%60th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Fresno State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UIW
2. L
   ALA
3. L
   WASH
4. W
   NEV
5. W
   SJSU
6. W
   UNM
7. W
   SDSU
8. L
   UNLV
9. W
   BYU
10. W
    HAW
11. W
    WYO
12. W
    BOIS
13. L
    BOIS
14. W
    HOU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Fresno State.

Players, 2017

1. Marcus McMaryionQB352 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 47th of 226 QBs
   1.42WAR0.80 to 2.10
2. Jordan MimsRB128 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 74th of 352 RBs
   0.36WAR0.27 to 0.43
3. Josh HokitRB108 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 122nd of 352 RBs
   0.27WAR0.18 to 0.34
4. Jimmy CamachoPK20 plays · +0.468 pts/play · 10th of 110 kickers
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.23
5. KeeSean JohnsonWR93 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 65th of 426 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
6. Ronnie RiversRB78 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 202nd of 352 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.21
7. Da'Mari ScottWR74 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 179th of 426 WRs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.16
8. Jamire JordanWR35 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 242nd of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Fresno State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  37537592nd of 130Roster talent: 375, 92nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13913980th of 130Recruiting: 139, 80th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%12th of 128Returning production: 86%, 12th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −2.7−2.781st of 128SP+ rating: −2.7, 81st of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Fresno State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs BOISQ2 0:05 4th & 1 at BOIS 5, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
2. at HAWQ4 8:57 4th & 6 at HAW 36, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs BOISQ4 14:18 4th & 2 at BOIS 23, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. at BOISQ4 12:34 4th & 9 at BOIS 37, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at HOUQ2 4:02 4th & 5 at HOU 39, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at SJSUQ3 11:43 4th & 1 at FRES 15, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at HOUQ2 9:45 4th & 2 at HOU 10, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs BOISQ1 3:15 4th & 1 at FRES 30, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

5th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Fresno State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UIW
2. L

   ALA
3. L

   WASH
4. W

   NEV
5. W

   SJSU
6. W

   UNM
7. W

   SDSU
8. L

   UNLV
9. W

   BYU
10. W

    HAW
11. W

    WYO
12. W

    BOIS
13. L

    BOIS
14. W

    HOU

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Fresno State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.74
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.65

Game by game

• UIWW 66-0 vs UIW98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• ALAL 10-41 at ALA1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• WASHL 16-48 at WASH2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• NEVW 41-21 vs NEV75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• SJSUW 27-10 at SJSU89% → 98%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +20
• UNMW 38-0 vs UNM48% → 100%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +49
• SDSUW 27-3 at SDSU33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +63, Clock +1
• UNLVL 16-26 vs UNLV92% → 5%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −88: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• BYUW 20-13 vs BYU79% → 97%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• HAWW 31-21 at HAW76% → 93%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• WYOW 13-7 at WYO60% → 87%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +39, Clock +3
• BOISW 28-17 vs BOIS35% → 99%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +50
• BOISL 14-17 at BOIS27% → 5%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• HOUW 33-27 at HOU45% → 95%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +52, Clock +4

Points of win probability, from Fresno State's side.

Closest call

FRES 39-35 PUR (2023) - Fresno State dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.