2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreFRES score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Robert Burns run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:18: Aaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CONN win probability +12.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 2:20: Devontae Houston run for 17 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +52.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18: Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34 — FRES win probability +17.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 01:31 — CONN win probability +13.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20: Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 01:20 — CONN win probability +9.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:10CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 20, tiedClose callPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:04CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 37, tiedClose callPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it10.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:21FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 27, tiedClose callPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it89.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:06CONN 4th & 7 at FRES 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%90% to makePunt11.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:02FRES 4th & 22 at CONN 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it82.9%−0.88% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q2 9:33CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q2 4:51CONN 4th & 10 at FRES 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call18.0%88% to makePunt14.2%−3.8average punt
- Q2 1:57FRES 4th & 1 at CONN 49, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 4:18FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 25, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snapGo for it66.6%−5.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q3 2:42CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 42, down 2Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it32.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 0:39FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 29, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snapGo for it71.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%−1.6average punt
- Q4 11:55CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 29, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it29.6%−3.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q4 8:26FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 44, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snapGo for it60.3%−7.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q4 1:25FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 30, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.7%20% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.8%−2.0average punt
- Q4 0:00CONN 4th & 2 at FRES 22, up 5Close callWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.3%−0.957% to convertField goal83.3%72% to makePunt81.3%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 0 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 12:50FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.6%97% to makeGo for two84.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:18CONN Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick30.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call30.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:20CONN Touchdown, up 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call76.7%−1.097% to makeGo for two77.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:466% → 6%
Q1 13:10
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
6.0%
George Caratan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 32 yds · 2:4594% → 93%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
6.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
6.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
6.0%
FIFE, Logan sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the FST36 (BOUYER-RANDLE, Brandon). PENALTY UCO Face mask on WATTS, Eric enforced 15 yards from the FST44 to the UCO41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+23
6.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 23 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-12
6.8%
run for a loss of 12 yards to the UConn 30 Logan Fife fumbled, recovered by UConn Pryce YatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:217% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4393% → 92%
Q1 7:21
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+25
8.2%
Carson King punt for 45 yds , Victor Rosa returns for 25 yds to the UCONN 48 FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Raymond Pauwels) to the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5FG8 plays · 24 yds · 3:159% → 10%
Q1 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
8.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Malachi Langley) to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 4:5890% → 86%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+10
10.2%
FIFE, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the FST31. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on BELL, Malcolm enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the FST33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
9.8%
FIFE, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the UCO46. PENALTY UCO Offsides on STAFFORD, Jelani enforced 5 yards from the FST39 to the FST44 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
9.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
9.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-4
12.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD10 plays · 31 yds · 4:2913% → 13%
Q2 14:02
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+4
12.8%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the UConn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+14
12.8%
TURNER, Zion pass to the right incomplete intended for JOLY, Justin thrown to the UCO36. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on LUX, Bralyn enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the UCO30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+87
13.2%
George Caratan punt for 52 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 87 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FG11 plays · 76 yds · 4:3713% → 18%
Q2 9:28
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+15
13.3%
TURNER, Zion sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the UCO24 (PAYNE, Leonard;FOX, Andres). PENALTY FST Face mask on PAYNE, Leonard enforced 15 yards from the UCO34 to the UCO49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+39
16.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 39 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4784% → 83%
CONNDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1921% → 24%
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
21.3%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11INT2 plays · 27 yds · 0:2083% → 84%
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
17.8%
FIFE, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the UCO26. PENALTY UCO Holding on BELL, Malcolm enforced 10 yards from the FST38 to the FST48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0383% → 89%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
17.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 32 yds to the UConn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
16.4%
FIFE, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen broken up by WORTHAM, Tre at the UCO0. PENALTY UCO Offsides on MCDUFFIE, Sokoya enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the UCO6 to the UCO3 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14FUMBLE8 plays · 55 yds · 3:4413% → 16%
Q3 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+16
12.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 16 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
14.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (David Perales) to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+12
15.9%
Devontae Houston run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 22 Devontae Houston fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Elijah GatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15INT3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0187% → 88%
CONNDrive 16TD7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4317% → 30%
Q3 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.2%
Aaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0077% → 73%
Q3 4:18
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
26.9%
Carson King punt for 40 yds , Victor Rosa returns for no gain to the UConn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3627% → 26%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
25.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Daniel Taumalolo) to the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0374% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:4431% → 30%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+8
29.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-10
30.6%
TURNER, Zion scrambles up the middle for a gain of 50 yards to the FST15 (BAILEY, Levelle), out of bounds. PENALTY UCO Holding on SENN, Valentin enforced 10 yards from the UCO35 to the UCO25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:2972% → 67%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
26.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
50
-10
24.3%
Logan Fife sacked by Jelani Stafford for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+4
28.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD11 plays · 94 yds · 6:0636% → 90%
FRESDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5328% → 14%
CONNDrive 24END OF GAME7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:20
Devontae Houston run for 17 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+52.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34
-17.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31
Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 01:31
+13.6