Fresno State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1872nd
  Defense+0.0762nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.0%81st
  Defense39.0%78th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1312th
  Defense+1.2639th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1155th
  Defense+0.1225th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3483rd
  Defense+0.1084th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.8%85th
  Defense43.0%87th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.2%58th
  Defense31.8%35th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9935th
  Defense3.1537th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.1%82nd
  Defense18.9%68th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.0%91st
  Defense19.3%87th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Fresno State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CP
2. L
   ORST
3. L
   USC
4. L
   CONN
5. L
   BOIS
6. W
   SJSU
7. W
   UNM
8. W
   SDSU
9. W
   HAW
10. W
    UNLV
11. W
    NEV
12. W
    WYO
13. W
    BOIS
14. W
    WSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Fresno State.

Players, 2022

1. Jake HaenerQB252 plays · +0.200 pts/play · 83rd of 234 QBs
   0.94WAR0.50 to 1.46
2. Jordan MimsRB181 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 23rd of 384 RBs
   0.57WAR0.40 to 0.72
3. Zane PopeWR34 plays · +0.288 pts/play · 75th of 455 WRs
   0.18WAR0.13 to 0.23
4. Jalen Moreno-CropperWR71 plays · +0.059 pts/play · 269th of 455 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.04 to 0.21
5. Nikko RemigioWR63 plays · +0.064 pts/play · 277th of 455 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.03 to 0.18
6. Erik BrooksWR22 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 294th of 455 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
7. Logan FifeQB127 plays · +0.026 pts/play · 211th of 234 QBs
   0.06WAR−0.24 to 0.38
8. Carson KingP39 plays · +0.085 pts/play · 59th of 102 punters
   0.06WAR−0.01 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Fresno State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  50250278th of 129Roster talent: 502, 78th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15215276th of 129Recruiting: 152, 76th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%6th of 128Returning production: 86%, 6th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +3.3+3.358th of 129SP+ rating: +3.3, 58th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Fresno State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.17 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UNLVQ4 10:57 4th & 1 at UNLV 6, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−6.0 pts
2. vs SJSUQ4 10:23 4th & 2 at FRES 28, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
3. at UNLVQ4 2:56 4th & 1 at UNLV 11, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
4. vs SDSUQ4 4:53 4th & 10 at SDSU 10, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. at CONNQ3 0:39 4th & 3 at FRES 29, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. vs ORSTQ2 3:04 4th & 3 at ORST 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. at UNMQ2 7:26 4th & 1 at FRES 35, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. vs ORSTQ4 4:19 4th & 5 at ORST 34, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

55th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Fresno State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CP
2. L

   ORST
3. L

   USC
4. L

   CONN
5. L

   BOIS
6. W

   SJSU
7. W

   UNM
8. W

   SDSU
9. W

   HAW
10. W

    UNLV
11. W

    NEV
12. W

    WYO
13. W

    BOIS
14. W

    WSU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Fresno State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.69
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.90

Game by game

• CPW 35-7 vs CP99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• ORSTL 32-35 vs ORST56% → 5%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• USCL 17-45 at USC29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts +1
• CONNL 14-19 at CONN95% → 4%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −90: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −3
• BOISL 20-40 at BOIS25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −1
• SJSUW 17-10 vs SJSU35% → 90%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +32, Clock +1
• UNMW 41-9 at UNM80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +26, Clock +1
• SDSUW 32-28 vs SDSU81% → 77%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −5: Scoreboard +11, Possession & field position +1
• HAWW 55-13 vs HAW97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• UNLVW 37-30 at UNLV76% → 75%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −1: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position −4
• NEVW 41-14 at NEV95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• WYOW 30-0 vs WYO87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +16
• BOISW 28-16 at BOIS43% → 98%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• WSUW 29-6 vs WSU73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30

Points of win probability, from Fresno State's side.

Closest call

FRES 39-35 PUR (2023) - Fresno State dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.