Fresno State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0319th
  Defense0.0085th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.6%19th
  Defense38.9%77th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2452nd
  Defense+1.1589th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0219th
  Defense+0.0364th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1648th
  Defense+0.0291st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.8%12th
  Defense44.7%72nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.0%48th
  Defense27.2%76th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7925th
  Defense3.0033rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.9%34th
  Defense20.3%64th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.3%53rd
  Defense17.4%78th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Fresno State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   KU
2. W
   GASO
3. W
   ORST
4. W
   SOU
5. W
   HAW
6. W
   NEV
7. L
   CSU
8. L
   SDSU
9. W
   BOIS
10. W
    WYO
11. L
    USU
12. W
    SJSU
13. W
    M-OH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Fresno State.

Players, 2025

1. E.J. WarnerQB262 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 90th of 231 QBs
   0.88WAR0.38 to 1.38
2. Carson ConklinQB85 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 155th of 231 QBs
   0.29WAR0.14 to 0.42
3. Rayshon LukeRB120 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 79th of 365 RBs
   0.24WAR0.16 to 0.33
4. Josiah FreemanWR79 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 52nd of 451 WRs
   0.22WAR0.04 to 0.39
5. Bryson DonelsonRB142 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 110th of 365 RBs
   0.20WAR0.12 to 0.27
6. Nick VerdugoP47 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 11th of 100 punters
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.16
7. Dylan LynchPK22 plays · +0.230 pts/play · 43rd of 112 kickers
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15
8. Brandon RamirezRB52 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 237th of 365 RBs
   0.09WAR0.07 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Fresno State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58758790th of 134Roster talent: 587, 90th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15715779th of 134Recruiting: 157, 79th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  17%17%105th of 132Returning production: 17%, 105th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.8+1.865th of 134SP+ rating: +1.8, 65th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Fresno State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.22 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs USUQ4 9:09 4th & 2 at FRES 30, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
2. vs M-OHQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at M-OH 7, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at SJSUQ3 8:20 4th & 1 at SJSU 23, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
4. vs USUQ2 4:15 4th & 2 at USU 42, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
5. vs GASOQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at GASO 8, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
6. vs USUQ2 6:18 4th & 2 at USU 12, down 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. at CSUQ4 11:34 4th & 16 at CSU 39, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs USUQ2 13:26 4th & 2 at FRES 49, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

13th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Fresno State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   KU
2. W

   GASO
3. W

   ORST
4. W

   SOU
5. W

   HAW
6. W

   NEV
7. L

   CSU
8. L

   SDSU
9. W

   BOIS
10. W

    WYO
11. L

    USU
12. W

    SJSU
13. W

    M-OH

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Fresno State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.40
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.11
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.06

Game by game

• KUL 7-31 at KU15% → 1%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts +7
• GASOW 42-14 vs GASO48% → 100%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +50, Timeouts −2
• ORSTW 36-27 at ORST41% → 45%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +3: Timeouts +6, Possession & field position +3
• SOUW 56-7 vs SOU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• HAWW 23-21 at HAW55% → 89%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +46, Clock +3
• NEVW 20-17 vs NEV80% → 96%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• CSUL 21-49 at CSU61% → 0%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −55, Timeouts +1
• SDSUL 0-23 vs SDSU42% → 0%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −45, Clock −2
• BOISW 30-7 at BOIS10% → 100%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +90: Scoreboard +67, Clock +3
• WYOW 24-3 vs WYO51% → 100%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +47, Clock −2
• USUL 17-28 vs USU54% → 12%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −46, Possession & field position −1
• SJSUW 41-14 at SJSU57% → 100%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts −1
• M-OHW 18-3 vs M-OH65% → 99%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Fresno State's side.

Closest call

FRES 39-35 PUR (2023) - Fresno State dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.