NEV
Nevada 17 at Fresno State 20
FRES2025 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
FRES · Drive 1INT · 4 plays · 15 yds
Q1 15:00
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
76.8%
0.0
Q1 15:00
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 12 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST down
78.5%
+1.7
Q1 15:00
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 40
78.9%
+0.4
Q1 13:46
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Murvin Kenion III return for 1 yd to the FRES 45
78.9%
0.0
NEV · Drive 2INT · 4 plays · 10 yds
Q1 13:46
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the FRES 40
74.0%
-4.9
Q1 13:46
Ky Woods run for 4 yds to the FRES 36
73.9%
-0.1
Q1 13:46
Dominic Kelley run for 1 yd to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down
73.9%
0.0
Q1 11:52
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for no gain to the FRES 2
73.9%
0.0
FRES · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q1 11:52
E.J. Warner run for 3 yds to the FRES 5
78.3%
+4.4
Q1 11:52
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 6
78.3%
0.0
Q1 11:52
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 4 yds to the FRES 10
78.3%
0.0
Q1 9:37
Nick Verdugo punt for 23 yds
78.1%
-0.2
NEV · Drive 4MISSED FG · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 9:37
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 35
73.9%
-4.2
Q1 9:37
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 37
73.9%
0.0
Q1 9:37
Chubba Purdy run for 10 yds to the FRES 27
73.9%
0.0
Q1 7:41
Timeout Nevada, clock 07:41
73.1%
-0.8
Q1 7:35
Joe McFadden 49 yd FG MISSED
73.1%
0.0
FRES · Drive 5PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q1 7:35
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 32
76.5%
+3.4
Q1 7:35
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 35
76.5%
0.0
Q1 7:35
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 30
76.5%
0.0
Q1 5:37
Nick Verdugo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 36
75.0%
-1.5
NEV · Drive 6FG · 8 plays · 42 yds
Q1 5:37
Ky Woods run for 17 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down
73.0%
-1.9
Q1 5:37
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Dakota Thomas
71.2%
-1.9
Q1 5:37
AJ Bianco run for no gain to the FRES 47
71.2%
0.0
Q1 5:37
Caleb Ramseur run for 27 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST down
71.2%
0.0
Q1 5:37
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to AJ Bianco
71.1%
-0.1
Q1 5:37
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the FRES 18
71.1%
0.0
Q1 5:37
AJ Bianco pass complete to Herschel Turner for 4 yds to the FRES 22
71.1%
0.0
Q1 1:59
Joe McFadden 39 yd FG GOOD
67.3%
-3.7
FRES · Drive 7DOWNS · 6 plays · 48 yds
Q1 1:59
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
68.5%
+1.2
Q1 1:59
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 41 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST down
70.9%
+2.4
Q1 1:59
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the NEV 30
73.0%
+2.1
Q1 1:59
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the NEV 27
73.0%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the NEV 27
72.5%
-0.6
Q2 14:54
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for no gain to the NEV 27
72.1%
-0.3
NEV · Drive 8FUMBLE · 1 play · 4 yds
Q2 14:47
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the NEV 31 Herschel Turner fumbled, recovered by FRES Martin Owusu
66.6%
-5.6
FRES · Drive 9FG · 9 plays · 28 yds
Q2 14:47
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 5 yds to the NEV 26
72.7%
+6.1
Q2 14:47
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the NEV 23
72.7%
0.0
Q2 14:47
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST down
72.5%
-0.2
Q2 14:47
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the NEV 9
72.7%
+0.2
Q2 14:47
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the NEV 1 for a 1ST down
72.7%
0.0
Q2 14:47
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 2
72.7%
0.0
Q2 14:47
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
72.7%
0.0
Q2 14:47
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 3
72.5%
-0.2
Q2 9:46
Dylan Lynch 21 yd FG GOOD
75.9%
+3.4
NEV · Drive 10INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 9:46
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.7%
-1.2
Q2 9:40
Carter Jones pass intercepted K'Vion Thunderbird return for no gain to the NEV 29
72.4%
-2.3
FRES · Drive 11TD · 3 plays · 29 yds
Q2 9:40
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive Holding (Nathaneal Floyd) to the NEV 14 for a 1ST down
76.4%
+4.0
Q2 9:40
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the NEV 12
76.4%
0.0
Q2 8:25
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
86.2%
+9.8
NEV · Drive 12PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 8:25
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.6%
-0.6
Q2 8:25
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29
83.5%
-2.1
Q2 8:25
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the NEV 32
83.5%
0.0
Q2 8:25
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the NEV 34
83.5%
0.0
Q2 6:22
Joe McFadden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 20
83.8%
+0.3
Q2 6:22
Bailey Ettridge punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 10
83.8%
0.0
FRES · Drive 13FG · 7 plays · 71 yds
Q2 6:22
Timeout Fresno State, clock 06:22
86.0%
+2.3
Q2 6:22
Rayshon Luke run for 68 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST down
85.4%
-0.6
Q2 6:22
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the NEV 21
86.0%
+0.6
Q2 6:22
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 3 yds to the NEV 24
86.0%
0.0
Q2 6:22
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 10 yds to the NEV 14
85.9%
-0.1
Q2 3:23
(03:30) Shotgun Ramirez,Brandon rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NEV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:23 PENALTY FST False Start 5 yards from NEV14 to NEV19. NO PLAY.
85.7%
-0.2
Q2 3:19
Dylan Lynch 38 yd FG GOOD
90.5%
+4.8
NEV · Drive 14INT · 9 plays · 37 yds
Q2 3:19
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
90.5%
0.0
Q2 3:19
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29
88.4%
-2.1
Q2 3:19
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Nakian Jackson
88.4%
0.0
Q2 3:19
Carter Jones pass complete to Nakian Jackson for 14 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down
88.4%
0.0
Q2 3:19
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 45
88.4%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Fresno State, clock 02:00
88.2%
-0.2
Q2 2:00
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
88.2%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Carter Jones pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 12 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down
88.0%
-0.3
Q2 1:33
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Simeon Harris return for 4 yds to the FRES 34
87.7%
-0.3
FRES · Drive 15TD · 7 plays · 66 yds
Q2 1:33
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 5 yds to the FRES 39
89.9%
+2.2
Q2 1:33
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 6 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST down
89.9%
0.0
Q2 1:33
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 20 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST down
89.9%
0.0
Q2 1:33
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'ulu
90.1%
+0.1
Q2 1:33
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 11 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down
90.1%
0.0
Q2 0:38
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:38
90.8%
+0.7
Q2 0:32
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 24 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
96.2%
+5.4
NEV · Drive 16END OF HALF · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:32
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.2%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 25
95.2%
-1.1
NEV · Drive 17PUNT · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q3 14:54
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Ky Woods return for 17 yds to the NEV 17
96.3%
+1.2
Q3 14:54
Ky Woods run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 13
95.4%
-0.9
Q3 14:54
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the NEV 19
95.5%
+0.1
Q3 14:54
(13:30) Shotgun Jones,Carter pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Dakota thrown to NEV45 PENALTY FST Pass Interference (Hamilton,Al'zillion) 15 yards from NEV19 to NEV34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
95.4%
-0.1
Q3 14:54
Carter Jones run for 6 yds to the NEV 40
95.4%
0.0
Q3 14:54
Dominic Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 39
95.4%
0.0
Q3 14:54
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nakian Jackson
95.4%
0.0
Q3 11:58
Joe McFadden punt for 36 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 32
95.4%
0.0
FRES · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q3 11:58
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 33
96.8%
+1.4
Q3 11:58
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 4 yds to the FRES 37
96.8%
0.0
Q3 11:58
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson Donelson
96.8%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 25
97.0%
+0.2
NEV · Drive 19PUNT · 8 plays · 17 yds
Q3 10:39
Timeout Fresno State, clock 10:39
95.4%
-1.6
Q3 10:39
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 2 yds to the NEV 27
95.4%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 34
95.4%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down
95.4%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal Floyd
95.4%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 42
95.4%
0.0
Q3 10:39
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal Floyd
95.4%
0.0
Q3 7:44
Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15
95.4%
0.0
FRES · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q3 7:44
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 13
97.1%
+1.7
Q3 7:44
E.J. Warner sacked by Jonathan Maldonado for a loss of 9 yards to the FRES 4
97.1%
0.0
Q3 7:44
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the FRES 9
97.1%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Nick Verdugo punt for 37 yds
97.1%
0.0
NEV · Drive 21TD · 11 plays · 46 yds
Q3 5:35
Dominic Kelley run for 3 yds to the FRES 43
96.1%
-1.0
Q3 5:35
Carter Jones pass complete to Jace Henry for 2 yds to the FRES 41
96.1%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Carter Jones pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 1 yd to the FRES 40
96.1%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 5 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the FRES 33
95.9%
-0.2
Q3 5:35
Caleb Ramseur run for 8 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the FRES 22
95.9%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Carter Jones pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 6 yds to the FRES 16
95.9%
0.0
Q3 1:28
Timeout Nevada, clock 01:28
96.7%
+0.8
Q3 1:28
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the FRES 15 for a 1ST down
96.7%
0.0
Q3 0:43
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
88.2%
-8.5
FRES · Drive 22PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q3 0:43
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
89.1%
+1.0
Q3 0:00
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 23
93.0%
+3.9
Q4 15:00
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Rayshon Luke
93.0%
0.0
Q4 15:00
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson III
93.0%
0.0
Q4 14:44
Nick Verdugo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 35
92.9%
-0.1
NEV · Drive 23TD · 4 plays · 65 yds
Q4 14:44
Carter Jones pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 45 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST down
90.1%
-2.7
Q4 14:44
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the FRES 19
89.5%
-0.6
Q4 14:44
Carter Jones run for 2 yds to the FRES 17
89.5%
0.0
Q4 12:36
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
73.0%
-16.5
FRES · Drive 24PUNT · 6 plays · -11 yds
Q4 12:36
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
75.3%
+2.4
Q4 12:36
E.J. Warner pass incomplete
78.7%
+3.4
Q4 12:36
(12:29) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Malauulu,Jordan thrown to FST43 PENALTY FST Holding (Fullwood,Rolan) 10 yards from FST25 to FST15. NO PLAY.
78.7%
0.0
Q4 12:36
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 5 yds to the FRES 20
78.7%
0.0
Q4 12:36
E.J. Warner sacked by Jonathan Maldonado for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 14
78.7%
0.0
Q4 10:48
Nick Verdugo punt for 49 yds
78.3%
-0.5
NEV · Drive 25PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 10:48
Timeout Fresno State, clock 10:48
74.0%
-4.3
Q4 10:48
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 44
75.3%
+1.3
Q4 10:48
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 2 yds to the NEV 46
74.0%
-1.3
Q4 10:48
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40
73.8%
-0.2
Q4 8:42
Bailey Ettridge punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 16
76.5%
+2.8
FRES · Drive 26END OF GAME · 20 plays · 68 yds
Q4 8:42
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 17
77.3%
+0.8
Q4 8:42
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 18
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:42
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST down
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:42
Shotgun Luke,Rayshon rush middle for 0 yards to the FST31 (Floyd,Nathaneal) PENALTY FST Holding 10 yards from FST31 to FST21. NO PLAY.
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:42
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 14 yds to the FRES 35
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:42
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 7 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST down
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:42
(05:31) PENALTY FST False Start 5 yards from FST42 to FST37. NO PLAY.
77.8%
+0.4
Q4 8:42
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 41
77.7%
-0.1
Q4 8:42
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson Donelson
77.8%
+0.1
Q4 8:42
E.J. Warner run for 11 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST down
77.6%
-0.2
Q4 3:39
Timeout Nevada, clock 03:39
81.6%
+4.0
Q4 3:39
Brandon Ramirez run for 6 yds to the NEV 42
81.6%
0.0
Q4 3:35
Timeout Fresno State, clock 03:35
82.0%
+0.4
Q4 3:35
Brandon Ramirez run for 10 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST down
82.0%
0.0
Q4 3:35
Brandon Ramirez run for 5 yds to the NEV 27
82.0%
0.0
Q4 3:35
Brandon Ramirez run for 18 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST down
82.0%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Fresno State, clock 02:00
83.5%
+1.5
Q4 2:00
E. Warner takes a knee
83.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
E. Warner takes a knee
83.5%
0.0
Q4 0:00
E. Warner takes a knee
90.0%
+6.6
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:36
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q2 8:25
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q3 0:43
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-8.5