2025 · Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreFRES score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:05 · Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsScore differentialDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:25: Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +3.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q1 2:16: Leshon Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — FRES win probability +1.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 7:31: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 13 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — KU win probability +16.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:59: Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the FRES 34 — FRES win probability +10.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:51: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Keaton Kubecka for 12 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — KU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 2:16KU 4th & 1 at FRES 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.5%71% to convertField goal79.1%−0.477% to makePunt77.9%−1.6average punt
- Q2 14:05FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 11:09KU 4th & 18 at KU 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it79.6%−1.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q2 9:30FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q2 1:00KU 4th & 2 at FRES 29, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call91.1%−0.358% to makePunt87.8%−3.5average punt
- Q2 0:12FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 48, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:31KU 4th & 2 at FRES 27, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%57% to convertField goal97.8%−0.362% to makePunt96.6%−1.5average punt
- Q4 14:56KU 4th & 1 at FRES 15, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%71% to convertField goal98.1%−0.383% to makePunt97.0%−1.4average punt
- Q4 13:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 25, down 24Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:38KU 4th & 6 at KU 35, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 5:52FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 17, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 3:29KU 4th & 1 at KU 39, up 24Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:55FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 15, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:06KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:25FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.1%97% to makeGo for two19.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:16KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two81.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:31KU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1TD10 plays · 86 yds · 3:4885% → 81%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
84.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 13 yds to the KU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
83.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 5 yds to the KU 47Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 21 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4119% → 24%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+39
81.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 39 yds to the KU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
78.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Brandon Ramirez for 13 yds to the KU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0476% → 70%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
76.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 29 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Martin Owusu) to the KU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
75.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 15 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
75.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 38 Fresno State Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+10
73.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 10 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+15
73.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jakari Embry) to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+10
73.3%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 21 Fresno State Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0627% → 30%
Q1 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
71.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 17 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4765% → 58%
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+15
63.6%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Levi Wentz for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Al'zillion Hamilton) to the KU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+1
62.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 1 yd to the KU 36Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-7
60.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 7 yards to the KU 29Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+1
58.3%
Finn Lappin punt for 50 yds , Jordan Malauulu returns for 1 yd to the FRES 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2635% → 35%
Q2 9:36
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
64.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman, broken up by Jahlil HurleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7TD5 plays · 59 yds · 1:5259% → 76%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
58.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Leshon Williams for 16 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
57.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 13 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+10
59.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 10 yds to the FRES 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
76.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 13 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4524% → 18%
Q2 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
75.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 21 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9FG8 plays · -2 yds · 3:3185% → 73%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
84.7%
rush left , fumble by TEAM recovered by KAN Emilien,Doug, Emilien,Doug rush for 2 yards to the KAN35 (Thunderbird,K'Vion). fumbled, recovered by KU Doug Emilien Doug Emilien run for 2 yds to the KU 35Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
84.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 8 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+15
84.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Levi Wentz for 15 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
72.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 5 yds to the FRES 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 38 yds · 0:5413% → 15%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson Iii for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.4%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson Iii, broken up by Trey LathanSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
87.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 13 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 8 yds to the FRES 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11Uncategorized12 plays · 42 yds · 4:357% → 8%
Q3 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
92.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 3 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
93.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Brandon Ramirez for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+18
93.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 18 yds to the KU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
91.1%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kamron Beachem, broken up by Lyrik RawlsSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-18
92.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Bangally Kamara for a loss of 18 yards to the FRES 49 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by KU Kenean Caldwell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5693% → 96%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
94.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Carson Bruhn for 3 yds to the FRES 25 Fresno State Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FRES 35Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
95.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Keaton Kubecka for 12 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:226% → 5%
Q3 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
94.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 10 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14DOWNS11 plays · 33 yds · 6:0796% → 99%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
96.3%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 35 Fresno State Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FRES 45Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+9
97.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 9 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+3
98.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 3 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-1
98.5%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 16 Kansas Penalty, Defensive holding (Amir Herring) to the FRES 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:513% → 2%
Q4 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
97.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Malauulu for 7 yds to the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1699% → 99%
FRESDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 4:361% → 0%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
98.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 9Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+11
99.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson Iii for 11 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
99.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 6 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Johnathan Arceneaux, broken up by Devin DyeSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-12
99.5%
E.J. Warner sacked by Leroy Harris III for a loss of 12 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 19
OWN 17
0
99.6%
Nick Verdugo punt for 43 yds , Tate Nagy returns for no gain to the KU 17 Fresno State Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the KU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:29
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Finn Lappin punt for 50 yds , Jordan Malauulu returns for no gain to the FRES 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 3 yds · 1:220% → 1%
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 15
-1
98.7%
E.J. Warner sacked by Logan Brantley and Devin Dye for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20Uncategorized4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:31
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 13 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
+16.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:59
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the FRES 34
-10.9
TD · Q1 7:25
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-3