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FRES

Fresno State 36 at Oregon State 27

ORST
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:23 · Nick Verdugo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+14.0+7.00−7.0−14.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Timeout advantage+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:43: Rayshon Luke run for 44 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +5.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:44: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jake Reichle for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ORST win probability +21.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:30: — FRES win probability +6.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 9:06: Dylan Lynch 28 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +3.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ORST win probability +4.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:24ORST 4th & 15 at FRES 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24ORST 4th & 15 at FRES 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:23ORST 4th & 7 at FRES 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:23ORST 4th & 7 at FRES 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:01ORST 4th & 6 at FRES 36, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:18ORST 4th & 14 at ORST 37, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 5.0 ptsWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%−5.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:06FRES 4th & 9 at ORST 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−4.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−16.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:57FRES 4th & 6 at ORST 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−14.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:18ORST 4th & 20 at FRES 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−10.9
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−24.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 0 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:24FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:24ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:27ORST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:43FRES Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:44ORST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2041% → 43%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
58.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
58.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+20
58.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 20 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
58.4%
Rayshon Luke run for 12 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.3%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
57.4%
E.J. Warner run for 30 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0057% → 59%
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
57.4%
E.J. Warner run for 30 yds to the ORST 0, for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
57.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
57.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 21 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
57.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
57.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
57.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
57.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
57.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
56.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
57.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 21 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
16 plays · 21 yds · 8:5159% → 57%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.5%
Maalik Murphy pass to Bryce Caufield for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
58.4%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 21 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
58.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
58.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
59.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
59.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
58.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
59.2%
Maalik Murphy pass to Trent Walker for 21 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.2%
Maalik Murphy pass to Eddie Freauff for 5 yds to the FRES 0, for a TD Two-Point Conversion failedSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
58.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 26 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
59.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 2 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-3
58.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
57.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
57.1%
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4542% → 41%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
58.3%
(07:16) Shotgun Warner,E.J. rush left for 5 yards gain to the FST28 (Foster,Dexter) PENALTY FST Holding (Polendo,Julian) 10 yards from FST23 to FST13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 20
OWN 13
-3
58.4%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 23
OWN 10
+12
58.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
58.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
59.1%
Nick Verdugo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 10:4958% → 63%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
58.3%
E.J. Warner run, Fresno State Penalty, holding (Julian Polendo)Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 20
OWN 13
-3
58.4%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 23
OWN 10
+12
58.5%
E.J. Warner pass to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
58.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
59.1%
Nick Verdugo punt for 42 yds to the FRES Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
58.8%
Trent Walker pass complete to Gabarri Johnson for 17 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
59.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+7
59.4%
Gabarri Johnson run for 7 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
60.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
60.1%
Salahadin Allah run for 16 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Caufield) to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
60.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
63.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Malachi Durant for 10 yds for a TD Fresno State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Korey Foreman) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 11:3060% → 54%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
60.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 26 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
61.1%
Maalik Murphy pass to David Wells Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-3
61.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
60.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
59.7%
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
61.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 11 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
61.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 40Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
61.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 14 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
59.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
53.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 44 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
22 plays · 60 yds · 15:0160% → 63%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
59.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the , Fresno State Penalty, holding (Ezekiel Avit)Similar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+18
59.6%
E.J. Warner pass to Richie Anderson III for 18 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
59.2%
E.J. Warner pass to Jayon Farrar for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+30
59.7%
E.J. Warner pass to Josiah Freeman for 30 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
58.1%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 46Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+3
58.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-31
59.3%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, Jalil Tucker return for 31 yds to the ORST 10Similar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
60.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 24 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
63.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
63.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+6
63.6%
Maalik Murphy run for 6 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
64.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+18
63.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 18 yds to the FRES 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the FRES 12Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
65.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 7 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-4
64.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 9Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
62.6%
Caleb Ojeda 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:3141% → 41%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
59.4%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the FRES 24 Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ezekiel Avit) to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+18
59.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 18 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
58.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 2 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+30
59.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 30 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
57.7%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+3
58.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-31
58.9%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jalil Tucker return for 31 yds to the ORST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
34 plays · 68 yds · 19:4261% → 68%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
60.6%
Maalik Murphy pass to Trent Walker for 24 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
63.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
63.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+6
63.3%
Maalik Murphy run for 6 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
64.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+18
63.5%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 18 yds to the FRES 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.7%
Anthony Hankerson runSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
64.9%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 7 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-4
64.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 9Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
62.6%
Caleb Ojeda 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 13 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
46.5%
(14:20) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU42 (Xepera,Merhauti; Pearson,Jadon) PENALTY OSU Holding (Berger,Ryan) 10 yards from OSU38 to OSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+15
44.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Riley Williams for 15 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
47.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the ORST 43Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
45.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
47.0%
Salahadin Allah run for 6 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
47.6%
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
46.9%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Berger,Ryan) 5 yards from FST42 to FST47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
46.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 7 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eddie FreauffSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
46.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
46.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+7
43.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 7 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
48.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
47.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Salahadin Allah for 9 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
47.8%
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
47.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Salahadin Allah for 3 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
45.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 10 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
47.4%
(05:13) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush right for 8 yards gain to the FST01 (Thomas,Tim; Harris,Simeon) PENALTY OSU Holding (Wells,Van) 10 yards from FST09 to FST19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+3
46.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jake Reichle for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · -4 yds · 21:4360% → 60%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
60.3%
E.J. Warner pass to Richie Anderson III for 2 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
61.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+5
62.4%
Nick Verdugo punt for 44 yds to the ORST 37, Trent Walker returns for 5 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
62.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 16 yds to the ORST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-11
65.5%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Jayden Davis for a loss of 11 yards to the ORST 30Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 21
OWN 30
-5
61.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Anderson,Jacob) 5 yards from OSU30 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 26
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 26
OWN 25
+12
59.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 12 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 14
OWN 37
-16
59.5%
run for a loss of 16 yards to the ORST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
13 plays · 11 yds · 22:3638% → 42%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
62.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 38Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
62.5%
Maalik Murphy pass to Bryce Caufield for 2 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
61.5%
Maalik Murphy pass to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
61.7%
Oregon State Penalty, falsestart (Riley Williams)Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+5
60.6%
Oregon State Penalty, falsestart (Jake Reichle)Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+42
59.9%
AJ Winsor punt for 6 yds to the , Jaden Carrillo returns for 42 yds to the ORST 42 for a TDSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
52.6%
Ezekiel Avit run for 10 yds to the ORST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
52.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the ORST 7Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-3
51.9%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORST 10Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
54.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jayon FarrarSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
58.2%
Dylan Lynch 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 8 yds · 28:2562% → 66%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
62.0%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 9 yds to the ORST 42Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+13
63.8%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 13 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
64.4%
Maalik Murphy pass to Eddie Freauff for 21 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
65.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
65.6%
Oregon State Penalty, falsestart (Jacob Anderson)Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+5
64.3%
Oregon State Penalty, falsestart (Van Wells)Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
64.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 20
OPP 34
-16
62.3%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted, Simeon Harris return for 16 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
59.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
59.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
59.6%
Brandon Ramirez run for no gain to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
65.7%
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 28:4260% → 81%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
60.1%
E.J. Warner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
71.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 5 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
71.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
68.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 10 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+19
76.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 19 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
80.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:4042% → 43%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
58.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 6 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
56.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
50
+20
54.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 20 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
52.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 10 yds to the ORST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
51.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the ORST 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-1
51.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 17Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
53.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 6 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-5
56.8%
(14:12) PENALTY FST Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU11 to OSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
57.4%
Dylan Lynch 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:3457% → 55%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
56.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 13Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+37
56.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 37 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+15
63.0%
(07:41) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete deep right to Card,Zack thrown to FST05 PENALTY FST Pass Interference (Briggs,Jomarion) 15 yards from OSU50 to FST35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
64.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zachary Card for 6 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+14
62.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 14 yds to the FRES 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the FRES 12Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
64.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Bryce CaufieldSimilar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-10
62.5%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Jahzon Jacks for a loss of 10 yards to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+40
55.4%
Caleb Ojeda 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-55.4
TD · Q3 3:44
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jake Reichle for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+21.2
TD · Q3 2:30
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com