Try the model
SOU

Southern 7 at Fresno State 56

FRES
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · C. Conklin takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:58: E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Trey Holly run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Zimmer KICK) — SOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:27: Bryson Donelson run for 57 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:33: E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:00SOU 4th & 17 at SOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:15SOU 4th & 13 at SOU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:53FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53SOU 4th & 8 at SOU 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:34SOU 4th & 12 at FRES 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:14SOU 4th & 15 at SOU 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:53SOU 4th & 3 at SOU 10, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:39SOU 4th & 16 at SOU 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:39SOU 4th & 10 at SOU 11, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:48SOU 4th & 3 at SOU 32, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:53FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:54FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:58FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:41SOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:27FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:33FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:06FRES Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:37FRES Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:58FRES Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5398% → 98%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 12 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
98.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 10 yds to the SOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 9 yds to the SOU 32Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+7
98.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the SOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Harold Duvall for 25 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 2:532% → 2%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.1%
PENALTY SOU False Start (Trask Jr,Joshua) 5 yards from SOU25 to SOU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
98.1%
Cam'Ron McCoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the SOU 18Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+15
98.0%
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (Al'zillion Hamilton) to the SOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.0%
Trey Holly run for 1 yd to the SOU 39Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
97.9%
PENALTY SOU False Start (Trask Jr,Joshua) 5 yards from SOU39 to SOU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+4
97.9%
Cam'Ron McCoy pass complete to Kobe Brown for 4 yds to the SOU 38Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Southern Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Kenny Pham punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:5698% → 98%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 46Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
97.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 11 yds to the SOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
97.8%
(07:03) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Avit,Ezekiel thrown to SOU20 PENALTY SOU Holding (Carter,Landon) 10 yards from SOU30 to SOU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
97.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 9 yds to the SOU 11Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
97.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for no gain to the SOU 11Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
97.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the SOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
97.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the SOU 8Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 2 yds to the SOU 6Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
97.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 9 yds to the SOU 34Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
97.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the SOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:392% → 3%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Trey Holly run for 1 yd to the SOU 26Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
97.6%
Cam'Ron McCoy run for a loss of 4 yards to the SOU 22Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Cam'Ron McCoy pass incomplete to Kobe BrownSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Kenny Pham punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2298% → 97%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
97.5%
Shotgun Donelson,Bryson rush left for 8 yards gain to the FST41 (West,Elijah) PENALTY FST Holding 10 yards from FST33 to FST23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+15
97.5%
Southern Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Vincent Paige Jr.) to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the SOU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-10
97.5%
Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short right to Avit,Ezekiel caught at SOU37, for 14 yards to the SOU32 (Franks,Zay) PENALTY FST Holding (Anderson III,Richie) 10 yards from SOU46 to FST44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
97.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+5
97.4%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Nick Verdugo punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:003% → 3%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.2%
Cam'Ron McCoy pass incomplete to Khalil HarrisSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
97.2%
Cam'Ron McCoy run for 2 yds to the SOU 3Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
97.3%
Cam'Ron McCoy pass incomplete to Khalil HarrisSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
97.2%
Kenny Pham punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:5597% → 99%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the SOU 37Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
97.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the SOU 33Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+14
97.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 14 yds to the SOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:172% → 4%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Jason Gabriel run for 1 yd to the SOU 26Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+28
98.3%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Malachi Jackson for 28 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.1%
PENALTY SOU False Start 5 yards from FST46 to SOU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+9
98.2%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Cam Jefferson for 9 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+18
98.1%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Kobe Brown for 18 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.0%
Jason Gabriel run for 4 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
98.0%
Trey Holly run for 5 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-5
97.9%
Shotgun Holly,Trey rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FST10 (Pearson,Jadon) PENALTY SOU Illegal Formation 5 yards from FST15 to FST20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+19
98.0%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Darren Morris for 19 yds to the FRES 1 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, personal foul (Yards) to the FRES 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.8%
Trey Holly run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Trey Holly run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Zimmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
98.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 57 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:532% → 2%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Jason Gabriel run for 3 yds to the SOU 28Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
98.1%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Cam Jefferson for 5 yds to the SOU 33Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+27
98.1%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Malachi Jackson for 27 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
97.9%
Jason Gabriel run for 1 yd to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Ashton Strother pass incomplete to Darren MorrisSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+14
98.1%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Trey Holly for 14 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.8%
Trey Holly run for 3 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
97.8%
Ashton Strother pass incomplete to Darren MorrisSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-5
97.9%
Ashton Strother run for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 27 Ashton Strother fumbled, recovered by SOU Ashton StrotherSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
98.1%
Nathan Zimmer 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Merhauti XeperaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:0199% → 100%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 28 yds to the SOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 5 yds to the SOU 40Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+20
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 20 yds to the SOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jayon FarrarSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 13 yds to the SOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
98.6%
E.J. Warner sacked by Ckelby Givens for a loss of 15 yards to the SOU 22 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by FRES Jayon Farrar , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
99.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
A. Strother takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:272% → 0%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.9%
Trey Holly run for no gain to the SOU 15Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-7
99.6%
(14:09) Shotgun Strother,Ashton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SOU20, out of bounds at SOU20 PENALTY SOU Holding 7 yards from SOU15 to SOU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+7
99.7%
Ashton Strother pass complete to Kobe Brown for 7 yds to the SOU 15Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-5
99.7%
Ashton Strother sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the SOU 10Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
99.7%
Kenny Pham punt for 32 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for no gain to the SOU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 9 yds to the SOU 33Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the SOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the SOU 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 7 yds to the SOU 23Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Brandon Ramirez run for 4 yds to the SOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
99.8%
Southern Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (De'Myrion Johnson) to the SOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.8%
Fresno State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the SOU 13Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+10
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 10 yds Ezekiel Avit fumbled, recovered by SOU Lance JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
99.8%
Jason Gabriel run for 6 yds to the SOU 9Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+1
99.8%
Jason Gabriel run for 1 yd to the SOU 10Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Ashton Strother pass incomplete to Khalil HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Kenny Pham punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the SOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.8%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SOU 45Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
99.8%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 9 yds to the SOU 36Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 6 yds to the SOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Jordan Brown for 2 yds to the SOU 28Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
99.9%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 7 yds to the SOU 21Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for 2 yds to the SOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.9%
Jason Gabriel run for a loss of 3 yards to the SOU 37Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
Jason Gabriel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SOU 35Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
Ashton Strother sacked by Korey Foreman for a loss of 1 yard to the SOU 34Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Kenny Pham punt for 35 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for no gain to the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 12 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Carson Conklin pass incomplete to Harold DuvallSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.9%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 11 yds to the SOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the SOU 34Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
99.9%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 13 yds to the SOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 9 yds to the SOU 10Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
PENALTY SOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Franks,Zay) 5 yards from SOU10 to SOU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the SOU 3Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Ashton Strother pass complete to David Prince for no gain to the SOU 11Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Ashton Strother pass incomplete to Jeremiah ValdrySimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Ashton Strother pass incomplete to Dupree FullerSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Kenny Pham punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the SOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.9%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 16
50
+6
99.9%
Carson Conklin run for 6 yds to the SOU 44Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 9 yds to the SOU 35Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+9
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the SOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the SOU 17Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the SOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the SOU 5Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Christian Smith run for 4 yds to the SOU 29Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Christian Smith run for 1 yd to the SOU 30Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
Jason Gabriel run for 2 yds to the SOU 32Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Southern Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ashton Strother) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Devon Rivers run for 6 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
Ryan Warkentin run for 5 yds to the SOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
100.0%
C. Conklin takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
100.0%
C. Conklin takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-1
100.0%
C. Conklin takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:27
Bryson Donelson run for 57 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 5:41
Trey Holly run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Zimmer KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 10:58
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com