FRES
Fresno State 23 at Hawai'i 21
HAW2025 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey play
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FRES · Drive 1MISSED FG · 14 plays · 56 yds
Q1 14:56
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds , Rayshon Luke return for 19 yds to the FRES 19
50.5%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the FRES 25
47.5%
-3.0
Q1 14:13
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the FRES 28
46.9%
-0.6
Q1 13:33
Brandon Ramirez run for 1 yd to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down
46.9%
0.0
Q1 12:55
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 17 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down
46.9%
0.0
Q1 12:34
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Ezekiel Avit
44.7%
-2.2
Q1 12:25
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 11 yds to the HAW 43 for a 1ST down
44.7%
0.0
Q1 11:51
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 45
44.3%
-0.4
Q1 11:06
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the HAW 40
44.4%
+0.1
Q1 10:32
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 8 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST down
44.3%
-0.1
Q1 9:56
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 27
44.3%
0.0
Q1 9:18
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the HAW 25
44.4%
+0.1
Q1 8:08
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the HAW 25 Bryson Donelson fumbled, recovered by FRES Bryson Donelson
44.3%
-0.1
Q1 7:59
Dylan Lynch 43 yd FG MISSED
45.1%
+0.8
HAW · Drive 2PUNT · 7 plays · 11 yds
Q1 7:50
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 27
50.8%
+5.8
Q1 7:22
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 8 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST down
50.8%
0.0
Q1 6:41
Micah Alejado pass complete to Devon Tauaefa for 4 yds to the HAW 39
50.8%
0.0
Q1 6:15
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon White
51.7%
+0.8
Q1 6:04
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the HAW 40
51.4%
-0.3
Q1 5:38
PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Substitution 4 yards from Hawaii40 to Hawaii36. NO PLAY.
51.4%
-0.1
Q1 5:20
Billy Gowers punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 40
51.0%
-0.4
FRES · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 5:12
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 45
46.0%
-4.9
Q1 4:40
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 4 yds to the FRES 49
45.2%
-0.8
Q1 3:56
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 47
44.9%
-0.3
Q1 3:26
Nick Verdugo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 7
45.3%
+0.3
HAW · Drive 4FUMBLE · 6 plays · 11 yds
Q1 3:20
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 10
51.0%
+5.8
Q1 2:45
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the HAW 17 for a 1ST down
51.0%
0.0
Q1 2:01
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 4 yds to the HAW 21
51.3%
+0.3
Q1 1:35
Landon Sims run for 8 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST down
51.3%
0.0
Q1 0:51
Micah Alejado sacked by Merhauti Xepera for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 24
51.3%
0.0
Q1 0:15
run for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 18 fumbled, recovered by FRES Jahzon Jacks
51.4%
+0.1
FRES · Drive 5MISSED FG · 7 plays · 10 yds
Q1 0:00
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 13
44.9%
-6.5
Q2 14:48
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 5 yds to the HAW 18
44.9%
0.0
Q2 14:04
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 11 yds to the HAW 7 for a 1ST down
44.9%
0.0
Q2 13:27
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 8
44.9%
0.0
Q2 12:48
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
44.9%
0.0
Q2 12:42
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
44.9%
0.0
Q2 12:38
Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG MISSED
45.7%
+0.8
HAW · Drive 6PUNT · 8 plays · 41 yds
Q2 12:24
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 27 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST down
51.4%
+5.8
Q2 12:04
Micah Alejado sacked by Deijon Laffitte for a loss of 5 yards to the HAW 42
52.6%
+1.1
Q2 11:19
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds to the FRES 49
52.3%
-0.2
Q2 10:41
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down
53.4%
+1.0
Q2 10:11
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the FRES 36
54.0%
+0.6
Q2 9:32
Micah Alejado sacked by Ryan Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 39
54.0%
0.0
Q2 8:49
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama Uiliata
53.8%
-0.3
Q2 8:38
Billy Gowers punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 3
53.4%
-0.4
FRES · Drive 7SF · 3 plays · -10 yds
Q2 8:31
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the FRES 4
48.1%
-5.2
Q2 7:20
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 7
46.1%
-2.0
Q2 7:20
E.J. Warner sacked by De'Jon Benton for a loss of 14 yards for a SAFETY E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by FRES Julian Polendo , return for 0 yards for a SAFETY
53.2%
+7.1
HAW · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q2 6:55
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 70 yds
53.2%
0.0
Q2 6:32
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Cam Barfield
58.9%
+5.7
Q2 6:29
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 31
58.9%
0.0
Q2 6:16
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
58.9%
0.0
Q2 6:16
Billy Gowers punt for 50 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 26
58.3%
-0.7
FRES · Drive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD · 11 plays · 11 yds
Q2 6:09
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 28
53.2%
-5.0
Q2 5:32
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 7 yds to the FRES 35
53.3%
+0.1
Q2 5:06
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down
54.0%
+0.6
Q2 4:25
(04:32) Shotgun Donelson,Bryson rush right for 35 yards gain to the Hawaii26 (Benton,De'jon) PENALTY FSU Holding (Polendo,Julian) 10 yards from FSU39 to FSU29. NO PLAY.
53.3%
-0.7
Q2 3:00
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 20 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down
54.2%
+0.9
Q2 2:38
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the HAW 46
52.4%
-1.8
Q2 2:38
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson III
52.1%
-0.3
Q2 2:33
(02:33) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short middle to Farrar,Jayon caught at Hawaii35, for 11 yards to the Hawaii35 (Manuma,Peter) PENALTY FSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Farrar,Jayon) 5 yards from Hawaii46 to FSU49. NO PLAY.
52.1%
0.0
Q2 2:00
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 10 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST down
52.3%
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 02:00
51.7%
-0.6
Q2 1:47
Jamih Otis 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)
66.5%
+14.8
FRES · Drive 10TD · 9 plays · 57 yds
Q2 1:34
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 60 yds , Rayshon Luke return for 38 yds to the FRES 43
71.0%
+4.5
Q2 1:27
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 13 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST down
67.8%
-3.2
Q2 1:01
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 01:01
70.1%
+2.3
Q2 0:58
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the HAW 39
70.6%
+0.5
Q2 0:56
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 15 yds to the HAW 24 for a 1ST down
70.1%
-0.5
Q2 0:53
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 4 yds to the HAW 20
69.5%
-0.6
Q2 0:44
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Malau'ulu for 7 yds to the HAW 13 for a 1ST down
69.5%
0.0
Q2 0:44
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:44
69.5%
0.0
Q2 0:38
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
52.3%
-17.2
HAW · Drive 11INT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q2 0:38
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
55.2%
+2.9
Q2 0:30
Micah Alejado pass complete to Landon Sims for 2 yds to the HAW 27
60.8%
+5.6
Q2 0:30
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:30
60.8%
0.0
Q2 0:23
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for no gain to the FRES 45
60.7%
0.0
FRES · Drive 12END OF HALF · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q2 0:16
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 7 yds to the FRES 38
53.4%
-7.4
Q2 0:16
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:16
54.2%
+0.8
Q2 0:00
Rayshon Luke run for 8 yds to the FRES 46
54.2%
0.0
HAW · Drive 13PUNT · 9 plays · 15 yds
Q3 15:00
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 57 yds
55.1%
+0.9
Q3 14:52
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 1 yd to the HAW 26
60.7%
+5.6
Q3 14:29
Cam Barfield run for 4 yds to the HAW 30
60.7%
0.0
Q3 13:36
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 6 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down
60.7%
0.0
Q3 13:21
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Milovale,James) 5 yards from Hawaii36 to Hawaii31. NO PLAY.
61.2%
+0.5
Q3 12:55
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 37
60.8%
-0.4
Q3 12:21
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the HAW 40
61.3%
+0.5
Q3 11:45
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
61.2%
-0.1
Q3 11:38
Billy Gowers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15
60.5%
-0.6
FRES · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q3 11:31
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 15
55.1%
-5.4
Q3 10:46
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 3 yds to the FRES 18
55.1%
0.0
Q3 10:09
(10:23) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete deep left to Avit,Ezekiel thrown to Hawaii48 PENALTY Hawaii Holding offsetting FSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.
55.1%
0.0
Q3 9:45
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'ulu
55.7%
+0.6
Q3 9:31
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 44
55.7%
0.0
HAW · Drive 15FG · 9 plays · 34 yds
Q3 8:55
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 4 yds to the HAW 48
62.2%
+6.5
Q3 8:46
Landon Sims run for 12 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST down
62.4%
+0.2
Q3 8:16
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 3 yds to the FRES 37
63.0%
+0.7
Q3 8:16
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Jackson Harris
63.0%
0.0
Q3 7:54
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST down
62.8%
-0.2
Q3 7:37
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon Sims
63.0%
+0.2
Q3 7:32
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 6 yds to the FRES 22
63.0%
0.0
Q3 7:31
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
62.8%
-0.2
Q3 7:31
Kansei Matsuzawa 40 yd FG GOOD
70.2%
+7.4
FRES · Drive 16TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q3 7:31
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
69.6%
-0.6
Q3 7:20
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 6 yds to the FRES 31
63.8%
-5.8
Q3 6:49
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 33
63.8%
0.0
Q3 5:47
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
41.3%
-22.5
HAW · Drive 17FG · 9 plays · 40 yds
Q3 5:47
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 57 yds
43.4%
+2.1
Q3 5:40
Cam Barfield run for 1 yd to the HAW 26
49.3%
+5.9
Q3 5:08
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 4 yds to the HAW 30
49.3%
0.0
Q3 4:35
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (Ethan Spencer) to the HAW 26
49.3%
0.0
Q3 4:09
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 38 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down
49.9%
+0.6
Q3 3:53
Landon Sims run for no gain to the FRES 36
52.8%
+2.9
Q3 3:23
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Landon Sims
52.8%
0.0
Q3 3:23
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the FRES 34
52.5%
-0.3
Q3 3:15
Kansei Matsuzawa 52 yd FG GOOD
62.6%
+10.1
FRES · Drive 18MISSED FG · 11 plays · 39 yds
Q3 3:15
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.9%
-0.7
Q3 3:01
E.J. Warner run for 28 yds to the HAW 47 for a 1ST down
56.2%
-5.7
Q3 2:25
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 49
53.9%
-2.3
Q3 1:34
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for no gain to the HAW 49
53.9%
0.0
Q3 0:48
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 15 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST down
53.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
(00:26) Shotgun Gilliam,Elijah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Hawaii33 (Mendiola-Jensen,Kilinahe) PENALTY FSU Holding (Penright,Toreon) 10 yards from Hawaii34 to Hawaii44. NO PLAY.
53.3%
-0.6
Q4 14:47
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the HAW 39
54.9%
+1.5
Q4 14:06
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the HAW 45
54.2%
-0.6
Q4 13:40
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 13:40
54.9%
+0.6
Q4 13:26
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 9 yds to the HAW 36
54.9%
0.0
Q4 12:46
Dylan Lynch 54 yd FG MISSED
55.0%
+0.2
HAW · Drive 19INT · 3 plays · 5 yds
Q4 12:36
Micah Alejado run for 5 yds to the HAW 41
65.1%
+10.1
Q4 12:01
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for no gain to the HAW 41
65.2%
+0.1
Q4 11:22
Micah Alejado pass intercepted Al'zillion Hamilton return for 42 yds to the HAW 12
65.0%
-0.2
FRES · Drive 20FG · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q4 11:16
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the HAW 12
54.2%
-10.8
Q4 10:37
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
54.2%
0.0
Q4 10:28
E.J. Warner run for 3 yds to the HAW 9
54.2%
0.0
Q4 9:54
Dylan Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD
42.9%
-11.3
HAW · Drive 21INT TD · 10 plays · 32 yds
Q4 9:54
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
44.2%
+1.3
Q4 9:47
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 9 yds to the HAW 34
51.5%
+7.3
Q4 9:23
Micah Alejado run for no gain to the HAW 34
51.4%
-0.1
Q4 8:48
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down
51.4%
0.0
Q4 8:08
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon White
51.9%
+0.5
Q4 8:01
Micah Alejado run for 6 yds to the HAW 44
51.9%
0.0
Q4 7:17
Cam Barfield run for 3 yds to the HAW 47
51.9%
0.0
Q4 6:35
Brandon White run for 9 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST down
51.9%
0.0
Q4 6:00
Micah Alejado run for 1 yd to the FRES 43
53.4%
+1.5
Q4 5:20
K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)
16.6%
-36.8
HAW · Drive 22DOWNS · 9 plays · 38 yds
Q4 5:20
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 64 yds
14.7%
-1.9
Q4 5:20
(05:19) PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Spencer,Ethan) 5 yards from Hawaii25 to Hawaii20. NO PLAY.
15.2%
+0.5
Q4 5:11
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 16 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jahzon Jacks) to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down
15.2%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 8 yds to the HAW 44
15.2%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (RL Miller) to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down
15.5%
+0.3
Q4 5:11
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Tama Uiliata
16.6%
+1.1
Q4 5:11
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the FRES 37
16.6%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Karsyn Pupunu
16.6%
0.0
Q4 3:27
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
14.1%
-2.5
FRES · Drive 23PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q4 3:27
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 36
12.7%
-1.4
Q4 3:22
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:22
12.4%
-0.3
Q4 3:22
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the FRES 38
12.4%
0.0
Q4 3:17
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 03:17
12.3%
-0.1
Q4 3:17
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
12.3%
0.0
Q4 3:06
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tama Uiliata at the HAW 23
12.1%
-0.2
HAW · Drive 24TD · 16 plays · 77 yds
Q4 3:06
Micah Alejado pass complete to Cam Barfield for 8 yds to the HAW 31
12.6%
+0.5
Q4 3:06
Micah Alejado run for 14 yds to the HAW 45 for a 1ST down
12.6%
0.0
Q4 3:06
No Huddle-Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete short middle to Harris,Jackson thrown to FSU42, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Hamilton,Al'zillion) 14 yards from Hawaii45 to FSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
12.8%
+0.2
Q4 3:06
Brandon White run for 5 yds to the FRES 36
14.1%
+1.3
Q4 3:06
Micah Alejado sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 39
14.1%
0.0
Q4 1:09
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Pofele Ashlock
11.2%
-2.9
Q4 1:02
Micah Alejado run for 10 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down
11.2%
0.0
Q4 0:56
(01:01) Shotgun Alejado,Micah pass incomplete deep right to Ashlock,Pofele thrown to FSU04 PENALTY Hawaii Illegal Motion 5 yards from FSU29 to FSU34. NO PLAY.
11.6%
+0.3
Q4 0:51
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Brandon White
11.2%
-0.3
Q4 0:44
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds to the FRES 24
11.2%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST down
11.7%
+0.5
Q4 0:27
Micah Alejado run for 8 yds to the FRES 10
11.7%
0.0
Q4 0:14
Micah Alejado pass incomplete to Blaze Kamoku
11.7%
0.0
Q4 0:14
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:14
11.7%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
27.1%
+15.3
Q4 0:10
Timeout Hawai'i, clock 00:10
11.7%
-15.3
FRES · Drive 25END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q4 0:09
Kansei Matsuzawa kickoff for 14 yds
23.2%
+11.5
Q4 0:00
E. Warner takes a knee
15.7%
-7.5
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:20
K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)
-36.8
TD · Q3 5:47
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-22.5
TD · Q2 0:38
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-17.2