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FRES

Fresno State 41 at San José State 14

SJSU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG—SJSU 44.3%(06:18) #46 D.Lynch field goal attemptfrom 34 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo,LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 06:16AWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 6:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:16 · (06:18) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 06:16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:52: (14:56) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 14:52 — FRES win probability +1.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:44: (11:46) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:44 #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown) — FRES win probability +2.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: (01:51) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU15, for 37 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN #5 J.Freeman rush attempt Successful — FRES win probability +10.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:45: Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:45 — SJSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 8:20: Timeout Fresno State, clock 08:20 — FRES win probability +3.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:39SJSU 4th & 16 at SJSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55FRES 4th & 4 at SJSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:16FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:28FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52FRES 4th & 5 at SJSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01SJSU 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:57FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−2.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:54SJSU 4th & 4 at FRES 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:14FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:20FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 23, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%−2.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:06SJSU 4th & 2 at FRES 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−0.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:58FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:50SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:07SJSU 4th & 7 at FRES 43, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07FRES 4th & 4 at SJSU 15, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:52FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 11:44FRES Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:50SJSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:45FRES Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:52FRES Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0943% → 44%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.1%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush right for 7 yards gain to the SJSU32 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
43.3%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU34 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
43.4%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU37, for 13 yards to the SJSU47 (#1 J.Embry), out of bounds PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference (#1 L.Smith) 15 yards from SJSU34 to SJSU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
43.5%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU19 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
43.6%
(12:49) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 35 yards to the FS46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3356% → 56%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
43.6%
(12:39) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FS50 (#91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
50
+4
43.6%
(12:06) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FS47, for 4 yards to the SJSU46 (#26 E.Powell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-2
43.8%
(11:35) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU47, for 2 yards loss to the SJSU48 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
44.1%
(11:00) #41 N.Verdugo punt 34 yards to the SJSU14 fair catch by #29 J.Thomas at SJSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4444% → 44%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
44.3%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#35 T.Khajavi; #99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
44.5%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete deep left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS40Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
44.2%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete short middle to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU25Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
44.1%
(10:08) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 16 yards to the SJSU35, out of bounds at SJSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:3856% → 56%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
43.8%
(10:03) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU33 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
43.9%
(09:30) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SJSU26 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams)Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
44.0%
(08:49) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU24 (#94 M.Hola), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
43.9%
(08:14) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 1 yard loss to the SJSU25 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
44.0%
(07:37) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at SJSU20, for 5 yards to the SJSU20 (#15 J.Bainer)Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
44.3%
(07:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU16 (#4 T.Latu)Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
44.3%
(06:18) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 06:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2745% → 46%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.7%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU30Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.4%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush left for 8 yards gain to the SJSU33 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
44.8%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU38 (#17 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
45.1%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete short right to #85 J.Canaan caught at SJSU41, for 3 yards to the SJSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
45.6%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete short left to #1 L.Smith thrown to SJSU50 broken up by #1 J.EmbrySimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-4
46.2%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at FS42 #5 S.Harris return 4 yards to the FS46 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FG
14 plays · 31 yds · 4:3955% → 58%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
44.7%
(04:37) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FS48 (#91 Q.Likio; #50 G.Faga)Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
44.7%
(03:56) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SJSU45 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
44.5%
(03:20) #13 E.Warner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#91 Q.Likio; #50 G.Faga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
44.4%
(02:45) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU41 (#50 G.Faga; #94 M.Hola)Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
44.0%
(02:09) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short middle to #2 R.Luke thrown to SJSU35Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
44.3%
(02:04) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #84 E.Avit caught at SJSU41, for 5 yards to the SJSU36 (#29 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+8
44.9%
(01:34) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at SJSU37, for 8 yards to the SJSU28, out of bounds at SJSU28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
43.9%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU23 (#50 G.Faga; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
43.9%
(00:21) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU23 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
43.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #84 E.Avit thrown to SJSU14Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
42.3%
(14:56) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 14:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2644% → 44%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
44.0%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush left for 6 yards gain to the SJSU25 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
44.2%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass intercepted by #3 A.Hamilton at SJSU37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:2460% → 63%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
40.0%
(14:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU22, for 16 yards to the SJSU21 (#0 C.Presley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
39.0%
(13:43) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#90 J.Moe; #7 J.Apalit-Williams)Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
38.8%
(13:03) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU19 (#57 J.Stearns; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+17
39.0%
(12:24) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU15, for 17 yards to the SJSU02 (#1 J.Pollard; #20 I.Revis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.8%
(11:46) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:44 #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0736% → 36%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.4%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SJSU24 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
36.1%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU33, for 9 yards to the SJSU33, out of bounds at SJSU33Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
36.5%
(10:45) Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU28Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
36.3%
(10:43) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 37 yards to the FS30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:3361% → 63%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
39.4%
(10:30) #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 3 yards gain to the FS33 (#0 C.Presley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+15
38.9%
(09:56) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at FS42, for 15 yards to the FS48 (#1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
38.2%
(09:19) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #84 E.Avit caught at FS44, for 5 yards loss to the FS43 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+12
37.9%
(08:40) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at SJSU45, for 12 yards to the SJSU45 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-58
37.2%
(08:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass intercepted by #1 J.Pollard at SJSU42 #1 J.Pollard return 58 yards to the FS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:50 #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #46 M.Fadelli) #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2860% → 62%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
40.4%
(07:44) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FS35 (#29 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+11
37.9%
(07:14) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the FS46 fumbled by #6 B.Donelson at FS42 forced by #7 J.Apalit-Williams recovered by SJSU #20 I.Revis at FS46, End Of Play. #87 J.Tarwater injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:0144% → 42%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
43.5%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass complete short right to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU50, for 8 yards to the FS38 (#1 J.Embry), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
43.6%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel rush right for 3 yards gain to the FS35, out of bounds at FS35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FS Holding (#1 J.Embry) 10 yards from FS35 to FS25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.0%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS17Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
44.9%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS20 broken up by #17 E.TierneySimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
43.3%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS29 broken up by #39 J.PearsonSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
41.8%
(06:01) #48 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 43 yards NO GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 06:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:0860% → 78%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.1%
(06:01) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FS33 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
39.9%
(05:28) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FS38 (#1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
37.6%
(04:49) #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS41 (#91 Q.Likio; #45 V.Taufatofua)Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
38.5%
(04:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #19 H.Duvall caught at FS45, for 12 yards to the SJSU47 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
37.7%
(03:41) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin; #51 S.Langi)Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
36.3%
(03:05) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU41 (#1 J.Pollard; #9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
34.5%
(02:23) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU38 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
32.3%
(01:59) #13 E.Warner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU37 (#1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
22.2%
(01:51) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU15, for 37 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN #5 J.Freeman rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:4831% → 31%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.7%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU33, for 8 yards to the SJSU33 (#1 J.Embry), out of bounds PENALTY FS Offside declinedSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
31.5%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJSU38, out of bounds at SJSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
31.8%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete deep middle to #39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa caught at FS33, for 29 yards to the FS33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.6%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short left to #1 L.Smith thrown to FS23 QB hurried by #39 J.PearsonSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
33.4%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short left to #39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa thrown to FS27Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
31.8%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at FS30, for 6 yards to the FS27 (#3 A.Hamilton; #39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
31.3%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to FS21 broken up by #0 K.Foreman, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3573% → 73%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
27.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FS26 (#51 S.Langi)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
26.7%
(00:13) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FS32 (#19 D.Tuihalangingie; #15 J.Bainer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:3576% → 79%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
24.4%
(14:55) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS22 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
24.1%
(14:20) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FS27 (#94 M.Hola; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+8
23.7%
(13:46) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #84 E.Avit caught at FS35, for 8 yards to the FS35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.9%
(13:10) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS38 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
21.2%
(12:37) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #89 B.Lium caught at FS40, for 2 yards to the FS40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-1
20.9%
(12:01) Shotgun #13 E.Warner sacked for loss of 1 yard to the FS39 (#90 J.Moe, #57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
21.5%
(11:23) #41 N.Verdugo punt 57 yards to the SJSU04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:4623% → 22%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
23.1%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU02Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+16
22.9%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush left for 16 yards gain to the SJSU20 (#44 D.Laffitte), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.3%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short middle to #4 K.Shoels thrown to SJSU31Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
23.1%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete deep middle to #4 K.Shoels thrown to SJSU45 broken up by #44 D.LaffitteSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-21
22.4%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass intercepted by #17 E.Tierney at FS47 #17 E.Tierney return 21 yards to the SJSU32 (#10 D.Scudero)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5982% → 85%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
18.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU29 (#4 T.Latu)Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
16.4%
(09:43) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU30, for 4 yards to the SJSU25 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
16.5%
(09:00) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU23 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
15.1%
(08:23) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 08:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:1419% → 20%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.2%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU28 (#22 C.Bracha) PENALTY FS Face Mask (#89 M.Hines) 15 yards from SJSU28 to SJSU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
20.9%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to FS15 PENALTY FS Face Mask (#1 J.Embry) 15 yards from SJSU43 to FS42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
21.3%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS30 broken up by #22 C.BrachaSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
21.0%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush middle for 17 yards gain to the FS25 (#39 J.Pearson) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#74 S.Nomani) 10 yards from FS42 to SJSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+15
19.7%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to FS08 PENALTY FS Pass Interference (#1 J.Embry) 15 yards from SJSU48 to FS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
21.0%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at FS33, for 5 yards to the FS32 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
21.9%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush right for 8 yards gain to the FS24 (#39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.2%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete deep left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS00Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
20.7%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FS17 (#1 J.Embry)Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
20.2%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS16 (#22 C.Bracha; #35 T.Khajavi). #15 S.Chavez-Soto injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 16
-1
19.8%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FS17 (#5 S.Harris), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0388% → 89%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
11.6%
(05:06) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 3 yards gain to the FS20 (#50 G.Faga; #91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
10.6%
(04:18) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to FS38Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
10.9%
(04:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FS38 broken up by #0 C.PresleySimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+9
11.1%
(04:08) #41 N.Verdugo punt 50 yards to the SJSU30 #29 J.Thomas return 9 yards to the SJSU39, out of bounds at SJSU39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4217% → 17%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
17.2%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush right for 7 yards gain to the SJSU46 (#11 J.Davis)Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+8
17.9%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU43, for 8 yards to the FS46 (#3 A.Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.1%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Canaan thrown to FS45Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
17.5%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Canaan thrown to FS45Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
17.1%
V. Teu run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
17.8%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 3 yards gain to the FS43 (#0 K.Foreman; #99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
17.3%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass incomplete deep right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to FS15Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
17.0%
(02:14) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 31 yards to the FS12 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FS12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1293% → 92%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
7.5%
(02:02) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FS18 (#90 J.Moe)Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
6.9%
(01:24) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FS24 (#20 I.Revis; #1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
6.6%
(00:41) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS25 (#92 N.Siaosi)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
6.0%
(15:00) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FS30 (#1 J.Pollard). #72 E.Fonua injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+10
7.7%
(14:45) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FS40 fumbled by #13 E.Warner at FS37 forced by #1 J.Pollard recovered by SJSU #29 J.Thomas at FS40 #29 J.Thomas return 1 yard to the FS39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 3:2315% → 11%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
15.2%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush left for 0 yards to the FS39 (#9 M.Xepera; #18 L.Studt)Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
12.2%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush right for 2 yards gain to the FS37 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+36
11.6%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short middle to #10 D.Scudero caught at FS18, for 36 yards to the FS01 (#17 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWN. #72 N.Hale injured on the playSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.6%
(12:28) Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 0 yards to the FS01 (#18 L.Studt; #96 N.Yeh)Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.1%
(11:46) Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #85 J.Canaan caught at FS01, for 0 yards to the FS01 (#1 J.Embry)Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.5%
(11:01) Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 1 yard gain to the FS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:59 #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5296% → 98%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.3%
(10:59) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FS34 (#0 C.Presley)Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+39
3.9%
(10:16) #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 39 yards gain to the SJSU27 (#20 I.Revis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
3.2%
(09:45) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU26 (#94 M.Hola; #91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
3.0%
(09:05) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SJSU16 (#50 G.Faga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
2.7%
(08:23) #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU11 (#90 J.Moe)Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
2.6%
(07:43) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 9 yards gain to the SJSU02 (#15 J.Bainer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.3%
(06:59) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:57 #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown) #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown) PENALTYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25INT
3 plays · -40 yds · 0:286% → 5%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
5.8%
(06:55) Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #24 S.Autry caught at SJSU18, for 2 yards to the SJSU25 (#11 J.Davis)Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-19
5.3%
(06:20) Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass intercepted by #11 J.Davis at SJSU40 #11 J.Davis return 19 yards to the SJSU21 (#4 K.Shoels)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5798% → 99%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
2.0%
(06:12) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#20 I.Revis; #7 J.Apalit-Williams)Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
1.8%
(05:29) #5 J.Freeman rush left for 0 yards to the SJSU19 (#1 J.Pollard; #29 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+4
1.7%
(04:48) #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU15 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
1.2%
(04:10) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 04:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.7%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at SJSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.1%
(04:01) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 0 yards to the SJSU41 (#89 E.Finau; #92 N.Siaosi)Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
1.1%
(03:20) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU39 (#90 J.Moe)Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
1.0%
(02:34) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJSU34 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+34
0.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 34 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJSU31 (#11 J.Davis)Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU36 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #57 Z.Rix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.2%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush right for 7 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#20 R.Regan; #57 Z.Rix)Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
0.1%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 8 yards gain to the FS49 (#13 C.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
(01:51) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at SJSU15, for 37 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN #5 J.Freeman rush attempt Successful
-10.2
FG · Q3 8:20
Timeout Fresno State, clock 08:20
-3.1
TD · Q2 1:45
Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:45
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com