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SDSU

San Diego State 23 at Fresno State 0

FRES
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:48 · (10:57) #41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the SDSU20 #2 J.Napier return 10 yards to the SDSU30 (#19 F.Claypool), out of bounds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense−5.5Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−1.6Pregame prior−5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:30: No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:30 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez) — SDSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:33: #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 01:33 — SDSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06: (00:06) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU41 for loss of 0 yards — SDSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:22: (13:27) #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 13:22 — SDSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:46: Tano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick) — SDSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:18SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23FRES 4th & 7 at SDSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:27FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:20SDSU 4th & 9 at FRES 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33SDSU 4th & 10 at FRES 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06FRES 4th & 10 at SDSU 41, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%
    32% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 35, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:56FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:22SDSU 4th & 9 at FRES 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:14SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:04FRES 4th & 5 at SDSU 12, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:52SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 21, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:04FRES 4th & 9 at SDSU 47, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 8:46SDSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:4258% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
41.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short middle to #19 S.Adams caught at SDSU41, for 12 yards to the SDSU47 (#3 A.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
42.0%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SDSU46 (#35 T.Khajavi; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
42.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush right for 3 yards gain to the SDSU49, out of bounds at SDSU49Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
42.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Napier thrown to FST20Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
42.4%
(13:27) #93 H.Green punt 51 yards to the FST00, Touchback PENALTY SDSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from FST20 to FST25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 40 yds · 5:5542% → 44%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.4%
(13:18) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST28 (#9 D.Staley)Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
42.6%
(12:58) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #1 J.McClain thrown to FST33Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
42.5%
(12:41) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST35, for 8 yards to the FST36 (#9 D.Staley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
42.8%
(12:20) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 13 yards gain to the FST49 (#2 T.White) PENALTY FST Holding (#1 J.McClain) 10 yards from FST36 to FST26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+9
42.9%
(11:47) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FST26, for 9 yards to the FST35 (#55 M.Finau)Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
43.1%
(11:10) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FST40 (#6 E.Butler)Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
43.2%
(10:45) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST50, for 12 yards to the SDSU48 (#1 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
44.1%
(10:00) #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU44 (#91 A.Comier; #12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
44.4%
(09:00) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush left for 6 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#0 B.Phillips), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
44.6%
(08:27) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SDSU30Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
44.6%
(08:13) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU35 (#2 T.White)Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
44.7%
(07:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #81 J.Brown thrown to SDSU23Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
44.3%
(07:31) #41 N.Verdugo punt 27 yards to the SDSU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 3:5356% → 61%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
44.1%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 8 yards gain to the SDSU16 (#8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+3
44.0%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU19 (#6 J.Jacks; #22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.2%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #16 W.Cianfrini thrown to FST45 PENALTY SDSU Holding offsetting FST Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.3%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short right thrown to SDSU21 broken up by #44 D.LaffitteSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
44.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #2 J.Napier caught at SDSU19, for 0 yards to the SDSU19 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
44.9%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Ford thrown to SDSU24 PENALTY FST Holding (#1 J.Embry) 10 yards from SDSU19 to SDSU29, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
44.4%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SDSU42 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
43.9%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU45 (#3 A.Hamilton; #94 J.Gandy)Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+54
43.8%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #21 B.Cardwell caught at FST40, for 54 yards to the FST01 (#17 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:30 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0341% → 40%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
(03:30) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #87 J.Tarwater thrown to FST42 broken up by #9 D.StaleySimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.8%
(03:24) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #81 J.Brown caught at FST30, for 7 yards to the FST32 (#26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
40.7%
(03:01) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #81 J.Brown thrown to FST45Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
40.0%
(02:34) #41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the SDSU24 fair catch by #2 J.Napier at SDSU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:0760% → 62%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
40.1%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short middle to #15 J.Ford caught at SDSU32, for 14 yards to the SDSU38 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
39.3%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush left for 11 yards gain to the SDSU49 (#3 A.Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
38.8%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST42 (#9 M.Xepera; #99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
38.5%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Brown thrown to FST01Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
38.6%
(01:04) PENALTY FST Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FST42 to FST37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
38.4%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST28 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
38.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST25 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
37.9%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST22 (#9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-4
37.8%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal sacked for loss of 7 yards to the FST29 (#44 D.Laffitte, #19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+5
38.7%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #21 B.Cardwell caught at FST28, for 5 yards to the FST24 (#11 J.Davis; #1 J.Embry)Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
38.0%
(12:47) #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 12:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3137% → 35%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
36.9%
(12:19) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST36 (#21 T.Letuli)Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
36.9%
(12:04) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 0 yards to the FST36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
36.1%
(11:01) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST45Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+10
35.4%
(10:57) #41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the SDSU20 #2 J.Napier return 10 yards to the SDSU30 (#19 F.Claypool), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:1863% → 68%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
37.1%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 3 yards gain to the SDSU33 (#11 J.Davis)Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
36.8%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #14 D.Brown caught at SDSU42, for 11 yards to the SDSU44 (#11 J.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
36.1%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short middle thrown to SDSU50 broken up by #94 J.GandySimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
36.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FST49 (#9 M.Xepera; #2 A.Cobb)Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
36.5%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush right for 2 yards gain to the FST47 (#35 T.Khajavi), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
36.9%
(08:44) #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST45 (#22 C.Bracha; #18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
33.1%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FST37 (#35 T.Khajavi; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
32.1%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FST32 (#39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
31.7%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass intercepted by #3 A.Hamilton at FST03, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:5533% → 32%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
33.4%
(06:30) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST04 (#54 K.Clay; #41 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
33.3%
(06:17) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST08 (#26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+9
32.4%
(05:35) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST18, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (#1 C.Johnson) 9 yards from FST08 to FST17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
33.3%
(05:17) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST10, for 7 yards to the FST24 (#26 D.McDougle), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+9
33.7%
(05:00) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #31 B.Ramirez caught at FST21, for 9 yards to the FST33 (#1 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
33.4%
(04:15) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST34 (#12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-2
33.2%
(03:35) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush right for 2 yards loss to the FST32 (#1 C.Johnson; #9 D.Staley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
31.6%
(02:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass intercepted by #56 A.Salvati at FST31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0070% → 74%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.9%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #2 J.Napier thrown to FST05Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
30.0%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST30 (#39 J.Pearson; #99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+4
29.6%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST26 (#44 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+5
30.5%
(01:38) PENALTY SDSU False Start 5 yards from FST26 to FST31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+50
26.5%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 01:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 39 yds · 1:2228% → 29%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.2%
(01:28) PENALTY FST False Start 5 yards from FST20 to FST15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+9
27.9%
(01:28) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FST24, for 9 yards to the FST24 (#26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
28.4%
(01:08) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST35 broken up by #12 O.ChamblissSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
27.7%
(01:05) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #1 J.McClain caught at FST32, for 14 yards to the FST38 (#56 A.Salvati), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
28.9%
(00:57) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST44, for 6 yards to the FST44 (#1 C.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+15
29.3%
(00:49) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right thrown to FST42 PENALTY SDSU Roughing The Passer 15 yards from FST44 to SDSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.3%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU41 (#10 R.Henderson)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
30.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #1 J.McClain thrown to SDSU25Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
28.7%
(00:18) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Farrar thrown to SDSU05Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
29.4%
(00:11) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Farrar thrown to SDSU20 broken up by #21 T.Letuli, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
22.0%
(00:06) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU41 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:1329% → 26%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
28.8%
(14:53) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at FST36, for 11 yards to the FST37 (#26 D.McDougle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
29.0%
(14:34) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST41 (#21 T.Letuli) PENALTY FST Personal Foul 15 yards from FST37 to FST22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+5
28.2%
PENALTY SDSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FST22 to FST27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+5
28.0%
(13:36) PENALTY FST False Start (#71 R.Fullwood) 5 yards from FST27 to FST22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+1
27.9%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST23 (#91 A.Comier; #94 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 24
OWN 23
+12
26.0%
(12:30) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #2 R.Luke caught at FST27, for 12 yards to the FST35 (#9 D.Staley; #12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 24
OWN 23
0
26.8%
(12:23) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Farrar thrown to FST50Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
26.0%
(12:07) #41 N.Verdugo punt 39 yards to the SDSU26 fair catch by #2 J.Napier at SDSU26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:4377% → 85%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
23.4%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #2 J.Napier caught at SDSU25, for 6 yards to the SDSU32 (#3 A.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
22.4%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU33 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
22.7%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short middle to #13 N.Acevedo caught at SDSU38, for 8 yards to the SDSU41 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
20.9%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 17 yards gain to the FST42 (#28 J.Briggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
20.2%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST38 (#19 F.Claypool; #39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
19.5%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 5 yards gain to the FST33 (#22 C.Bracha), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
19.4%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST30 (#8 M.Owusu; #9 M.Xepera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
18.6%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FST24 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
17.8%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST20 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
17.6%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST19 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+7
15.6%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush left for 7 yards gain to the FST12 (#28 J.Briggs), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
15.6%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST08 (#35 T.Khajavi; #39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+22
14.7%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Napier rush middle for 17 yards loss to the FST25 fumbled by #2 J.Napier at FST25 forced by #22 C.Bracha recovered by FST #6 J.Jacks at FST25 #6 J.Jacks return 22 yards to the FST47 (#5 B.Emanuel, Jr.; #2 J.Napier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0123% → 21%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.3%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SDSU15Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
22.8%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST49 (#17 D.McCuin)Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
21.9%
(04:32) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SDSU25Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
21.2%
(04:02) #41 N.Verdugo punt 42 yards to the SDSU09 fair catch by #2 J.Napier at SDSU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:3485% → 93%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
15.4%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Napier rush right for 8 yards gain to the SDSU17 (#1 J.Embry), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+6
15.0%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SDSU23 (#6 J.Jacks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
14.8%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 16 yards gain to the SDSU39 (#39 J.Pearson; #29 J.Carrillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
13.6%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #2 J.Napier caught at SDSU40, for 7 yards to the SDSU46, out of bounds at SDSU46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
13.2%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush right for 0 yards to the SDSU46, out of bounds at SDSU46Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+6
12.8%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #15 J.Ford caught at SDSU48, for 6 yards to the FST48 (#1 J.Embry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
12.9%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #12 K.Crum caught at FST50, for 3 yards to the FST45 (#11 J.Davis) PENALTY SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from FST48 to SDSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+46
13.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 46 yards gain to the FST07, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
12.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FST09 (#9 M.Xepera; #5 S.Harris)Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
12.4%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 0 yards to the FST09 (#39 J.Pearson; #9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
12.4%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short right to #14 D.Brown thrown to FST00 broken up by #1 J.EmbrySimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
7.3%
(13:27) #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 13:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5812% → 10%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.2%
(13:22) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FST32 (#9 D.Staley)Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
12.9%
(12:46) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #2 R.Luke caught at FST25, for 2 yards to the FST34 (#21 T.Letuli)Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
11.7%
(12:01) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 5 yards loss to the FST29 (#12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
9.8%
(11:30) #41 N.Verdugo punt 36 yards to the SDSU35 fair catch by #35 H.Haines at SDSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
5.5%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal sacked for loss of 1 yard to the SDSU34 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
5.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU36 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+1
5.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #2 J.Napier caught at SDSU37, for 1 yard to the SDSU37 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
4.6%
#93 H.Green punt 50 yards to the FST13 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:287% → 2%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
7.0%
(09:14) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST26Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
6.9%
(09:09) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep middle to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to FST34. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-31
1.9%
Tano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:422% → 1%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.0%
(08:46) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 9 yards gain to the FST34 (#1 C.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
2.1%
(08:31) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST36 (#12 O.Chambliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
1.7%
(07:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FST37, for 4 yards to the FST40 (#6 E.Butler; #9 D.Staley)Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
1.3%
(07:03) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #11 J.Farrar caught at FST47, for 13 yards to the SDSU47 (#9 D.Staley; #12 O.Chambliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
1.3%
(06:34) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 4 yards gain to the SDSU43 (#26 D.McDougle; #0 B.Phillips)Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
1.3%
(05:37) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 5 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#6 E.Butler; #29 J.Hunter)Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
1.3%
(05:21) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU31 (#1 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
1.3%
(04:49) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #15 K.Beachem caught at SDSU17, for 14 yards to the SDSU17, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
1.2%
(04:00) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at SDSU12, for 5 yards to the SDSU12 fumbled by #2 R.Luke at SDSU12, out of bounds at SDSU12Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
1.2%
(03:21) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SDSU00 broken up by #9 D.StaleySimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
1.1%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to SDSU11Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 5
OPP 12
0
1.1%
(03:09) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SDSU07, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1299% → 100%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
0.6%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SDSU10 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+2
0.6%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU12 (#19 F.Claypool; #9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+9
0.6%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. rush right for 9 yards gain to the SDSU21 (#4 R.Miller)Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+52
0.4%
(02:00) #93 H.Green punt 52 yards to the FST27 muffed by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST27 recovered by FST #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST26, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
0.7%
(01:52) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at FST40, for 14 yards to the FST40, out of bounds at FST40, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:52) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu thrown to FST41)Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.7%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Farrar thrown to SDSU43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
0.7%
(01:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at FST48, for 8 yards to the FST48 (#13 P.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
0.7%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #11 J.Farrar caught at SDSU48, for 4 yards to the SDSU48 (#10 R.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
0.7%
(01:11) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush left for 6 yards gain to the SDSU42 (#42 B.Anderson)Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-19
0.8%
(01:02) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin sacked for loss of 19 yards to the FST39 (#44 N.King)Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 23
OWN 39
+14
0.7%
(00:45) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #33 E.Gilliam caught at FST43, for 14 yards to the SDSU47 (#20 J.McLaughlin)Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
0.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Farrar thrown to SDSU15, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
0.3%
(00:04) Kneel down by #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. at SDSU46 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06
(00:06) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU41 for loss of 0 yards
-7.4
FG · Q4 13:22
(13:27) #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 13:22
-5.1
TD · Q4 8:46
Tano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com