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USU

Utah State 28 at Fresno State 17

FRES
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:15 · (04:26) #41 N.Verdugo punt 37 yards to the UST05, out of bounds at UST05
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−4.4Garbage-time factor−1.8Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Pregame prior+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:05: Rayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +3.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:27: Brady Boyd 24 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +2.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:37: Javen Jacobs 19 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +1.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:20: (03:17) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST42, for 2 yards loss to the FST42, out of bounds at FST42 — FRES win probability +20.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 6:05: Javen Jacobs 32 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +1.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 11USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:06USU 4th & 14 at FRES 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:32USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:58USU 4th & 17 at USU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:30FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:26FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:48USU 4th & 23 at USU 6, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:18FRES 4th & 2 at USU 12, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%−1.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:36USU 4th & 7 at USU 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:15FRES 4th & 2 at USU 42, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:50USU 4th & 12 at USU 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:55FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:00FRES 4th & 21 at USU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:08FRES 4th & 3 at USU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.0%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:09FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 30, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:50FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:05FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 22, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:05FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:5446% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UST27 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UST26 (#39 J.Pearson; #19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete deep left to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST48, for 22 yards to the UST48, out of bounds at UST48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #7 K.Davis caught at FST35, for 20 yards to the FST32 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Davis thrown to FST15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
53.8%
PENALTY UST False Start (#87 B.Lane) 5 yards from FST32 to FST37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+1
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 1 yard gain to the FST36 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Davis thrown to FST20 broken up by #37 R.Wilson QB hurried by #0 K.ForemanSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
54.2%
(12:14) #19 L.Rehkow punt 20 yards to the FST16, out of bounds at FST16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1754% → 54%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
54.2%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST20 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+8
54.3%
(11:34) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FST28 (#1 N.Avinger; #9 T.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
54.4%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST29 (#28 C.Tujague)Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
54.4%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #84 E.Avit caught at FST30, for 1 yard to the FST30 (#34 D.Tucker)Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
54.3%
(09:59) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #15 K.Beachem caught at FST35, for 6 yards to the FST36 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+5
54.4%
(09:31) PENALTY FST Delay Of Game (#41 N.Verdugo) 5 yards from FST36 to FST31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
54.3%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the UST25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3246% → 45%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep middle to #10 A.Garcia thrown to FST40Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 0 yards to the UST25 (#9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.6%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #10 A.Garcia caught at UST32, for 7 yards to the UST32 (#37 R.Wilson)Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
54.6%
(07:36) #19 L.Rehkow punt 38 yards to the FST30 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 1 yard to the FST31 (#15 D.Mayes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
57.7%
Rayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 14 yds · 4:0743% → 40%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.5%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush left for 1 yard gain to the UST26 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
57.6%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UST34 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
57.5%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the UST34 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Br. Barnes run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
58.2%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UST46 (#22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
57.0%
PENALTY UST False Start (#72 G.Maile) 5 yards from UST46 to UST41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
58.0%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Pegan rush right for 0 yards to the UST41 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
58.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST45, for 5 yards to the UST46 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-7
58.2%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UST39 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
59.6%
(03:04) #19 L.Rehkow punt 40 yards to the FST21 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2860% → 57%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
60.0%
(02:58) Shotgun #20 D.Rivers rush left for 2 yards loss to the FST19 (#28 C.Tujague)Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+13
59.9%
(02:25) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST32, for 13 yards to the FST32, out of bounds at FST32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.1%
(02:18) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST33 (#9 T.Morris)Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
60.3%
(01:35) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST45Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+8
59.9%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FST41 (#9 T.Morris). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST42 (#9 T.Morris), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-1
56.6%
Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FST40 (#18 I.Larsen), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:2046% → 48%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.3%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep left to #11 B.Pegan thrown to FST10Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
54.4%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FST34 (#5 S.Harris) PENALTY FST Holding (#89 M.Hines) 10 yards from FST34 to FST24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.9%
Brady Boyd 24 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5057% → 51%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
56.6%
(00:16) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST45 (#10 G.Iniguez Jr.)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
52.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #5 J.Freeman rush left for 55 yards gain to the UST00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:49 PENALTY FST Holding (#15 K.Beachem) 10 yards from FST45 to FST35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+6
50.5%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #84 E.Avit caught at FST41, for 6 yards to the FST41, out of bounds at FST41Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
50.0%
(14:11) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #2 R.Luke caught at FST45, for 8 yards to the FST49 (#32 C.Doty)Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
50.6%
(13:34) #41 N.Verdugo punt 32 yards to the UST19 fair catch by #7 K.Davis at UST19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:3851% → 50%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
49.5%
(13:26) PENALTY UST False Start (#62 J.Sia) 5 yards from UST19 to UST14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
49.6%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UST28Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-1
49.8%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #8 J.Jacobs caught at UST13, for 1 yard loss to the UST13 (#94 J.Gandy)Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 16
OWN 13
-7
50.1%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UST06 (#0 K.Foreman)Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 23
OWN 6
0
50.4%
(11:57) #19 L.Rehkow punt 55 yards to the FST39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:3049% → 48%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
49.4%
(11:48) Shotgun #13 E.Warner sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FST34 (#9 T.Morris)Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+9
48.5%
(11:21) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST43 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+9
49.2%
(10:20) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST47, for 9 yards to the UST48 (#1 N.Avinger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
50.5%
(10:05) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UST45 (#20 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+13
50.0%
(09:26) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 13 yards gain to the UST32 (#25 C.Joe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
51.1%
(08:44) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #0 J.Arceneaux caught at UST23, for 12 yards to the UST20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
50.1%
(08:07) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UST12 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
49.9%
(07:37) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the UST12 (#20 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
48.5%
(06:47) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 0 yards to the UST12 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
47.8%
Dylan Lynch 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4256% → 54%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.2%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UST28 (#37 R.Wilson)Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
43.7%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short middle to #87 B.Lane thrown to UST47Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
44.6%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UST35 broken up by #5 S.HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
45.8%
(05:44) #19 L.Rehkow punt 22 yards to the UST50, out of bounds at UST50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1349% → 47%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
48.5%
(05:28) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UST46 (#1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
48.5%
(05:01) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush right for 4 yards gain to the UST42 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
48.1%
(04:35) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to UST35 broken up by #1 N.AvingerSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
47.1%
(04:26) #41 N.Verdugo punt 37 yards to the UST05, out of bounds at UST05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:2556% → 56%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
44.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush left for 6 yards gain to the UST11 (#1 J.Embry)Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+5
43.9%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UST16 (#89 M.Hines), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
43.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST20, for 14 yards to the UST30 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UST45Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
42.3%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UST29 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-1
43.5%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST28, for 1 yard loss to the UST28 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
44.2%
(02:00) #19 L.Rehkow punt 45 yards to the FST27 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:1144% → 50%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
43.8%
(01:50) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FST25, for 2 yards to the FST29 (#12 B.Arnold III)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+13
43.7%
(01:26) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FST36, for 13 yards to the FST42 (#18 I.Larsen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
45.2%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST46, for 6 yards to the FST48 (#32 C.Doty)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-1
46.2%
Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 1 yard loss to the FST47 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+10
45.2%
(01:03) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at UST43, for 10 yards to the UST43 (#1 N.Avinger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
46.6%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to UST35Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
49.8%
Jahlil McClain 43 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:3059% → 57%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
41.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST46, for 15 yards to the UST46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 11 yards gain to the FST43 (#22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
42.5%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Pegan thrown to FST28Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
42.9%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 15 yards gain to the FST28 (#39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+46
43.1%
Tanner Rinker 46 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5245% → 43%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
44.8%
(14:54) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 3 yards gain to the FST26 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
44.8%
(14:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #87 J.Tarwater thrown to FST20Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
43.4%
(14:06) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST40Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 7
OWN 26
-3
42.5%
(14:06) #41 N.Verdugo punt 49 yards to the UST25 #7 K.Davis return for loss of 3 yards to the UST22 (#29 J.Carrillo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 8:2358% → 67%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
41.7%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 18 yards gain to the UST40 (#1 J.Embry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.9%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the UST40 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
39.0%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST50, for 10 yards to the UST50 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
38.1%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST46 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
37.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST44 (#89 M.Hines)Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
37.9%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #2 M.Davis caught at FST43, for 5 yards to the FST39 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
37.1%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Garcia rush right for 10 yards gain to the FST29, out of bounds at FST29, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
36.3%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #5 B.Boyd caught at FST22, for 7 yards to the FST22 (#37 R.Wilson)Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+10
34.9%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST19 (#44 D.Laffitte) PENALTY UST Holding (#65 T.Motu'apuaka) 10 yards from FST22 to FST32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+5
35.1%
PENALTY UST False Start (#55 J.Liston) 5 yards from FST32 to FST37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+17
35.9%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #7 K.Davis caught at FST20, for 17 yards to the FST20, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+6
35.1%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FST14 (#18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
34.0%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST11 (#94 J.Gandy)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
33.7%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the FST11 (#25 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+7
34.2%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at FST04, for 7 yards to the FST04 (#3 A.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
33.2%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST02 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.8%
Bryson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5340% → 38%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.1%
(05:02) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 3 yards gain to the FST28 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+44
40.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 44 yards gain to the UST28 (#18 I.Larsen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
46.4%
PENALTY FST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#0 J.Arceneaux) 15 yards from UST28 to UST43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 25
OPP 43
0
42.3%
(04:00) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 0 yards to the UST43 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 25
OPP 43
+4
41.9%
(03:26) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at UST37, for 4 yards to the UST39 (#1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 21
OPP 39
0
40.2%
(02:43) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 0 yards to the UST39 (#25 C.Joe)Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
37.5%
(02:03) #41 N.Verdugo punt 35 yards to the UST04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2766% → 66%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
34.0%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #8 J.Jacobs caught at UST01, for 5 yards to the UST09 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+10
34.2%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush right for 10 yards gain to the UST19 fumbled by #2 M.Davis at UST15 forced by #22 C.Bracha recovered by FST #39 J.Pearson at UST19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3946% → 43%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
45.8%
(01:15) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to UST00 broken up by #1 N.AvingerSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
45.8%
(01:11) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at UST15, for 8 yards to the UST11 (#1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-17
43.3%
(00:39) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass intercepted by #14 B.Olevao Jr. at UST03 #14 B.Olevao Jr. return 17 yards to the UST20 (#88 R.Anderson III) PENALTY FST Pass Interference declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
20 plays · 80 yds · 4:5367% → 77%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.4%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Jacobs thrown to UST20 QB hurried by #9 M.XeperaSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
33.6%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UST26 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
33.0%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep middle to #10 A.Garcia thrown to FST43 broken up by #1 J.EmbrySimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
32.8%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at UST29, for 7 yards to the UST33 (#35 T.Khajavi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
31.4%
PENALTY UST False Start (#65 T.Motu'apuaka) 5 yards from UST33 to UST28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+2
32.9%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UST30 (#0 K.Foreman)Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
32.9%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UST37Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+5
33.9%
PENALTY UST False Start (#55 J.Liston) 5 yards from UST30 to UST25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UST17 (#19 F.Claypool) PENALTY FST Offside (#0 K.Foreman) 5 yards from UST25 to UST30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+13
33.1%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 13 yards gain to the UST43 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.5%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #10 A.Garcia thrown to FST45 broken up by #3 A.HamiltonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
28.8%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 2 yards gain to the UST45 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
28.0%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #5 B.Boyd caught at FST44, for 11 yards to the FST44 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
25.8%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Pegan thrown to FST40 broken up by #39 J.PearsonSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
25.8%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 4 yards to the FST48 (#89 M.Hines) PENALTY FST Face Mask (#89 M.Hines) 15 yards from FST44 to FST29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
24.9%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FST23 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
24.5%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST19 (#25 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
22.7%
Javen Jacobs 19 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 10:4343% → 28%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
43.3%
(03:17) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST42, for 2 yards loss to the FST42, out of bounds at FST42Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
41.2%
(02:52) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #2 R.Luke caught at FST46, for 4 yards to the FST46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
40.1%
(02:30) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #88 R.Anderson III caught at UST49, for 5 yards to the UST49 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+2
41.5%
(02:15) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at UST46, for 2 yards to the UST47 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
27.5%
(03:27) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST30, for 11 yards to the FST44 (#20 J.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 13 yds · 11:5272% → 91%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
27.8%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UST50 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
23.3%
(09:48) Kneel down by #16 B.Barnes at FST40 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
50
+5
8.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UST41 (#19 F.Claypool) PENALTY FST Offside (#99 M.Jordan Jr.) 5 yards from UST50 to FST45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+2
8.8%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 2 yards gain to the FST43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
8.9%
(00:52) Kneel down by #16 B.Barnes at FST44 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
9.1%
(00:48) PENALTY FST Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FST44 to FST39. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0736% → 34%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
35.8%
(10:19) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST26 (#9 T.Morris)Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
37.0%
(09:53) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FST30, for 4 yards to the FST30 (#44 B.Maile), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
35.8%
(09:16) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #33 E.Gilliam thrown to FST33 broken up by #18 I.LarsenSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
34.4%
(09:16) #41 N.Verdugo punt 45 yards to the UST25 fair catch by #7 K.Davis at UST25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5573% → 84%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UST36 (#6 J.Jacks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
25.6%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UST45 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
22.9%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 0 yards to the UST45 (#44 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
19.6%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UST48 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
19.2%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Pegan thrown to FST15 PENALTY FST Pass Interference (#1 J.Embry) 15 yards from UST48 to FST37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
17.6%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FST32 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+32
16.1%
Javen Jacobs 32 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:1427% → 22%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
26.8%
E.J. Warner pass to R. Anderson IIISimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
26.3%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FST10, for 2 yards to the FST10 (#20 J.Miller)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
26.3%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short middle to #2 R.Luke thrown to FST16Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+16
25.3%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FST26, for 16 yards to the FST26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
27.8%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST30 (#20 J.Miller)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
27.8%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST34, for 4 yards to the FST34 (#34 D.Tucker)Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-7
28.2%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner sacked for loss of 7 yards to the FST27 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
22.3%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short middle to #10 J.Malau’ulu thrown to FST45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
21.8%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete deep middle to #10 J.Malau’ulu thrown to FST45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1788% → 88%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
12.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST24 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
12.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 0 yards to the FST24 fumbled by #8 J.Jacobs at FST24 recovered by UST #62 J.Sia at FST24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
12.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass intercepted by #44 D.Laffitte at FST28 #44 D.Laffitte return 5 yards to the FST33 (#16 B.Barnes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:20
(03:17) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST42, for 2 yards loss to the FST42, out of bounds at FST42
+20.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.3
TD · Q1 7:05
Rayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com