FRES
Fresno State 21 at Colorado State 49
CSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey play
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FRES · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q1 15:00
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.5%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 28
39.7%
-2.8
Q1 14:09
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 14 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST down
39.1%
-0.6
Q1 13:40
Rayshon Luke run for 7 yds to the FRES 49
37.7%
-1.4
Q1 13:08
(13:13) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short left to Brown,Jordan caught at FRESNO46, for 7 yards to the CSU44 (Myers,Dagan) PENALTY FRESNO Holding (Anderson III,Richie) 10 yards from FRESNO49 to FRESNO39. NO PLAY.
37.0%
-0.8
Q1 12:40
E.J. Warner sacked by Owen Long for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 32
38.0%
+1.0
Q1 12:00
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 15 yds to the FRES 47
39.1%
+1.1
Q1 11:22
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dagan Myers at the CSU 14
37.3%
-1.8
CSU · Drive 2TD · 3 plays · 86 yds
Q1 11:17
Jalen Dupree run for 10 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST down
42.8%
+5.5
Q1 10:33
Jackson Brousseau run for 3 yds to the CSU 27
42.8%
0.0
Q1 9:59
Justin Marshall run for 73 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
58.0%
+15.3
FRES · Drive 3INT · 7 plays · 31 yds
Q1 9:59
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
58.0%
0.0
Q1 9:52
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 29
53.5%
-4.6
Q1 9:19
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 2 yds to the FRES 31
53.6%
+0.1
Q1 8:34
E.J. Warner pass complete to Harold Duvall for 23 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST down
53.2%
-0.4
Q1 8:01
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the CSU 44
51.6%
-1.6
Q1 7:21
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jake Tarwater
51.6%
0.0
Q1 7:10
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jace Bellah return for 27 yds to the CSU 47
51.6%
0.0
CSU · Drive 4TD · 5 plays · 53 yds
Q1 7:03
Jackson Brousseau run for 1 yd to the CSU 48
59.2%
+7.6
Q1 6:28
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the FRES 48
59.4%
+0.2
Q1 5:51
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down
59.1%
-0.3
Q1 5:19
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
59.8%
+0.7
Q1 5:13
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 29 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
70.6%
+10.8
FRES · Drive 5DOWNS · 6 plays · 27 yds
Q1 5:13
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.3%
-0.3
Q1 5:04
Brandon Ramirez run for 19 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST down
69.5%
-0.8
Q1 4:31
Brandon Ramirez run for 5 yds to the FRES 49
69.5%
0.0
Q1 3:52
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the CSU 47
69.1%
-0.4
Q1 3:06
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 49
69.2%
+0.1
Q1 2:36
Jake Tarwater run for 1 yd to the CSU 48
69.2%
0.0
CSU · Drive 6TD · 11 plays · 52 yds
Q1 2:31
Fresno State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jomarion Briggs) to the FRES 33 for a 1ST down
70.5%
+1.3
Q1 2:08
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani Winfield
70.6%
+0.2
Q1 2:08
Timeout Colorado State, clock 02:08
71.0%
+0.4
Q1 2:00
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the FRES 27
71.0%
0.0
Q1 1:19
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 10 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down
70.9%
-0.1
Q1 0:46
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the FRES 12
71.1%
+0.2
Q1 0:13
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:13
73.2%
+2.1
Q1 0:09
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Jordan Ross
73.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST down
73.0%
-0.3
Q2 14:53
Jalen Dupree run for no gain to the FRES 4
73.2%
+0.2
Q2 14:11
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
84.3%
+11.1
FRES · Drive 7TD · 6 plays · 76 yds
Q2 14:03
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds , Rayshon Luke return for 24 yds to the FRES 24
84.3%
0.0
Q2 13:58
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 27
79.8%
-4.6
Q2 13:20
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 20 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chance Harrison) to the CSU 38 for a 1ST down
79.8%
0.0
Q2 12:53
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 6 yds to the CSU 32
79.3%
-0.5
Q2 12:18
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 9 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST down
78.6%
-0.7
Q2 11:42
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
66.2%
-12.4
CSU · Drive 8TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q2 11:42
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
67.9%
+1.7
Q2 11:30
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 2 yds to the CSU 27
73.1%
+5.2
Q2 10:59
Javion Kinnard run for 9 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down
74.7%
+1.6
Q2 10:21
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Deijon Laffitte) to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down
74.8%
+0.1
Q2 9:54
Jackson Brousseau run for 5 yds to the FRES 38
75.1%
+0.3
Q2 9:21
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 4 yds to the FRES 34
75.1%
0.0
Q2 8:44
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the FRES 34
74.9%
-0.2
Q2 8:05
Timeout Colorado State, clock 08:05
73.9%
-1.0
Q2 7:57
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST down
73.9%
0.0
Q2 7:35
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Rocky Beers
74.4%
+0.5
Q2 7:28
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the FRES 23
74.4%
0.0
Q2 6:59
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 25
74.2%
-0.2
Q2 6:34
PENALTY FRESNO Offside (Jordan Jr.,Michael) 5 yards from FRESNO25 to FRESNO20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
73.9%
-0.3
Q2 6:08
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
91.5%
+17.5
FRES · Drive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD · 2 plays · 11 yds
Q2 6:08
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.2%
-0.2
Q2 5:58
Paul Tangelo 36 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
88.6%
-2.6
FRES · Drive 10TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q2 5:51
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.3%
+4.6
Q2 5:45
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 25
88.6%
-4.6
Q2 5:06
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 14 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down
90.7%
+2.1
Q2 4:31
Rayshon Luke run for 8 yds to the FRES 47
90.5%
-0.2
Q2 4:00
PENALTY FRESNO False Start 5 yards from FRESNO47 to FRESNO42. NO PLAY.
90.5%
0.0
Q2 3:26
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
90.5%
0.0
Q2 2:56
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
90.5%
0.0
Q2 2:51
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST down
90.5%
0.0
Q2 2:15
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the CSU 36
90.0%
-0.5
Q2 2:00
Timeout Colorado State, clock 02:00
90.0%
0.0
Q2 1:51
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 10 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST down
90.0%
0.0
Q2 1:30
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson III
90.0%
0.0
Q2 1:26
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
90.0%
0.0
Q2 1:20
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
85.4%
-4.6
CSU · Drive 11PUNT · 7 plays · -4 yds
Q2 1:20
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
86.0%
+0.6
Q2 1:15
Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:15
93.3%
+7.3
Q2 1:15
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 28
93.3%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:11
93.3%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Jackson Brousseau sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 24
93.3%
0.0
Q2 1:02
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 21
93.3%
0.0
Q2 0:15
Bryan Hansen punt for 42 yds
93.1%
-0.1
FRES · Drive 12END OF HALF · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q2 0:04
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the FRES 46
87.0%
-6.2
Q2 0:00
PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Freeman,Josiah) 5 yards from FRESNO46 to FRESNO41. NO PLAY.
87.0%
0.0
CSU · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q3 15:00
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
86.7%
-0.3
Q3 14:49
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the CSU 30
92.3%
+5.6
Q3 14:17
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 8 yards to the CSU 22
92.3%
0.0
Q3 13:39
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Justin Marshall
92.3%
0.0
Q3 13:29
Bryan Hansen punt for 54 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 10 yds to the FRES 34
92.6%
+0.3
FRES · Drive 14PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q3 13:17
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 12 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down
87.1%
-5.5
Q3 12:37
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 40
86.9%
-0.1
Q3 12:03
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClain
87.2%
+0.2
Q3 11:57
(12:03) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short right to Freeman,Josiah caught at CSU45, for 15 yards to the CSU45 (Rogers,Jahari) PENALTY FRESNO Holding (Polendo,Julian) 10 yards from FRESNO40 to FRESNO30. NO PLAY.
87.2%
0.0
Q3 11:42
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
87.2%
0.0
Q3 11:33
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 yds
87.2%
0.0
CSU · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q3 11:27
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the CSU 33
92.6%
+5.5
Q3 10:53
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the CSU 36
92.6%
-0.1
Q3 10:07
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 4 yds to the CSU 40
92.8%
+0.3
Q3 9:26
Bryan Hansen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 12
93.4%
+0.5
Q3 9:26
Bryan Hansen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 27
93.4%
0.0
FRES · Drive 16TD · 11 plays · 73 yds
Q3 9:20
Brandon Ramirez run for 4 yds to the FRES 31
88.4%
-5.0
Q3 8:43
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson III
88.4%
0.0
Q3 8:43
PENALTY CSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from FRESNO31 to FRESNO46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
88.4%
0.0
Q3 8:33
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 6 yds to the CSU 48
88.4%
0.0
Q3 7:58
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 12 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down
88.4%
0.0
Q3 7:22
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 6 yds to the CSU 30
88.3%
-0.1
Q3 6:45
Rayshon Luke run for 14 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kamron Beachem) to the CSU 26 for a 1ST down
88.4%
+0.1
Q3 6:35
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Harold Duvall
88.4%
0.0
Q3 6:26
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 3 yds to the CSU 23
88.4%
0.0
Q3 5:51
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
77.7%
-10.7
Q3 5:51
Warner,E.J. pass attempt failed PENALTY FRESNO Face Mask (Penright,Toreon) 15 yards from CSU03 to CSU18. NO PLAY.
88.4%
+10.7
CSU · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 5:51
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
79.2%
-9.2
Q3 5:48
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Justin Marshall
81.5%
+2.3
Q3 5:42
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the CSU 28
81.9%
+0.3
Q3 5:01
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the CSU 32
81.9%
0.0
Q3 4:12
Bryan Hansen punt for 42 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 4 yds to the FRES 30
82.5%
+0.7
FRES · Drive 18DOWNS · 8 plays · 51 yds
Q3 4:04
Brandon Ramirez run for 7 yds to the FRES 37
80.0%
-2.5
Q3 3:49
Brandon Ramirez run for 10 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alton Tarber IV) to the CSU 38 for a 1ST down
80.0%
0.0
Q3 3:36
PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Walton,Brayden) 5 yards from CSU38 to CSU43. NO PLAY.
79.6%
-0.5
Q3 3:11
Colorado State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CSU 23 for a 1ST down
79.7%
+0.2
Q3 2:42
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 24
79.3%
-0.5
Q3 2:01
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the CSU 19
79.3%
0.0
Q3 1:27
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Brandon Ramirez
79.3%
0.0
Q3 1:18
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
79.6%
+0.3
CSU · Drive 19PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q3 1:15
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 26
85.2%
+5.6
Q3 0:38
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 2 yds to the CSU 28
85.2%
0.0
Q3 0:09
Timeout Colorado State, clock 00:09
85.2%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 26
85.2%
0.0
Q4 14:51
Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 8 yds to the FRES 27
85.2%
0.0
Q4 14:51
Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 16
85.2%
0.0
FRES · Drive 20DOWNS · 7 plays · 45 yds
Q4 14:41
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 8 yds to the FRES 24
85.1%
-0.1
Q4 14:06
Bryson Donelson run for 10 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down
85.1%
0.0
Q4 13:15
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 33 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST down
85.6%
+0.5
Q4 13:01
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 35
85.5%
-0.1
Q4 12:19
E.J. Warner sacked by Paul Tangelo for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 39
87.0%
+1.5
Q4 11:38
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
87.4%
+0.4
Q4 11:34
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClain
87.4%
0.0
CSU · Drive 21TD · 5 plays · 61 yds
Q4 11:25
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 42
88.3%
+0.9
Q4 11:01
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the CSU 44
88.3%
0.0
Q4 10:15
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 41 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST down
88.3%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the FRES 12
88.7%
+0.3
Q4 9:15
Lloyd Avant run for 12 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
96.2%
+7.6
FRES · Drive 22INT · 19 plays · 69 yds
Q4 9:15
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.2%
0.0
Q4 9:05
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the FRES 30
93.2%
-3.1
Q4 8:48
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Rayshon Luke
93.2%
0.0
Q4 8:38
E.J. Warner run for 6 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down
93.2%
0.0
Q4 8:15
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 24 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST down
93.2%
0.0
Q4 7:53
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 43
93.0%
-0.2
Q4 7:29
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClain
93.0%
0.0
Q4 7:22
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'ulu
93.0%
0.0
Q4 7:19
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kamron Beachem
93.0%
0.0
Q4 7:19
(07:25) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Beachem,Kamron thrown to CSU25 PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Long,Owen) 15 yards from CSU43 to CSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
93.0%
0.0
Q4 7:13
E.J. Warner sacked by Lemondre Joe for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 31
93.0%
0.0
Q4 6:41
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 10 yds to the CSU 21
93.0%
0.0
Q4 6:11
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
93.0%
0.0
Q4 6:00
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 5 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST down
93.0%
0.0
Q4 5:38
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 9 yds to the CSU 7
93.0%
0.0
Q4 5:22
E.J. Warner run for 6 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST down
93.0%
0.0
Q4 4:53
(04:51) PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Tarwater,Jake) 5 yards from CSU01 to CSU06. NO PLAY.
93.2%
+0.1
Q4 4:34
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman
93.2%
0.0
Q4 4:30
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback. CJ Blocker return for no gain
93.2%
0.0
CSU · Drive 23PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q4 4:30
PENALTY CSU False Start (Karas,Aaron) 5 yards from CSU20 to CSU15. NO PLAY.
96.3%
+3.1
Q4 4:21
Jalen Dupree run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 14
96.3%
+0.1
Q4 3:37
Jalen Dupree run for 14 yds to the CSU 28
96.4%
0.0
Q4 3:29
Timeout Colorado State, clock 03:29
96.4%
0.0
Q4 3:22
Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd to the CSU 29
96.4%
0.0
Q4 2:33
Bryan Hansen punt for 47 yds
96.4%
0.0
FRES · Drive 24INT · 3 plays · -12 yds
Q4 2:25
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClain
93.9%
-2.5
Q4 2:23
(02:28) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short middle to Anderson III,Richie caught at FRESNO35, for 17 yards to the FRESNO41 (Vincent,Jett) PENALTY FRESNO Pass Interference (Anderson III,Richie) 12 yards from FRESNO24 to FRESNO12. NO PLAY.
93.9%
0.0
Q4 2:00
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jace Bellah return for 26 yds to the FRES 7
93.8%
-0.1
CSU · Drive 25TD · 3 plays · 7 yds
Q4 2:00
Timeout Colorado State, clock 02:00
96.4%
+2.6
Q4 1:53
Jalen Dupree run for 3 yds to the FRES 4
96.5%
+0.1
Q4 1:12
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
97.0%
+0.4
FRES · Drive 26END OF GAME · 3 plays · 14 yds
Q4 1:12
Isaiah Hankins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.0%
0.0
Q4 1:03
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 5 yds to the FRES 30
95.7%
-1.2
Q4 0:00
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down
95.7%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:08
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q1 9:59
Justin Marshall run for 73 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 11:42
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-12.4