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WYO

Wyoming 3 at Fresno State 24

FRES
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreWYO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:08 · (05:17) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #87 J.Tarwater caught at WYO30, for 10 yards to the WYO26 (#3 A.Johnson; #40 T.Westland), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+11.0Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Pregame prior+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:52: Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:52 — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:26: (00:31) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 00:26 — FRES win probability +4.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: (00:26) Kneel down by #12 K.Anderson at WYO24 for loss of 1 yard — WYO win probability +6.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:58: (13:05) #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 58 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown) — FRES win probability +13.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:00: Josiah Freeman 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 11WYO made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:15WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50FRES 4th & 3 at WYO 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:52FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:39WYO 4th & 9 at FRES 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:24FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:22WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:15WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:19FRES 4th & 1 at WYO 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:37WYO 4th & 23 at WYO 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:37FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:43WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:26FRES 4th & 7 at WYO 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:51WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:40WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:08FRES 4th & 6 at WYO 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:27FRES 4th & 6 at WYO 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−8.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:28WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:06FRES 4th & 8 at WYO 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:30WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:41FRES 4th & 4 at WYO 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:02WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:04WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q4 2:00FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WYODrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 1 yds · 12:2949% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
51.3%
PENALTY WYO UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards from WYO42 to WYO27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 25
OWN 27
+25
51.4%
(14:55) #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #22 S.Scott caught at WYO34, for 15 yards to the WYO42 (#39 J.Pearson) PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO42 to WYO32Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
51.7%
(13:50) #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #22 S.Scott caught at WYO34, for 15 yards to the WYO42 (#39 J.Pearson) PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO27 to WYO17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+9
51.8%
(13:27) #5 T.Kellman rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WYO26 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
51.8%
(13:27) Shotgun #7 M.Drube rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WYO28 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
51.9%
(13:27) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #26 S.Harris thrown to WYO26Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
52.0%
(13:22) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 54 yards to the FST18Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
54.3%
PENALTY WYO UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards from WYO35 to WYO20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
53.4%
PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from FST48 to WYO42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
54.4%
(03:59) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #22 S.Scott caught at WYO37, for 5 yards to the WYO42, out of bounds at WYO42Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 18
OWN 29
-1
54.9%
(02:34) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WYO28 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1351% → 54%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
51.4%
(14:50) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST31 (#3 A.Johnson)Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+10
51.6%
(14:23) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FST34, for 10 yards to the FST41 (#3 A.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
51.8%
(13:44) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST43 (#12 D.Hearns)Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
52.0%
(12:55) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 9 yards gain to the WYO48 (#23 J.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.4%
(12:21) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to WYO35Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
52.3%
(12:16) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WYO42 (#23 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
52.6%
(11:40) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO41 (#42 E.Stuhlsatz)Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+8
52.6%
(10:56) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush left for 8 yards gain to the WYO33 (#23 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
53.3%
(10:16) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 21 yards gain to the WYO12 (#23 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
53.5%
(09:58) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 12 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2352% → 52%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
51.8%
(13:15) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 1 yard loss to the FST17 (#12 D.Hearns)Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
51.8%
(13:15) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush left for 0 yards to the FST17 (#20 D.Miller)Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+12
51.7%
(13:15) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at FST24, for 12 yards to the FST29 (#6 E.Eller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
51.9%
(13:15) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FST26 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+1
51.8%
(13:15) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST27 (#9 B.Johnson)Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
51.7%
(13:15) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST33Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
51.7%
(12:52) #41 N.Verdugo punt 40 yards to the WYO33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4747% → 47%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.3%
(09:28) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WYO33 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
53.2%
(08:54) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO34 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
53.2%
(08:24) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WYO36 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
53.3%
(07:55) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete deep middle to #13 C.Durr caught at FST28, for 40 yards to the FST24 (#18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.2%
(07:25) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Durr thrown to FST27 broken up by #5 S.HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
52.4%
(07:21) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST23 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
52.8%
(06:44) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #2 E.Richardson thrown to FST13Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
53.5%
(06:39) #47 E.Sandvik field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #43 G.Helm, LS: #52 C.York), clock 06:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0154% → 54%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
54.0%
(06:31) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 4 yards gain to the FST15 (#5 B.Wilson)Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
54.2%
(05:53) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FST17, for 3 yards to the FST18 (#23 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 18
-11
54.0%
(05:04) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin sacked for loss of 11 yards to the FST07 (#11 E.Bogar)Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 14
OWN 7
+3
53.6%
(04:24) #41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the WYO49 #19 C.Coenen return 6 yards to the FST45, out of bounds at FST45 PENALTY WYO Holding WYO UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 25 yards from FST48 to WYO27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0544% → 42%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
56.2%
(12:27) Shotgun #2 E.Richardson rush middle for 4 yards loss to the WYO29 (#9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
57.1%
(12:27) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #2 E.Richardson thrown to WYO38Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
57.6%
(12:27) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to #5 T.Kellman thrown to WYO25Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
58.2%
(12:22) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 46 yards to the FST25 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5257% → 55%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
56.5%
(12:15) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FST22 fumbled by #17 C.Conklin at FST22 recovered by FST #17 C.Conklin at FST22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.4%
(11:59) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST36Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
56.4%
(11:30) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST26Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
55.7%
(11:27) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #84 E.Avit thrown to FST36Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
55.2%
(11:23) #41 N.Verdugo punt 40 yards to the WYO38 fair catch by #19 C.Coenen at WYO38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
56.0%
(11:15) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WYO42 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
55.5%
(11:15) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #84 J.Gyllenborg thrown to WYO28Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
56.0%
(11:15) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Sargent thrown to WYO40Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
57.2%
(11:15) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 32 yards to the FST26, out of bounds at FST26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4658% → 62%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
57.9%
(11:11) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 14 yards gain to the FST40 (#23 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.2%
(10:46) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST44 (#42 E.Stuhlsatz)Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
59.9%
(10:03) #5 J.Freeman rush right for 8 yards gain to the WYO48 (#23 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.4%
(09:24) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WYO45 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
60.7%
(08:42) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO44 (#9 B.Johnson)Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
61.2%
(08:20) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WYO39 (#9 B.Johnson)Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-2
61.6%
(07:19) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WYO41 (#94 B.Florentine), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:3339% → 35%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
60.6%
(07:14) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WYO50 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 1
50
+10
59.2%
(06:39) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush right for 2 yards gain to the FST48 (#39 J.Pearson) PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO50 to WYO40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
61.7%
(06:15) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush left for 5 yards gain to the WYO45 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
61.3%
(05:40) #26 S.Harris rush left for 10 yards gain to the FST45 (#11 J.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
60.2%
(05:02) Shotgun #7 M.Drube rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST44 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
61.0%
(04:27) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete deep middle to #3 D.DeBlanc thrown to FST02Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-14
61.9%
(04:13) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson sacked for loss of 14 yards to the WYO42 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
65.5%
(03:36) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 27 yards to the FST31, out of bounds at FST31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5362% → 61%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.0%
(03:32) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 0 yards to the FST31 (#4 J.Taylor)Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
62.5%
(02:51) #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to FST44 broken up by #12 D.HearnsSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
61.7%
(02:44) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #1 J.McClain thrown to FST39Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
60.9%
(02:44) #41 N.Verdugo punt 37 yards to the WYO32 fair catch by #32 J.Davis at WYO32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:4435% → 31%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.8%
(02:31) Shotgun #3 D.DeBlanc rush left for 2 yards gain to the WYO33 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
65.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 D.DeBlanc rush left for 1 yard gain to the WYO33 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-1
66.1%
(01:55) Shotgun #22 S.Scott rush left for 1 yard loss to the WYO32 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
68.2%
(01:55) Shotgun #7 M.Drube pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Durr thrown to WYO27Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
68.7%
(01:45) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 48 yards to the FST20 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FST20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:1469% → 76%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.2%
(01:43) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Donelson thrown to FST35 broken up by #11 E.BogarSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
69.2%
(01:38) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #6 B.Donelson caught at FST11, for 0 yards to the FST20 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+24
68.7%
(01:18) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 24 yards gain to the FST44 (#23 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
71.6%
(01:08) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at FST48, for 4 yards to the FST48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+17
71.8%
(01:02) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at WYO37, for 17 yards to the WYO35 (#12 D.Hearns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.7%
(00:52) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep middle to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to WYO11Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-40
72.6%
(00:48) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to WYO25 broken up by #94 B.Florentine, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO35 to WYO25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.0%
(00:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to WYO00Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
73.0%
(00:34) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at WYO28, for 3 yards to the WYO22 (#9 B.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
72.1%
(00:35) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.McClain thrown to WYO09Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
76.2%
(00:31) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 00:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.5%
(00:26) Kneel down by #12 K.Anderson at WYO24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:1434% → 30%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
66.4%
PENALTY WYO False Start 5 yards from WYO17 to WYO12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+1
66.6%
(14:50) Shotgun #5 T.Kellman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO13 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+13
67.0%
(14:25) #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #84 J.Gyllenborg caught at WYO14, for 13 yards to the WYO26 (#44 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
67.1%
(13:33) Shotgun #22 S.Scott rush middle for 0 yards to the WYO26 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+1
68.6%
(12:56) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO27 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.3%
(12:16) Shotgun #5 T.Kellman rush middle for 0 yards to the WYO27 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
68.1%
(11:34) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #84 J.Gyllenborg caught at WYO32, for 5 yards to the WYO32 (#22 C.Bracha), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
68.2%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #2 E.Richardson thrown to WYO40Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+12
69.7%
(10:52) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 44 yards to the FST24 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 12 yards to the FST36 (#80 C.Brook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 8:0471% → 80%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
70.5%
(10:36) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST38 (#94 B.Florentine)Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-3
73.0%
(09:56) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FST35 (#5 B.Wilson; #99 K.Anderson)Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+14
70.8%
(09:18) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #84 E.Avit caught at FST49, for 14 yards to the FST49 (#3 A.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
74.5%
(08:47) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST50 (#9 B.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 9
50
+6
76.1%
(08:11) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #33 E.Gilliam caught at WYO49, for 6 yards to the WYO44 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
75.8%
(07:25) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WYO40 (#9 B.Johnson; #52 C.Ifeanyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.0%
(06:46) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #84 E.Avit thrown to WYO15Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
76.8%
(06:43) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WYO37 (#21 E.Sibomana)Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+1
76.5%
(05:59) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush right for 1 yard gain to the WYO36 (#52 C.Ifeanyi)Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+10
75.4%
(05:17) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short middle to #87 J.Tarwater caught at WYO30, for 10 yards to the WYO26 (#3 A.Johnson; #40 T.Westland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
78.2%
(04:37) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush right for 1 yard loss to the WYO27 (#26 G.Rutherford)Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+27
78.4%
(03:56) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #84 E.Avit thrown to WYO01, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WYO Pass Interference (#8 T.Boss) 14 yards from WYO27 to WYO13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
78.7%
(03:40) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WYO11 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
78.9%
(03:11) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 2 yards gain to the WYO09 (#6 E.Eller), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
79.2%
(02:31) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to WYO00Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
80.4%
(02:30) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 27 yards NO GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 02:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4320% → 17%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
79.8%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube rush left for 2 yards loss to the WYO18 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
80.5%
(01:46) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Sargent thrown to WYO24 broken up by #3 A.HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
81.5%
(01:43) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Sargent thrown to WYO30Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+16
82.7%
(01:41) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 36 yards to the FST46 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 16 yards to the WYO38 (#2 E.Richardson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1483% → 83%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
83.3%
(01:24) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WYO34 (#98 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
84.3%
(00:51) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WYO31 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
84.1%
(00:11) #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #19 H.Duvall thrown to WYO01 broken up by #7 M.GrantSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+5
82.9%
PENALTY FST Delay Of Game 5 yards from WYO31 to WYO36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
82.7%
(00:00) #41 N.Verdugo punt 25 yards to the WYO11 fair catch by #19 C.Coenen at WYO11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19INT
4 plays · -44 yds · 1:3717% → 20%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
83.3%
(14:55) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WYO18 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+29
83.3%
(14:31) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush left for 29 yards gain to the WYO47 (#17 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
81.0%
(13:49) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush left for 8 yards gain to the FST45 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+30
79.7%
(13:15) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass intercepted by #3 A.Hamilton at FST12 #3 A.Hamilton return 15 yards to the FST27, out of bounds at FST27 PENALTY WYO Face Mask 15 yards from FST27 to FST42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
93.4%
(13:05) #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 58 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:179% → 8%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
90.6%
(12:50) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #84 J.Gyllenborg caught at WYO13, for 5 yards to the WYO13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+12
90.3%
(12:30) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 12 yards gain to the WYO25 (#2 A.Cobb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.5%
(12:00) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #84 J.Gyllenborg caught at WYO29, for 4 yards to the WYO29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
89.8%
(11:39) Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WYO35 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.2%
(10:57) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete deep left to #2 E.Richardson thrown to FST26Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
90.2%
(10:52) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Holman thrown to WYO49Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
91.0%
(10:44) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Kellman thrown to WYO29Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
91.8%
(10:38) #18 B.Edmiston, Jr. punt 38 yards to the FST27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:4095% → 97%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.9%
(10:29) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FST35 (#23 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
95.5%
(09:52) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST39 (#9 B.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.8%
(09:10) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 1 yard gain to the FST40 (#6 E.Eller)Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+9
95.9%
(08:27) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 9 yards gain to the FST49 (#20 D.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.2%
(08:06) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 1 yard gain to the FST50 (#5 B.Wilson)Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 9
50
+2
96.3%
(07:26) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WYO48 (#5 B.Wilson; #9 B.Johnson)Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+3
96.8%
(06:44) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FST49, for 3 yards to the WYO45 (#3 A.Johnson)Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
96.8%
(05:44) #41 N.Verdugo punt 45 yards to the WYO00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:334% → 3%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.7%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to #26 S.Harris thrown to WYO23Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.8%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WYO27 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
95.6%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WYO31 (#0 K.Foreman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
95.8%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #13 C.Durr caught at WYO28, for 3 yards loss to the WYO28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-4
96.9%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WYO24 (#94 J.Gandy)Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 17
OWN 24
0
97.1%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Kellman rush left for 0 yards to the WYO24 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
97.3%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to #5 T.Kellman thrown to WYO26, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5298% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
98.2%
(02:58) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WYO14 (#9 B.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
98.2%
(02:11) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 2 yards loss to the WYO16, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+3
98.5%
(02:08) #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 3 yards gain to the WYO13 (#98 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Josiah Freeman 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube pass complete short left to #84 J.Gyllenborg caught at WYO30, for 9 yards to the WYO34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WYO40 (#2 A.Cobb), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube rush right for 1 yard loss to the WYO39 (#89 M.Hines)Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
99.8%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube pass complete short right to #11 M.Fitzgerald caught at WYO43, for 4 yards to the WYO43 (#7 L.Mouzon)Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Durr thrown to WYO45Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Drube pass incomplete short left to #85 C.Nanke thrown to FST47 broken up by #2 A.Cobb, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.8%
(01:04) Kneel down by #17 C.Conklin at WYO45 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
99.8%
(00:33) Kneel down by #17 C.Conklin at WYO46 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:58
(13:05) #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 58 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)
+13.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26
(00:26) Kneel down by #12 K.Anderson at WYO24 for loss of 1 yard
-6.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:52
Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:52
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com