Fresno State

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2187th
  Defense−0.0493rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.3%88th
  Defense35.5%96th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1319th
  Defense+1.2340th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1059th
  Defense−0.0688th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3387th
  Defense−0.0390th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.0%74th
  Defense40.5%93rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.6%94th
  Defense26.2%96th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8339th
  Defense2.8555th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.2%53rd
  Defense16.9%22nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.0%92nd
  Defense16.8%62nd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Fresno State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   IDHO
2. L
   MINN
3. W
   UCLA
4. W
   TOL
5. W
   NEV
6. W
   WYO
7. W
   UNM
8. W
   HAW
9. W
   UNLV
10. L
    BOIS
11. W
    SDSU
12. W
    SJSU
13. W
    BOIS
14. W
    ASU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Fresno State.

Players, 2018

1. Marcus McMaryionQB406 plays · +0.290 pts/play · 13th of 225 QBs
   2.21WAR1.60 to 2.86
2. Ronnie RiversRB132 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 81st of 351 RBs
   0.42WAR0.31 to 0.52
3. Jordan MimsRB95 plays · +0.164 pts/play · 147th of 351 RBs
   0.29WAR0.23 to 0.35
4. KeeSean JohnsonWR101 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 38th of 434 WRs
   0.21WAR0.07 to 0.36
5. Jared RiceTE58 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 6th of 204 TEs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.24
6. Josh HokitRB53 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 258th of 351 RBs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.16
7. Blake CusickP51 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 15th of 91 punters
   0.12WAR0.06 to 0.18
8. Jamire JordanWR44 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 185th of 434 WRs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Fresno State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  45945981st of 130Roster talent: 459, 81st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14314380th of 130Recruiting: 143, 80th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  85%85%17th of 129Returning production: 85%, 17th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +17.4+17.416th of 130SP+ rating: +17.4, 16th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Fresno State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BOISQ3 1:35 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.9 pts
2. vs ASUQ4 10:40 4th & 2 at FRES 40, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. at MINNQ2 6:03 4th & 2 at MINN 48, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at NEVQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at FRES 34, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. vs SDSUQ2 3:51 4th & 2 at FRES 42, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs SDSUQ2 2:02 4th & 4 at SDSU 49, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at UNLVQ2 6:24 4th & 3 at UNLV 47, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. vs TOLQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at TOL 27, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

22nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Fresno State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   IDHO
2. L

   MINN
3. W

   UCLA
4. W

   TOL
5. W

   NEV
6. W

   WYO
7. W

   UNM
8. W

   HAW
9. W

   UNLV
10. L

    BOIS
11. W

    SDSU
12. W

    SJSU
13. W

    BOIS
14. W

    ASU

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Fresno State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.73
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.14
• Timeouts+0.22
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.77

Game by game

• IDHOW 79-13 vs IDHO95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• MINNL 14-21 at MINN53% → 3%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −44, Possession & field position +1
• UCLAW 38-14 at UCLA57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +47, Clock +1
• TOLW 49-27 vs TOL78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26
• NEVW 21-3 at NEV85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• WYOW 27-3 vs WYO90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts −1
• UNMW 38-7 at UNM83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• HAWW 50-20 vs HAW96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• UNLVW 48-3 at UNLV95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• BOISL 17-24 at BOIS57% → 2%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −45
• SDSUW 23-14 vs SDSU78% → 97%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• SJSUW 31-13 vs SJSU97% → 99%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +7
• BOISW 19-16 at BOIS46% → 88%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +19
• ASUW 31-20 vs ASU64% → 97%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Fresno State's side.

Closest call

FRES 39-35 PUR (2023) - Fresno State dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.