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FRES

Fresno State 17 at Boise State 24

BOIS
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:18 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:42: Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +10.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:56: Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +23.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:22: Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 49 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +25.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25: Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 01:25 — BOIS win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39BOIS 4th & 13 at FRES 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:30FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:55BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05BOIS 4th & 3 at FRES 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:42FRES 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:36BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−2.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:56FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:09FRES 4th & 10 at BOIS 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:09BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−2.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:25FRES 4th & 11 at BOIS 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−1.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:12FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:42FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:56BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:57BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:22BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2143% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
42.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 41 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
42.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-5
42.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (CT Thomas) to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
42.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
42.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
43.5%
Haden Hoggarth 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:4257% → 56%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
43.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
43.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Jamire Jordan) to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
43.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Jared Rice) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
44.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+5
44.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 52 yds , Avery Williams returns for 5 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:0544% → 47%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
44.5%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, AJ, PENALTY FS holding (BRYANT, Jaron) 10 yards to the BSU38, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.5%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
44.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense (Kevin Atkins) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+15
44.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
44.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+6
45.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
45.0%
CT Thomas pass incomplete to Brett Rypien, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
45.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
44.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for no gain to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
46.9%
Haden Hoggarth 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
46.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-10
46.7%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush up middle for 12 yards to the FS34 (WEAVER, Curtis), PENALTY FS holding (HUGHES, Logan) 10 yards to the FS12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-10
46.8%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 4 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Christian Cronk , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 29
OWN 4
+15
47.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
47.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
48.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
48.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-3
48.6%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
48.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 26 yds, downed at the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:5152% → 57%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
48.2%
Derrion Grim run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+22
47.9%
Jordan Mims run for 22 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
47.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
46.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+38
47.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 38 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
46.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+9
46.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 9 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
46.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7DOWNS
16 plays · 62 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.6%
Brett Rypien run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
45.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
45.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
46.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 5 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
46.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
46.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
47.3%
Robert Mahone run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
46.4%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
47.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 9 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-1
47.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
46.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
47.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
47.3%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
46.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OPP 12
-1
45.7%
Haden Hoggarth run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3956% → 57%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
43.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
43.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 22 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
41.7%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
41.3%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
41.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+13
41.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
40.9%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
41.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+4
41.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
42.8%
Asa Fuller 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0044% → 49%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for no gain to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
43.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+10
43.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
44.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 25 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
47.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
48.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+33
48.6%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Juju Hughes return for 33 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:1459% → 69%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
41.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
40.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+16
39.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyson Maeva) to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
38.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+11
38.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 11 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
37.0%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Jabari Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 30 FRESNO ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Marcus McMaryion) to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+47
30.6%
Asa Fuller 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1866% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
34.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 26 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
31.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 24 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
31.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 19 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
31.4%
Derrion Grim run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
31.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:4023% → 38%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
22.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
24.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+8
25.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
24.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
25.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-10
24.6%
RYPIEN, Brett rush up middle for 4 yards to the FS35 (ALLISON, J.;JOHNSON, Isaiah), PENALTY BSU holding (QUEVEDO, Eric) 10 yards to the FS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+15
23.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 15 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
24.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
25.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
25.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
25.8%
Khalil Shakir run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
25.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
37.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
30.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
31.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Michiah Quick, broken up by Jabari WatsonSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
32.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1636% → 61%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
36.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
36.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
37.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
37.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
39.5%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
39.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
37.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
39.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
39.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+10
37.5%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
50.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 13 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
50.0%
Jordan Mims run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Michiah Quick, broken up by Kekoa NawahineSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-5
46.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Riddering) to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+1
48.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
51.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds, downed at the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:3155% → 85%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
54.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
54.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+10
53.6%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
55.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
59.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
59.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander Mattison, broken up by Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+49
84.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 49 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:0721% → 17%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
79.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
78.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 21 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
75.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+11
74.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
73.1%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
73.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
75.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
82.6%
Asa Fuller 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Avery Williams Tyler Horton return for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
88.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
88.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
88.2%
Brett Rypien run for no gain to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
87.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:4615% → 12%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Michiah Quick, broken up by Blake WhitlockSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
85.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 20 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
83.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
80.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 13 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
78.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (Logan Hughes) to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 18
OPP 43
0
81.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+15
82.5%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete, PENALTY BSU pass interference (HORTON, Tyler) 15 yards to the BSU28, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
77.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
78.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-6
79.9%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Tyson Maeva and Tony Lashley for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 11
OPP 29
0
88.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Avery WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0096% → 98%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
95.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
96.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
96.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:22
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 49 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q4 14:57
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+23.1
TD · Q3 5:56
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com