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SJSU

San José State 13 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:30: Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:32: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 31 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:47: Michael Carrillo pass complete to Malike Roberson for 73 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:59: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 18 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:08: Michael Carrillo pass intercepted for a TD Arron Mosby return for 95 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:48FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:57FRES 4th & 21 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:00SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:09FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:20SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:50FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:23SJSU 4th & 12 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:10FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:37SJSU 4th & 1 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:03FRES 4th & 10 at SJSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00SJSU 4th & 9 at FRES 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:47FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:52SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:24SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:52SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 5:30FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:32FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:47SJSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:59FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:08FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:24SJSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1297% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
96.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
96.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
96.4%
Asa Fuller 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
96.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Michael Carrillo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Michael Carrillo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
96.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+33
96.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 33 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
96.3%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for 1 yard to the SJSU38 (SCOTT, Jamal;DARDEN, Hadari), PENALTY FS holding (CRUZ, Alex) 10 yards to the SJSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 20
OPP 49
-1
96.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 21
50
0
96.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 21
50
0
96.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.9%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
95.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Josh Oliver for 13 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.8%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 11 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
95.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
95.8%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Hartley for 6 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
95.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds, downed at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
95.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+8
95.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
94.8%
Michael Carrillo sacked by Patrick Belony for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
94.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
94.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds, downed at the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
94.5%
Jordan Mims run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
94.6%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
94.7%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
94.7%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-9
94.7%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to TUITELE, Syrus, PENALTY FS intentional grounding (MCMARYION, M.) 9 yards to the FS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+30
94.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 30 yds Jared Rice fumbled, forced by Bobby Brown II, recovered by SJSt Tre WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:506% → 7%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
93.7%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
93.7%
Cha Lachapelle run for 2 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+5
93.9%
Cha Lachapelle pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+7
93.4%
Bryce Crawford punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 34 , Ronnie Rivers returns for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
93.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-2
93.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
93.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.5%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tyler NevensSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
92.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+30
92.5%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 30 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.0%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
92.0%
Michael Carrillo sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
92.3%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
92.7%
Brian Papazian punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
92.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
91.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
91.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:479% → 10%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.8%
Cha Lachapelle run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-1
90.6%
Cha Lachapelle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+19
90.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
89.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
89.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
89.9%
CARRILLO, Micha pass complete to COTTRELL, Thai for 13 yards to the FS26 (KELLY, Anthoula), PENALTY SJSU holding (COLMAN, Jake) 10 yards to the FS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+5
90.3%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Austin Liles for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-4
90.3%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+18
90.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 18 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-1
90.3%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Hartley for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:0490% → 89%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
89.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
89.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+11
90.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.4%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+18
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 18 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
90.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 2 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+8
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
90.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-4
88.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
88.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
88.5%
Asa Fuller 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
87.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 11 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
87.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+13
86.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
86.7%
Michael Carrillo run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Thai CottrellSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
86.9%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
88.1%
Brian Papazian punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
86.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+1
86.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+24
86.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 24 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
87.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
87.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
86.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds, downed at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
85.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
85.1%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Hartley for 5 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
85.3%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 2
OWN 23
-3
86.2%
Bryce Crawford punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:4985% → 93%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
85.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
85.3%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+17
86.0%
Jordan Mims run for 17 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
87.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 45 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
91.5%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+18
91.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 18 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
90.7%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Malike Roberson for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
90.9%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
91.2%
Michael Carrillo sacked by Kwami Jones and Isaiah Johnson for 0 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
91.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1192% → 97%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
91.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
91.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+37
91.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 37 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
97.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 31 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:454% → 8%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
96.1%
PENALTY FS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY SJSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Cha Lachapelle run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
92.1%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Malike Roberson for 73 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3991% → 98%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
91.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 30 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+22
92.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 22 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+5
91.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the SJSt 18 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
92.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+18
97.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 18 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.2%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
97.2%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-5
97.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Jaime Navarro) to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+12
97.3%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Hartley for 12 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
97.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 1 yd to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-2
97.1%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Bryce Crawford punt for 61 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+37
97.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 37 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
97.7%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
97.8%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
97.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for no gain to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Jesse Osuna) to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
97.8%
Josh Hokit run for 16 yds to the SJSt 25 Josh Hokit fumbled, forced by Jesse Osuna, recovered by SJSt Jesse OsunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25INT TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:212% → 1%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Michael Carrillo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.8%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
97.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Josh Oliver for 29 yds to the FRESNOST 34 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Keiti Iakopo) to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
97.1%
CARRILLO, Micha pass intercepted by HUGHES, Juju at the FS6, HUGHES, Juju return to the FS6 (WALKER, Tre), PENALTY FS holding (KELLY, Anthoula) 10 yards to the FS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+95
99.4%
Michael Carrillo pass intercepted for a TD Arron Mosby return for 95 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:341% → 2%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
DeJon Packer run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-5
99.4%
TEAM rush for no gain to the FS39, fumble by TEAM recovered by SJSU TEAM at FS39, PENALTY SJSU false start 5 yards to the FS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
99.5%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+14
99.5%
CARRILLO, Micha pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY FS pass interference (KELLY, Anthoula) 14 yards to the FS25, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.4%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Hartley for 10 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
99.4%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Michael Harris III for 11 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.1%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 4 yds for a TD Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 01:24 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.1%
JaQuan Blackwell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:30
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q3 0:32
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 31 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q4 11:59
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 18 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com