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FRES

Fresno State 37 at UNLV 30

UNLV
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 6 yds to the FrsSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 0:13: Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 17 yds — UNLV win probability +22.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:16: J. Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (D. Lynch KICK), (D. Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +23.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:15: J. Haener pass,to Z. Pope for 2 yds for a TD, (D. Lynch KICK), (D. Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +21.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:48: Daniel Gutierrez 38 Yd Field Goal — UNLV win probability +16.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:28: Aidan Robbins 66 Yd Run (Kyle Williams Pass to Nick Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — UNLV win probability +34.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:29UNLV 4th & 7 at FRES 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00UNLV 4th & 1 at FRES 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.2%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:39UNLV 4th & 5 at FRES 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:17UNLV 4th & 9 at FRES 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:49FRES 4th & 7 at UNLV 8, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:00FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−2.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−17.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:05UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−2.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:48UNLV 4th & 11 at FRES 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−10.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:57FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 6, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%−6.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−20.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:28UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.1%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:07UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.7%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:56FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 11, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−2.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:29FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:12UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:16FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:15FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:28UNLV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FG
21 plays · 51 yds · 11:2926% → 34%
Q1 11:29
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
25.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
34.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
34.1%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Carlton JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
33.6%
pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 9:4574% → 71%
Q1 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
26.3%
Jake Haener pass intercepted UNLV Penalty, illegal block (Jordan Mims) to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
26.3%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
26.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
26.1%
pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+33
25.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 33 yds for a TD, (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
27.8%
Jake Haener sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+15
28.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 15 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:1233% → 34%
Q1 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.7%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by LJ EarlySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
32.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
32.4%
Doug Brumfield run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
33.8%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
33.8%
Courtney Reese run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.1%
pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
34.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
33.5%
Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
32.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
34.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+12
34.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 15:0068% → 58%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
31.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
32.2%
Jared Torres run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
31.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
32.2%
Jake Boust run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-3
34.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for a loss of 3 yards Jake Haener fumbled, recovered by UNLV Jerrae WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
42.1%
Jake Boust run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5FG
13 plays · 15 yds · 15:0034% → 53%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
33.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
33.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
33.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
34.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
34.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-1
33.6%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
41.0%
Daniel Gutierrez 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
53.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
53.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
52.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
54.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
54.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-1
53.1%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 6:1671% → 70%
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.5%
J. Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (D. Lynch KICK), (D. Lynch KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
34.4%
pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
34.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
35.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
33.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+21
32.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 21 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
31.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 20 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
30.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
30.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 1:0641% → 46%
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
40.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
40.5%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.2%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Cale Sanders Jr.Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
44.0%
D. Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
45.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
44.6%
Doug Brumfield run for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+11
46.0%
Doug Brumfield run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
46.0%
Doug Brumfield run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+13
45.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Courtney Reese for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
47.7%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+7
47.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+15
46.2%
pass incomplete to Jeff Weimer FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Morice Norris) to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 9:4963% → 64%
Q3 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
36.8%
Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
39.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 41 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
34.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
34.0%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
35.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.0%
pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
34.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
35.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for 3 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+4
38.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
33.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jake Boust for 3 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
33.9%
pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
35.7%
pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-CropperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 8:0537% → 39%
Q3 8:05
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+16
37.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 16 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.8%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Daviyon McDaniel) to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
41.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-11
41.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams UNLV Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Shelton Zeon III) to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
41.1%
pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+9
39.3%
Doug Brumfield run for 9 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:1582% → 84%
Q3 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.9%
J. Haener pass,to Z. Pope for 2 yds for a TD, (D. Lynch KICK), (D. Lynch KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
17.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+12
17.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
16.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-5
16.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (Charlotin Charles) to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+3
16.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
17.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
19.1%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
16.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
16.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 9 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
16.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Charlotin Charles) to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
16.4%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:4832% → 35%
Q3 0:48
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
32.4%
Daniel Gutierrez 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
31.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 14 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
32.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+41
32.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 41 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
37.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
37.4%
pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
35.0%
pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0375% → 84%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
25.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (Charlotin Charles) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+3
27.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
26.3%
pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference (BJ Harris) to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
24.4%
pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ricky Johnson) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
23.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
23.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
24.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
22.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
22.4%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
22.7%
Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
16.0%
Dylan Lynch 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 9:2850% → 15%
Q4 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
50.4%
Aidan Robbins 66 Yd Run (Kyle Williams Pass to Nick Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.1%
Kyle Williams pass complete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.0%
Kyle Williams pass complete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.0%
Kyle Williams pass complete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.7%
Kyle Williams pass complete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
14.3%
Doug Brumfield run for 8 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
15.4%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Nick Williams, broken up by Levelle BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 8:4778% → 93%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
21.9%
Jalen Moreno-Cropper 65 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
7.2%
pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
7.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 14 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15DOWNS
3 plays · 8 yds · 7:0726% → 13%
Q4 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
26.4%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
13.1%
pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5689% → 94%
Q4 2:56
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+29
11.1%
Dylan Lynch 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
5.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
5.9%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
6.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
5.9%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
5.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
6.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Merhauti Xepera for 7 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 0:2325% → 25%
Q4 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-8
24.5%
Doug Brumfield sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+33
17.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan RobbinsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
11.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 18 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.3%
pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
14.5%
pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
13.6%
Doug Brumfield run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Cam Lockridge) to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
18.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+13
21.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 13 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
24.6%
pass incomplete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
21.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 9 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
21.8%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
24.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 6 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:28
Aidan Robbins 66 Yd Run (Kyle Williams Pass to Nick Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+34.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.6
TD · Q2 6:16
J. Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (D. Lynch KICK), (D. Lynch KICK)
-23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com