Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 14 at Minnesota 21

MINN
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:26 · Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, downed at the Minn 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialPregame priorBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+9.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+3.1Pregame prior−1.2Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:20: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +20.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q4 9:43: Emmit Carpenter 50 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +10.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:20: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 45 yds for a TD MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +29.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:28: Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Green pass to Ko Kieft for Two-Point Conversion) — MINN win probability +37.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 18 — MINN win probability +14.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48FRES 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05MINN 4th & 9 at FRES 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:03FRES 4th & 2 at MINN 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 25, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26FRES 4th & 15 at MINN 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:43MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:51MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:50FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−6.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−5.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:43MINN 4th & 5 at FRES 32, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:34FRES 4th & 3 at MINN 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−3.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:46MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:20FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:20FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−2.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:28MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.3%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
47.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
47.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+11
47.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rodney Smith for 11 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
47.4%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
47.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
47.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 34 yds, downed at the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
47.8%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
47.7%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+8
47.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Michiah Quick for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
47.6%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 9 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
47.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-2
47.6%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 3
50
0
47.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 7:1749% → 56%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.5%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
48.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
48.6%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
48.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+9
48.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
49.0%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
49.1%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Phillip Howard for 7 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
49.1%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
49.2%
Seth Green run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
49.2%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
49.2%
Annexstad, Zack pass complete to Johnson, Tyler for no gain to the FS10 (ALLISON, J.), PENALTY FS holding (WRIGHT, Andrew) 5 yards to the FS5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
49.2%
Seth Green run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
49.0%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.2%
Seth Green run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.9%
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
54.3%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
53.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Terell Smith return for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
56.0%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
55.9%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
55.5%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
54.5%
Jacob Herbers punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:4145% → 45%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
55.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
55.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+11
55.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Michiah Quick for 11 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.6%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
54.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+7
54.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
53.7%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea (Huff, Jacob), PENALTY FS pass interference (JORDAN, Jamire) 15 yards to the FS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+9
55.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
55.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+7
55.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
55.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds, downed at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
57.1%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+14
57.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 14 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.8%
Bryce Williams run for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
57.4%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete, PENALTY MINN holding (Schlueter, Sam) 10 yards to the MINN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 20
OWN 16
0
57.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+4
56.6%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
56.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3742% → 41%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
58.2%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
58.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34 Dejonte O'Neal fumbled, forced by Antonio Shenault,Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
58.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
57.1%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
56.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
57.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:2562% → 69%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
61.6%
Jonathan Femi-Cole run for 3 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+2
61.3%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+18
61.0%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 18 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
62.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 25 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
64.4%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
69.4%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
69.4%
Jonathan Femi-Cole run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
68.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Jonathan Femi-ColeSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 35
+53
69.4%
Emmit Carpenter 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
69.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-1
69.0%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
68.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+13
68.1%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
67.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-2
66.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
67.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
69.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antoine Winfield Jr. at the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
71.7%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
71.5%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+8
70.3%
Jonathan Femi-Cole run for 8 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 33 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
70.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 21 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
69.4%
Chris Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-2
70.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
72.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, downed at the Minn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
73.6%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
73.6%
Seth Green run for 1 yd to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
72.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
71.9%
Jacob Herbers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Justin Allen for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
73.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
72.2%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-5
73.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
74.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Antoine Winfield Jr. at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
76.5%
Zack Annexstad run for 5 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
76.6%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-6
75.8%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Jasad Haynes and George Helmuth for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
74.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
76.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
76.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Jacob HuffSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
77.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
78.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 60 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
78.2%
Bryce Williams run for 10 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
78.5%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
78.5%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
77.5%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for no gain Tyler Johnson fumbled, forced by Anthoula Kelly, recovered by FrsSt Patrick BelonySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:1326% → 45%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
74.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 5 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
74.2%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the Minn 11Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+10
75.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 10 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:3763% → 82%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
62.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
64.1%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
66.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
67.0%
Zack Annexstad run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
66.3%
Seth Green run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
64.1%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
71.8%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
72.7%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-2
71.0%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
82.0%
Emmit Carpenter 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2328% → 63%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Terell SmithSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
70.9%
Jordan Mims run for 22 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
37.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 45 yds for a TD MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:5248% → 93%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
47.5%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
46.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 17 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
52.2%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
52.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Phillip Howard for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+13
47.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
54.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
55.9%
Bryce Williams run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
55.9%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
55.9%
Bryce Williams run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
55.9%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.0%
Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Green pass to Ko Kieft for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23INT
15 plays · 71 yds · 2:0414% → 17%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
84.3%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Coughlin, C) 15 yards to the FS44, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
82.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Justin Allen for 7 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
80.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
81.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 25 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
77.5%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+9
82.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+1
82.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+6
86.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Justin Allen for 6 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.8%
Josh Hokit pass intercepted, touchback. Antoine Winfield Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:28
Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Green pass to Ko Kieft for Two-Point Conversion)
+37.1
TD · Q4 8:20
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 45 yds for a TD MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)
-29.2
TD · Q3 0:20
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
-20.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com