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GASO

Georgia Southern 14 at Fresno State 42

FRES
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4FRES 48.1%Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 13 · Q2 0:00
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Q2 0:00 · Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:17: JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +4.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:33: JC French IV pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +4.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds for a TD (J. Freeman Run For Two-point Conversion) — FRES win probability +20.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:50: Rayshon Luke run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +11.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:02: Brandon Ramirez run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:25FRES 4th & 4 at GASO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:35FRES 4th & 10 at GASO 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:50GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 9, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00FRES 4th & 2 at GASO 8, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−1.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−10.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:00GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:37GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:48GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:24GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:41GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:52FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:17GASO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:33GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:36FRES Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:50FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:02FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:21FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 7:1848% → 50%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Ezekiel AvitSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
47.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 17 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
48.1%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+13
48.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 13 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.5%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the GASO 39Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
48.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 6 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
48.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for no gain to the GASO 33Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+4
48.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 4 yds to the GASO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
49.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 11 yds to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
49.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the GASO 10Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+8
49.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 8 yds to the GASO 18Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
49.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kamron BeachemSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
50.0%
Dylan Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4650% → 49%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
50.2%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,OJ rush left for 10 yards gain to the GAS35 (Bracha,Camryn) PENALTY GAS Holding 10 yards from GAS25 to GAS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
50.3%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
50.5%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the GASO 22Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
51.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Josh Dallas for 7 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+54
51.5%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 54 yds to the GASO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4252% → 55%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
51.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the GASO 17Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
52.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson DonelsonSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
55.0%
Rayshon Luke run for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2347% → 50%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
53.5%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 17 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
53.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 7 yds to the GASO 35Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+6
54.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 6 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+18
55.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 18 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
53.9%
JC French IV run for 9 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+11
53.8%
OJ Arnold run for 11 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
54.0%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
49.7%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:4952% → 52%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson DonelsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 10 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.9%
E.J. Warner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:2749% → 55%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.0%
OJ Arnold run for 5 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
50.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Josh Dallas for 11 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
50.4%
Josh Dallas run for no gain to the FRES 17Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
50.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Josh Dallas for 4 yds to the FRES 13Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+6
51.1%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
51.0%
Weston Bryan run for 3 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
50.3%
JC French IV pass incomplete to River HelmsSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.4%
JC French IV pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:2747% → 51%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+46
47.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 31 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayden Davis) to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
50.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 21 yds to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
50.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 9 yds to the GASO 9Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+8
50.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 8 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, Defensive Holding (Davion Rhodes) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
50.6%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 3 Bryson Donelson fumbled, recovered by GASO Davion RhodesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4853% → 52%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
47.4%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the GASO 3Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
47.7%
JC French IV run for no gain to the GASO 3Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+6
48.3%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the GASO 9Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
47.9%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2149% → 49%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
50
+1
48.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the GASO 49Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
48.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 11 yds to the GASO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.1%
E.J. Warner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0954% → 56%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
46.2%
David Mbadinga run for 4 yds to the GASO 7Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
46.5%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the GASO 11Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+5
46.9%
Josh Dallas run for 5 yds to the GASO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
45.6%
JC French IV pass incomplete to David MbadingaSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+17
46.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Josh Dallas for 17 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.4%
JC French IV pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:5749% → 48%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
48.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 48Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
48.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 8 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
48.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
48.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+25
47.0%
E.J. Warner run for 25 yds to the GASO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
48.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the GASO 14Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
48.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 2 yds to the GASO 12Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+4
47.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 4 yds to the GASO 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
48.1%
Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4652% → 51%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
47.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 12 yds to the GASO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
46.8%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
46.1%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
47.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Josh DallasSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
49.3%
Alex Smith punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:5053% → 74%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
52.6%
E.J. Warner run for 3 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+13
53.0%
Rayshon Luke run for 13 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
53.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
55.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 8 yds to the GASO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
55.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the GASO 20Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
55.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the GASO 18Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+10
53.7%
Brandon Ramirez run for 10 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
74.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds for a TD (J. Freeman Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4232% → 29%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
68.3%
JC French IV pass complete to David Mbadinga for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 12Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+5
68.8%
JC French IV pass complete to Taylor Bradshaw for 5 yds to the GASO 17Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+1
70.0%
JC French IV run for 1 yd to the GASO 18Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
71.4%
Alex Smith punt for 38 yds , K'Vion Thunderbird returns for no gain to the FRES 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:4076% → 91%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
75.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
76.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 2 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
75.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for 3 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
76.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 11 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
77.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 9 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
78.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
79.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 7 yds to the GASO 12Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
91.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5014% → 11%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
86.5%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Mbadinga,David rush middle for 16 yards gain to the GAS43 (Davis,Jayden) PENALTY GAS Holding 10 yards from GAS27 to GAS17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+8
87.2%
David Mbadinga run for 8 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+20
87.7%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 20 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.3%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
87.6%
Dalen Cobb run for no gain to the GASO 45Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
88.1%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
89.3%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 4:3892% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
91.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 20 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
92.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
92.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 11 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
93.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 15 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
93.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Malau'ulu for 18 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the GASO 23Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+20
94.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 20 yds to the GASO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.6%
Brandon Ramirez run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
JC French IV run for 5 yds to the GASO 30Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Ahmon GreenSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.6%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5599% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+32
99.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Brandon Ramirez for 32 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
99.3%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 29 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
PENALTY GAS Personal Foul 15 yards from FRES35 to FRES50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
99.9%
PENALTY GAS Personal Foul (Mbadinga,David) 8 yards from GAS16 to GAS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+6
99.9%
David Mbadinga run for 6 yds to the GASO 14Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+14
99.9%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 14 yds to the GASO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
David Mbadinga run for 2 yds to the GASO 30Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
99.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to River HelmsSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
99.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Ahmon GreenSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Alex Smith punt for 48 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 44 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+25
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 25 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 6 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
100.0%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 1 yd to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
100.0%
C. Conklin takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:36
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds for a TD (J. Freeman Run For Two-point Conversion)
+20.3
TD · Q3 1:50
Rayshon Luke run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 11:33
JC French IV pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com