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M-OH

Miami (OH) 3 at Fresno State 18

FRES
2025 · Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl · Dec 27, 2025 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:52 · (06:52) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 06:52
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense+8.7Pregame prior+5.5Garbage-time factor+2.0Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:54: (07:54) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 07:54 — FRES win probability +3.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:37: (06:41) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA35 broken up by #22 C.Bracha — M-OH win probability +6.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:00: (04:59) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 05:00 — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Dylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal — FRES win probability +3.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:12: E.J. Warner pass to R. Anderson III for 2 yds, for a TD — FRES win probability +7.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:49FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09M-OH 4th & 10 at FRES 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:03M-OH 4th & 11 at FRES 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:54FRES 4th & 5 at M-OH 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−5.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:00FRES 4th & 5 at M-OH 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00FRES 4th & 1 at M-OH 7, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:10M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:52FRES 4th & 3 at M-OH 10, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%−0.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:32M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:31FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 27, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:35M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32M-OH 4th & 10 at FRES 28, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:33FRES 4th & 1 at M-OH 29, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−1.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:56FRES 4th & 2 at M-OH 19, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:05M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.6
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0365% → 65%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.2%
(14:57) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU26 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
65.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU30, for 6 yards to the FSU32 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
65.1%
(13:40) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FSU40, for 5 yards loss to the FSU27 (#16 C.McKinney) PENALTY FSU Illegal Touch-Pass (#88 R.Anderson III) 5 yards from FSU32 to FSU27Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
64.9%
(12:49) #41 N.Verdugo punt 33 yards to the MIA40 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2135% → 36%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.9%
(12:35) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to FSU30Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+32
64.9%
(12:00) Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush middle for 32 yards gain to the FSU28 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
64.5%
(11:35) Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FSU19 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
64.3%
(11:09) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU19 (#5 S.Harris; #99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
64.2%
(09:37) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU15 (#22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
64.0%
(09:14) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski sacked for loss of 1 yard to the FSU16 (#94 J.Gandy)Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+1
64.1%
(09:09) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush right for 1 yard gain to the FSU15 (#22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
64.3%
(09:09) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to FSU00Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
64.3%
(09:09) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #89 B.Boeing), clock 09:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4264% → 64%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.2%
(09:09) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU28 (#32 J.Schott)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
64.0%
(08:32) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FSU32 broken up by #24 M.YharbroughSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
63.7%
(08:28) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to FSU42Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
63.5%
(08:26) #41 N.Verdugo punt 37 yards to the MIA35 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.9%
(08:19) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass intercepted by #1 J.Embry at FSU18, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3164% → 62%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.9%
(08:10) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FSU25Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
63.8%
(08:02) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 4 yards gain to the FSU22 (#22 B.Jobe)Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
63.4%
(07:25) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #15 K.Beachem caught at FSU28, for 0 yards to the FSU22 PENALTY FSU Holding 10 yards from FSU22 to FSU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+21
63.3%
(07:11) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU28, for 21 yards to the FSU33 (#29 S.Walters; #17 K.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
63.7%
(06:34) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU35 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
63.2%
(05:55) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at FSU38, for 3 yards to the FSU38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-2
63.5%
(05:14) Shotgun #13 E.Warner sacked for loss of 2 yards to the FSU36 (#52 N.Washington)Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
62.4%
(04:42) #41 N.Verdugo punt 39 yards to the MIA25 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2437% → 38%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.3%
(04:30) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MIA37 (#37 R.Wilson; #5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
62.6%
(03:46) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA50, for 19 yards to the FSU44 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
61.9%
(03:09) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FSU38 (#9 M.Xepera; #22 C.Bracha)Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
61.2%
(02:27) Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush left for 0 yards to the FSU38 (#22 C.Bracha) PENALTY MIA Holding 10 yards from FSU38 to FSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+3
61.7%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 3 yards gain to the FSU45 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
61.5%
(01:11) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep left to #4 D.Colzie thrown to FSU05Similar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
62.5%
(01:03) #34 P.Stainton punt 38 yards to the FSU07 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
16 plays · 82 yds · 8:0062% → 64%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
61.8%
(00:57) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU11 (#97 W.Goodvine II; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
61.6%
(00:17) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #84 E.Avit caught at FSU14, for 3 yards to the FSU14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+3
59.9%
(11:55) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU12, for 3 yards to the FSU17 (#8 K.Beasley; #2 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
59.7%
(10:33) #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU20 (#2 D.Bell; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+25
59.6%
(08:39) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FSU34, for 25 yards to the FSU45 fumbled by #88 R.Anderson III at FSU45 forced by #1 E.Blakey recovered by FSU #84 E.Avit at FSU45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
61.7%
(08:39) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA47 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+7
62.4%
(08:39) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MIA40 (#22 B.Jobe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
62.3%
(08:39) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA32 (#29 S.Walters; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
63.1%
(08:39) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA26 (#3 M.McCain; #23 O.McWood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
63.1%
(08:39) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MIA27 (#29 S.Walters; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+11
63.0%
(08:39) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at MIA19, for 11 yards to the MIA16 (#29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
63.1%
(08:39) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA11 (#1 E.Blakey; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
62.9%
(08:18) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Donelson thrown to MIA12Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
60.8%
(08:04) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #31 B.Ramirez caught at MIA11, for 0 yards to the MIA11 (#29 S.Walters)Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
64.0%
(07:54) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 07:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2239% → 39%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.6%
(07:54) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA29 (#89 M.Hines)Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
60.0%
(07:17) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA32 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
59.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA35 broken up by #22 C.BrachaSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
60.7%
(06:25) Miami (OH) punt 0 yards to the MIA32 blocked by #17 E.Tierney recovered by FSU #0 J.Arceneaux at MIA10, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0666% → 66%
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
65.9%
(06:15) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 0 yards to the MIA10 (#29 S.Walters)Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
65.9%
(05:41) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to MIA00 broken up by #6 A.Walker Jr.Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
65.0%
(05:30) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIA05 (#24 M.Yharbrough; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
66.2%
(04:59) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 05:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3635% → 41%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.0%
(04:54) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at MIA23, for 4 yards to the MIA29 (#39 J.Pearson; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
64.3%
(04:14) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA23, for 10 yards to the MIA39 (#1 J.Embry; #20 R.Regan), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Personal Foul (#1 J.Embry) 15 yards from MIA39 to FSU46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
62.1%
(03:52) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU43 (#9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
62.2%
(03:26) Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FSU38 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
61.6%
(02:45) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FSU33 (#17 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
60.7%
(02:20) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the FSU31 (#39 J.Pearson) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU33 to FSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+3
59.5%
(01:33) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU25 (#22 C.Bracha; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
59.5%
(01:22) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU22 fumbled by #6 J.Brunson at FSU22 forced by #39 J.Pearson recovered by FSU #1 J.Embry at FSU22, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 1:0065% → 72%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.9%
(00:59) PENALTY FSU False Start (#88 R.Anderson III) 5 yards from FSU22 to FSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+47
64.8%
(01:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU25, for 47 yards to the MIA36 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
68.1%
(01:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #84 E.Avit caught at MIA31, for 20 yards to the MIA16 (#33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
68.8%
(01:00) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA12 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
69.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at MIA09, for 4 yards to the MIA08 (#1 E.Blakey; #24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
68.3%
(00:49) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA07 (#29 S.Walters; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
71.8%
Dylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3430% → 29%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
69.8%
(14:48) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA25 (#22 C.Bracha; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
69.7%
(14:12) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIA27 (#35 T.Khajavi), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+11
70.5%
(13:32) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #4 D.Colzie caught at MIA38, for 11 yards to the MIA38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.9%
(12:59) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA41 (#22 C.Bracha; #39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
68.2%
(12:30) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to FSU30Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
69.5%
(12:19) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep right to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to FSU30Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
71.1%
(12:14) #34 P.Stainton punt 59 yards to the FSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 5:1872% → 74%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
72.3%
PENALTY FSU False Start (#71 R.Fullwood) 5 yards from FSU20 to FSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
72.1%
(12:03) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU18 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
72.1%
(11:27) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU21 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+51
71.5%
(10:45) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU18, for 51 yards to the MIA28 (#8 K.Beasley; #6 A.Walker Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
75.8%
(09:58) #31 B.Ramirez rush left for 9 yards gain to the MIA19 (#29 S.Walters)Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
75.9%
(09:24) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA17 (#3 M.McCain; #52 N.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
76.1%
(08:47) #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA15 (#1 E.Blakey; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
76.3%
(08:04) #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA10 (#8 K.Beasley)Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
75.4%
(07:28) #33 E.Gilliam rush left for 0 yards to the MIA10 (#99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
73.9%
(06:52) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 06:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1629% → 27%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.0%
(06:48) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to MIA15 broken up by #5 S.HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.3%
(06:42) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #86 B.Shane caught at MIA23, for 4 yards to the MIA24 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
72.3%
(06:04) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA48 broken up by #3 A.Hamilton. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:04) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver for 24 yards to the MIA48 (#3 A.Hamilton), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
73.4%
(05:31) #34 P.Stainton punt 56 yards to the FSU20 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5174% → 72%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.8%
(05:26) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU23 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
74.1%
(04:53) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short middle to #84 E.Avit caught at FSU29, for 6 yards to the FSU29 (#17 K.Martin)Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
73.9%
(04:11) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FSU27 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #47 B.Rice)Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
72.3%
(03:33) #41 N.Verdugo punt 40 yards to the MIA33 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4430% → 27%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.3%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush left for 0 yards to the MIA33 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.9%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #30 J.Ringer thrown to MIA38Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
72.5%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to MIA40 broken up by #22 C.BrachaSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
73.2%
(02:35) #34 P.Stainton punt 37 yards to the FSU30 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FSU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:1977% → 93%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
76.7%
(02:31) #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right thrown to FSU25Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
76.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU33 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+7
77.2%
(01:40) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush left for 7 yards gain to the FSU40 (#3 M.McCain; #8 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
80.1%
(00:59) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Arceneaux thrown to MIA35Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #5 J.Freeman rush right for 9 yards gain to the FSU49 (#1 E.Blakey; #17 K.Martin)Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
79.7%
(00:10) #13 E.Warner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA48 (#23 O.McWood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
81.1%
(14:53) #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #19 H.Duvall caught at MIA31, for 17 yards to the MIA31, out of bounds at MIA31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
81.7%
(14:22) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA28 (#2 D.Bell; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+14
81.8%
(13:47) #13 E.Warner pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to MIA30 PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (#2 D.Bell) 14 yards from MIA28 to MIA14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
81.8%
(13:40) #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA06 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
83.3%
(12:58) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA05 (#3 M.McCain; #23 O.McWood)Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
82.4%
(12:24) #13 E.Warner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA03 (#52 N.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.3%
(11:44) #33 E.Gilliam rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA02 (#3 M.McCain; #29 S.Walters)Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
E.J. Warner pass to R. Anderson III for 2 yds, for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 38 yds · 2:3410% → 7%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.4%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA40 PENALTY MIA Holding (#70 J.Schorsch) 10 yards from MIA25 to MIA15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
90.5%
(11:03) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA17Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
90.5%
(10:56) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush right for 8 yards gain to the MIA23 (#35 T.Khajavi), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+24
92.0%
(10:17) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA38, for 24 yards to the MIA47 (#39 J.Pearson; #1 J.Embry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
90.4%
(10:05) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FSU43 (#22 C.Bracha; #39 J.Pearson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
90.4%
(09:33) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right thrown to FSU35 PENALTY FSU Roughing The Passer (#96 N.Yeh) 15 yards from FSU43 to FSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
89.3%
(09:32) PENALTY MIA False Start 5 yards from FSU28 to FSU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
89.8%
(09:33) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right thrown to FSU30Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+5
90.0%
(09:22) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush right for 5 yards gain to the FSU28 (#3 A.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
93.1%
(08:37) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to FSU25 QB hurried by #35 T.KhajaviSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 10
OPP 28
-9
93.5%
(08:32) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski sacked for loss of 9 yards to the FSU37 (#6 J.Jacks), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:2394% → 99%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
94.3%
(08:25) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FSU45 (#1 E.Blakey; #22 B.Jobe)Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+17
94.9%
(07:35) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush right for 17 yards gain to the MIA38 (#1 E.Blakey; #29 S.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.5%
(06:47) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA36 (#29 S.Walters; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
95.8%
(06:05) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA31 (#1 E.Blakey; #24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
96.0%
(05:23) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA29 (#1 E.Blakey; #11 B.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
96.0%
(04:37) #13 E.Warner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA27 (#22 B.Jobe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
97.0%
(03:54) #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MIA28 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+3
97.5%
(03:48) #33 E.Gilliam rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA25 (#29 S.Walters; #16 C.McKinney)Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+6
97.4%
(03:36) Shotgun #13 E.Warner rush right for 6 yards gain to the MIA19 (#22 B.Jobe)Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
99.1%
(02:56) #46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown), clock 02:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:411% → 1%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.1%
(02:46) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (#39 J.Pearson) 10 yards from MIA20 to MIA30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.1%
(02:37) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush left for 9 yards gain to the MIA39 (#5 S.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
99.0%
(02:15) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to MIA45 broken up by #22 C.BrachaSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
99.1%
(02:10) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to FSU30Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-3
99.1%
(02:04) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MIA36 (#54 S.Noa), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.3%
(01:59) #24 J.Gillick rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIA34 (#11 B.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+14
99.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 14 yards gain to the MIA20 (#11 B.Uihlein; #32 J.Schott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
99.4%
(01:18) Kneel down by #17 C.Conklin at MIA21 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
99.4%
(00:53) Kneel down by #17 C.Conklin at MIA22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-1
99.4%
(00:19) Kneel down by #17 C.Conklin at MIA23 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:12
E.J. Warner pass to R. Anderson III for 2 yds, for a TD
+7.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:37
(06:41) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA35 broken up by #22 C.Bracha
-6.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Dylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com