2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by FIFE, Logan at FST37 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:17: Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +2.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:37: Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the Wyom 19 — FRES win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:28: Jordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick) — FRES win probability +3.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11: Jake Haener pass incomplete — FRES win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:55: Jordan Mims 2 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick) — FRES win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 9:50WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 45, down 7Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:49FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q1 0:45WYO 4th & 12 at FRES 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q2 12:22FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it84.6%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q2 5:24WYO 4th & 7 at FRES 41, down 23Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.8%37% to convertField goal6.6%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call6.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:05FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 38, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q2 1:11WYO 4th & 10 at FRES 42, down 23Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.6%30% to convertField goal5.6%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call5.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:09FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 27, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q3 12:55WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, down 23Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:36FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 39, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 6:38WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 3:44FRES 4th & 1 at WYO 42, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%70% to convertField goal99.4%−0.230% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:08WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 42, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:45FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 36, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 8:18FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 18, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:27WYO 4th & 3 at FRES 8, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%47% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.190% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:59FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.6%97% to makeGo for two84.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:55FRES Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFRESDrive 1TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0187% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+17
87.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 17 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
87.2%
WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (Wyett Ekeler) to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
87.2%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for REMIGIO, Nikko thrown to the WYO4. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on WHITE, Isaac enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the WYO4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0913% → 13%
Q1 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
87.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 10 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 4 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
86.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 4 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 2:0187% → 86%
WYODrive 4PUNT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
FRESDrive 5TD9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5387% → 89%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
86.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+13
86.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 13 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3212% → 12%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 14 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
87.6%
PEASLEY, Andrew pass to the left incomplete intended for WIELAND, Wyatt thrown to the FST30. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Carlton enforced 15 yards to the FST46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 2:3889% → 88%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+9
88.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 9 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+6
88.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT3 plays · -16 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
FRESDrive 9TD6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0991% → 95%
Q2 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
91.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 5 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 3:046% → 6%
Q2 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+19
93.9%
Andrew Peasley run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Isaiah Johnson) to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1995% → 95%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 1:546% → 5%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 6 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
94.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 7 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
94.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 5 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
94.9%
PEASLEY, Andrew pass up the middle incomplete intended for GYLLENBORG, John Michael thrown to the WYO35. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on LANGLEY, Malachi enforced 15 yards to the FST42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0297% → 96%
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Carson King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:054% → 4%
Q3 12:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
95.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 49 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 10 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
96.4%
HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for REMIGIO, Nikko thrown to the FST35. PENALTY FST Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCHMIDT, Bula enforced 5 yards from the FST28 to the FST23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 3:1996% → 97%
Q3 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+13
96.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
96.5%
Jake Haener sacked by DeVonne Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+6
96.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:003% → 3%
FRESDrive 18TD2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4197% → 100%
WYODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q3 6:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:360% → 0%
FRESDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Oluwaseyi Omotosho for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Carson King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23INT6 plays · 37 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
99.8%
SWEN, Titus rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO39 (PAYNE, Leonard). PENALTY WYO Holding on WALSH, Jack enforced 10 yards from the WYO40 to the WYO30 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+17
99.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Colin O'Brien for 17 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+14
99.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Colin O'Brien for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
WYODrive 25DOWNS13 plays · 50 yds · 4:510% → 0%
FRESDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 28 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:28
Jordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)
+3.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:37
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 8 yds to the Wyom 19
+3
TD · Q3 7:55
Jordan Mims 2 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)
+2.3