2022 · Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:28 · Carson King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:52: Jordan Mims run for 4 yds for a TD (Andre Meono KICK) — FRES win probability +5.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:33: Jake Haener pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio — FRES win probability +2.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:40: Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:40: Colton Theaker kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — FRES win probability +3.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:36: Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds for a TD (Andre Meono PAT MISSED) — FRES win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 9:54WSU 4th & 15 at WSU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.6%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q1 7:51FRES 4th & 5 at WSU 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snapGo for it67.8%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call67.8%77% to makePunt66.7%−1.1average punt
- Q1 5:57WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q1 1:00FRES 4th & 4 at WSU 43, up 7Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it69.4%48% to convertField goal68.5%−0.828% to makePuntTheir call68.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:52WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:17FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 47, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.1%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.5%average punt
- Q2 7:26WSU 4th & 15 at WSU 33, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.3%−1.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q2 1:45WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 44, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:41WSU 4th & 21 at WSU 40, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.4%−1.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q3 8:28FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 22, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.1%−1.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%average punt
- Q4 13:11WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 38, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:36WSU 4th & 13 at WSU 33, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 11:54FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:52FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:40WSU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick18.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call18.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:36FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:29FRES Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFRESDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5173% → 74%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
72.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 29 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
72.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+9
72.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the WshSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
73.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4127% → 26%
Q1 10:40
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-5
73.3%
Cameron Ward sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 10Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+5
73.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 5 yds to the WshSt 15Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
73.6%
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3MISSED FG6 plays · 44 yds · 1:3974% → 74%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
74.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 24 yds to the WshSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4826% → 26%
Q1 5:57
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
74.1%
Nick Haberer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 4:4074% → 75%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
73.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
74.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Brennan Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-5
74.0%
Jake Haener sacked by Quinn Roff for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+23
73.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 23 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
75.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 8 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+3
75.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
74.9%
Carson King punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5325% → 25%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
74.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 4 yds to the WshSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5476% → 82%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
76.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+21
76.0%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
76.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 2 yds to the WshSt 10Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
76.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 6 yds to the WshSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8SF5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0119% → 18%
FRESDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3384% → 85%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
84.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+12
84.7%
Carson King punt for 37 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for 12 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 1:4318% → 16%
Q2 8:54
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+10
83.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 10 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-4
83.4%
Cameron Ward sacked by David Perales for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+30
83.9%
Nick Haberer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FRESNOST 22 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1386% → 86%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
86.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the WshSt 49Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 20
OPP 49
-11
86.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Nusi Malani for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 31
OWN 40
0
86.0%
Carson King punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12PUNT15 plays · 29 yds · 5:0016% → 14%
Q2 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+7
84.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 7 yds to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
84.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 6 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
84.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 8 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
85.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 8 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.8%
Cameron Ward run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48 Cameron Ward fumbled, recovered by WshStSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-7
85.0%
Cameron Ward sacked by Evan Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 45Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 21
OWN 40
0
86.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 77 yds · 0:3289% → 88%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
87.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
88.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 11 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
87.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 39 yds to the WshSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14INT9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5715% → 14%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
84.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 9 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
84.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 7 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
84.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 1 yd to the WshSt 48Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
84.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
86.0%
Cameron Ward pass intercepted LJ Early return for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5789% → 89%
WSUDrive 16TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:3012% → 21%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
87.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 21 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
87.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
86.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 3 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
86.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Tsion Nunnally for 4 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
89.0%
Ward, Cameron pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the FRESNOST10 (Bailey, Levelle;Johnson, Isaiah), PENALTY FRESNOST holding 4 yards to the FRESNOST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST.Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5484% → 95%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
85.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for no gain to the WshSt 17Similar
Q3 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
94.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds for a TD (Andre Meono PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 2:048% → 6%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
92.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 8 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
91.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 8 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for no gain to the WshSt 39Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
92.4%
Cameron Ward sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD10 plays · 38 yds · 4:1196% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
96.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 5 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
96.3%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+10
96.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the WshSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:341% → 1%
FRESDrive 21Uncategorized10 plays · 73 yds · 5:0099% → 100%
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
99.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the WshSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:40
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-8.8
TD · Q3 0:36
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds for a TD (Andre Meono PAT MISSED)
+7.3
TD · Q2 12:52
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds for a TD (Andre Meono KICK)
+5.3