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NEV

Nevada 21 at Fresno State 41

FRES
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:40 · Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense+31.3Pregame prior+5.4Score differential+21.5Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.4Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:12: Josh Hokit pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +7.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:05: Ty Gangi pass intercepted for a TD Jaron Bryant return for 18 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +5.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:08: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:54: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 17 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:35: Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +7.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:21NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37NEV 4th & 7 at FRES 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00FRES 4th & 2 at NEV 12, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:12NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:36FRES 4th & 10 at NEV 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:48NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 25, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:11FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:05NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:55NEV 4th & 3 at FRES 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−2.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:36FRES 4th & 15 at NEV 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:36NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 27, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:20FRES 4th & 6 at NEV 36, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:40FRES 4th & 6 at NEV 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:40NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 47, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:12FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:44FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 10, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:21FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:12FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:05FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:54NEV Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:35NEV Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:58FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:23NEV Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3975% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
74.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 16 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
74.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
75.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 5 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
74.8%
Ty Gangi run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
74.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
74.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
74.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Berdale Robins for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
74.8%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
74.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan HenleySimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-9
74.9%
Ty Gangi sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
75.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
75.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 7 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
75.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 8 yds Dejonte O'Neal fumbled, forced by Travis Wilson, recovered by Nevad Gabriel SewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5225% → 25%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
75.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 13 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-1
74.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+21
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 21 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
74.6%
McLane Mannix run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
74.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+7
75.1%
Spencer Pettit 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by James Bailey DeShawn Potts return for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:3776% → 77%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
75.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
76.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to James Bailey for 6 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
76.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
76.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
75.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-5
75.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+14
75.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 14 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
75.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+21
76.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 21 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
76.2%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
76.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
75.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
76.5%
Jimmy Camacho 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Daiyan Henley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
76.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan HenleySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 1:0177% → 85%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+48
76.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 63 yds to the FRESNOST 10 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Derrion Grim) to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
77.5%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
84.8%
Josh Hokit pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-7
82.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
85.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
85.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
85.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
85.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Elijah MoodySimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
84.9%
Marcus McMaryion punt for 23 yds, downed at the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
84.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
84.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Daiyan Henley run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
86.1%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
86.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
86.5%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
86.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-4
86.1%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
85.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vosean Crumbie at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
91.4%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted for a TD Jaron Bryant return for 18 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.3%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.7%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
91.0%
Ty Gangi sacked by Stephen Van Hook for a loss of 12 yards to the Nevad 24 NEVADA Penalty, intentional grounding (Ty Gangi) to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+18
91.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 18 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
91.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete, broken up by Robert StanleySimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
91.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:2493% → 98%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
93.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
93.4%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 38 Jordan Mims fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jordan MimsSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+22
93.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 22 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:142% → 8%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Blake Wright run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
97.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 9 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+40
97.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 40 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
91.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 17 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
85.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
87.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
88.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
88.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 45 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
88.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
88.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Namani Parker for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
88.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Vosean Crumbie return for no gain to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
88.5%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
50
+6
88.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
88.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
88.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:4192% → 97%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
91.9%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+23
91.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 23 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
92.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+10
91.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 10 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+15
91.7%
Da'Mari Scott run for 15 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted John Johnson return for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4697% → 97%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
96.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 12 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
96.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
96.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Elijah Moody) to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.6%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
96.6%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 15 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Aaron Mitchell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
96.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
97.2%
Jimmy Camacho 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.0%
Derrion Grim run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
98.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
98.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+7
98.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
98.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.3%
Andrew Celis run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan HenleySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Jaron Bryant return for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
98.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to James BaileySimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
99.2%
Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
98.5%
Kelton Moore run for 14 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+5
98.4%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 7:2899% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Aaron Mitchell) to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+17
99.3%
Jordan Mims run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
99.4%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
99.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+19
99.3%
Josh Hokit run for 19 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.3%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-10
99.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (David Patterson) to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+5
99.4%
Trent Soechting run for 5 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+4
99.3%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
99.9%
Jimmy Camacho 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31TD
17 plays · 73 yds · 2:210% → 1%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 12 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew Celis, broken up by Trent SoechtingSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 24 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Anthony Palomares) to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+13
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 4 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.9%
Ty Gangi sacked by Emeka Ndoh for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+11
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Juju Hughes) to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Blake Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 13:12
Josh Hokit pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 0:54
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 17 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com