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FRES

Fresno State 27 at San Diego State 3

SDSU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:04 · Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.6Pregame prior+14.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:15: Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +6.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:32: Josh Hokit run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +8.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:25: Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 17 — FRES win probability +5.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:03: Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +9.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:54: Josh Hokit run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +11.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:04FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:53SDSU 4th & 6 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:32SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:05FRES 4th & 12 at SDSU 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:59SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:17SDSU 4th & 6 at FRES 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:03FRES 4th & 4 at SDSU 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:59SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:25FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:08SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:08SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 46, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:21FRES 4th & 2 at SDSU 38, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:15FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:32FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:54FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1FUMBLE
17 plays · 83 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
66.6%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 21 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
66.6%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
66.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+9
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
66.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
66.6%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
66.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
66.6%
Juwan Washington run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the FrsSt 4 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
66.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
66.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 10 Rashaad Penny fumbled, forced by Jeffrey Allison, recovered by FrsSt Mike Bell , return for 1 yd to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
65.5%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
65.5%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
65.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
65.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
65.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 8 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-2
66.1%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
65.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-9
65.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by Robert Stanley for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+14
64.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:4836% → 43%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
63.6%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
63.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
63.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 48 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.1%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1659% → 62%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
58.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
58.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+8
58.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 8 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
59.1%
Juwan Washington run for 45 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
61.2%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+4
61.1%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+1
60.4%
Christian Chapman run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
61.9%
John Baron II 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2139% → 50%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.7%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
59.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
60.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 30 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
58.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
58.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
50.1%
Josh Hokit run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
51.4%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
51.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 9 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
50.5%
Christian Chapman sacked by Nathan Madsen for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
50.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:2252% → 62%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
48.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
47.6%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
47.5%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+7
47.5%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
47.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+8
47.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 8 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
47.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 7 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
47.2%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-10
47.6%
McMARYION, M. rush for 2 yards to the SDSU9 (SMITH, Ron), PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the SDSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
43.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
38.3%
Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
38.1%
CHAPMAN, C. rush for 5 yards to the SDSU28 (BELL, Mike), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+5
37.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 18
0
37.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+4
37.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
37.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4565% → 67%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
35.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-1
33.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
34.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
34.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+37
35.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 51 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 37 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
36.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
36.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-2
36.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
35.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 31 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:2270% → 81%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
29.9%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
29.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
29.7%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+24
29.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 24 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
27.6%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+7
27.4%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
27.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-11
27.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
27.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+16
28.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 16 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
19.2%
Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
20.6%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 10Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
20.5%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
20.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred Trevillion, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
20.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:3884% → 96%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
15.7%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+33
15.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 33 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
15.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
15.1%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.8%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:476% → 5%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
5.7%
Christian Chapman run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
5.8%
CHAPMAN, C. pass complete to WELLS, David for 38 yards to the FS24 (ALLISON, J.), PENALTY SDSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SDSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
5.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
5.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
4.9%
Christian Chapman sacked by Stephen Van Hook for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+1
4.6%
Christian Chapman run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
4.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
4.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
3.1%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
3.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+7
3.2%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
3.1%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
3.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
3.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
2.4%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
2.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
2.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
2.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Isiah MacklinSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
2.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr.Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+8
2.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
50
0
2.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
50
+4
2.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-8
2.7%
Christian Chapman sacked by Emeka Ndoh for a loss of 8 yards to the SANDIEGOST 46 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
2.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
0.9%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
0.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to David TangipaSimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+33
1.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds for a touchback FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:571% → 1%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.1%
Ryan Agnew run for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
1.1%
Ryan Agnew run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-3
1.0%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 36 Chase Jasmin fumbled, recovered by SDSt Chase JasminSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+24
1.0%
Ryan Agnew run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
1.2%
CHAPMAN, C. pass complete to HOLDER, Mikah for 8 yards to the FS32 (BAILEY, James), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 20
50
+13
1.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 13 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
0.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+3
0.7%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
0.7%
AGNEW, Ryan rush for 2 yards to the FS32 (HELMUTH, George), PENALTY FS substitution infraction 5 yards to the FS29, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Isiah Macklin, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:54
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-11.3
FG · Q3 6:03
Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG GOOD
-9.2
TD · Q2 9:32
Josh Hokit run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com