Try the model
BYU

BYU 13 at Fresno State 20

FRES
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:38 · Blake Cusick punt for 64 yds , Hiva Lee returns for no gain to the BYU 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+3.0Home team on offense+17.8Garbage-time factor+12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+3.3Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Rhett Almond 46 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +3.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:07: Jimmy Camacho 42 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:28: Squally Canada run for 4 yds for a TD (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +18.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:28: Corey Edwards kickoff for 65 yds , Dejonte O'Neal return for 12 yds to the FrsSt 12 — FRES win probability +6.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:40: Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +18.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16FRES 4th & 2 at BYU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08BYU 4th & 1 at FRES 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:30BYU 4th & 10 at FRES 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:23FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38FRES 4th & 7 at BYU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 15 at FRES 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:07FRES 4th & 6 at BYU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:34BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:29FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:38FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:20FRES 4th & 2 at BYU 6, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:08FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:28BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:40FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
79.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 8 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
79.4%
Austin Kafentzis run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
79.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
79.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 5:2179% → 78%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
79.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 15 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
79.1%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
79.1%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
79.1%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
79.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
79.1%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
79.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
79.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
79.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
78.3%
Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
78.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Bracken El-Bakri for 8 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+6
77.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Beau Tanner for 6 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
78.0%
Tanner Mangum run for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
77.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Bracken El-Bakri for 7 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Talon Shumway, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
77.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
77.7%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
78.0%
Bracken El-Bakri run for no gain to the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:1478% → 80%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
77.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 3
50
-10
78.0%
MIMS, Jordan rush for 9 yards to the BYU41 (ANDERSON, Z.), PENALTY FS holding (CRONK, C.) 10 yards to the FS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+3
77.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+50
77.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 50 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
78.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.4%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 5:3220% → 22%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
79.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 8 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
79.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 6 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
79.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Beau TannerSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+19
79.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 19 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
79.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+11
78.7%
Squally Canada run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete, broken up by Nathan MadsenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
78.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Beau TannerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
79.2%
MANGUM, T. pass complete to SIMON, M. for 9 yards to the FS27 (HUGHES, Juju), PENALTY FS offside defense 5 yards to the FS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+9
78.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 9 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
78.3%
Tanner Mangum run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
78.3%
BYU Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
78.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 4 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
78.2%
Rhett Almond 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
79.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 58 yds, downed at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 1:0424% → 20%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
76.3%
MANGUM, T. pass intercepted by BRYANT, Jaron at the BYU29, BRYANT, Jaron return to the BYU0, clock 09:33, PENALTY BYU illegal block off-setting, PENALTY FS holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
78.7%
Bracken El-Bakri run for 8 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
78.3%
Bracken El-Bakri run for 4 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
79.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 8 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
78.5%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Jonah Trinnaman, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
78.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-7
79.5%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Robert Stanley for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
80.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
80.4%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
81.0%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
81.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-2
81.7%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
81.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Michael SheltonSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+37
80.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 7 BYU Penalty, NC ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 3:2020% → 22%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
80.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 5 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
80.1%
Bracken El-Bakri run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+5
80.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 5 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
79.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
79.6%
Bracken El-Bakri run for 9 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
79.3%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
78.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
79.4%
Squally Canada run for 17 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.7%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
78.3%
Beau Hoge run for 1 yd to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+27
80.0%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 27 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.4%
Beau Hoge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.8%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Beau TannerSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
78.0%
Beau Hoge sacked by Jeffrey Allison for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
78.3%
Rhett Almond 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:4575% → 80%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
74.8%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
76.1%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
75.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
75.9%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
76.1%
McMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Keesea, PENALTY BYU pass interference (WILCOX, C.) 15 yards to the BYU41, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
76.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 14 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
77.2%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
77.2%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
76.3%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-5
75.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+42
80.0%
Jimmy Camacho 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3221% → 44%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
78.8%
Squally Canada run for 22 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
76.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Jonah Trinnaman, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.3%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
50
+15
77.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 15 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
74.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 8 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
74.5%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
74.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 7 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
74.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-5
75.9%
BYU Penalty, false start (Austin Hoyt) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+9
76.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 9 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
74.5%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
56.2%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds for a TD (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 6:4265% → 88%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
65.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+11
65.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
65.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
67.7%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
66.2%
Da'Mari Scott run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
67.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 35 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
70.7%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
70.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
69.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the BYU 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
69.6%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
68.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
69.6%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.6%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
82.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
82.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
81.8%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
81.7%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.6%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
82.2%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
83.9%
Jonny Linehan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
86.9%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-2
86.9%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
86.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
85.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
81.7%
Beau Hoge run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 8
50
+15
81.8%
HOGE, B. pass incomplete to TRINNAMAN, J., PENALTY FS pass interference (KELLY, Anthoula) 15 yards to the FS35, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.1%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Jonah Trinnaman, broken up by Robert StanleySimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
78.2%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Matt Bushman for 4 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
80.3%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
90.6%
HOKIT, Josh rush for 4 yards to the FS30 (KAUFUSI, C.), PENALTY FS illegal motion 5 yards to the FS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
90.3%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
90.3%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
90.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Sione TakitakiSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
89.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 64 yds , Hiva Lee returns for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+20
89.3%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Matt Bushman for 20 yds Matt Bushman fumbled, forced by Mike Bell, recovered by FrsSt Jeffrey AllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:5495% → 97%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
94.5%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
94.5%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
94.2%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
94.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
97.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
96.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+2
96.6%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:28
Squally Canada run for 4 yds for a TD (Rhett Almond KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q4 12:40
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+18.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:28
Corey Edwards kickoff for 65 yds , Dejonte O'Neal return for 12 yds to the FrsSt 12
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com