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FRES

Fresno State 31 at Hawai'i 21

HAW
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:57 · Jimmy Camacho 54 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense−12.6Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:56: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 25 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +9.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to David Tangipa for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +7.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:23: Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 15 yds for a TD, (Dru Brown pass to Dylan Collie for Two-Point Conversion) — HAW win probability +9.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:09: Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted for a TD Solomon Matautia return for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HAW win probability +11.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:09: FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the FrsSt 1 — HAW win probability +24.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29HAW 4th & 10 at FRES 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:11HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:45HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:15FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:09HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:40HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00HAW 4th & 7 at FRES 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:02FRES 4th & 10 at HAW 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:57FRES 4th & 6 at HAW 36, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:57HAW 4th & 15 at HAW 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−5.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:52HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:45FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:56FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:19FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:38FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:23HAW Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:09HAW Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
23.5%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+11
23.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
23.5%
Josh Hokit run for 14 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
23.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 4 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-9
23.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
23.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
23.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
23.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
24.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 8 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+4
24.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.7%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
24.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 8 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
24.6%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 7 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
24.8%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 6 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
24.9%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 3 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
24.8%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for no gain to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
24.7%
Stan Gaudion punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
26.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
26.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
26.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
26.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:2627% → 35%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
27.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+16
27.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 16 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.6%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
27.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-5
27.4%
Dru Brown sacked by Justin Green for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+11
28.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kumoku Noa for 11 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
29.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
29.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
29.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kumoku Noa for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
33.3%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
33.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
33.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Daniel Lewis Jr.Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
34.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Dylan Collie at the Hawa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.7%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
34.6%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
34.0%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Kumoku NoaSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
33.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:0166% → 70%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
34.1%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
33.6%
Jordan Mims run for 10 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
33.9%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
33.9%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
33.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
33.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
33.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 15 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
33.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
33.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
33.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
32.9%
Dru Brown run for 3 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.5%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
33.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
32.1%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 30Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
31.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for no gain to the Hawa 30Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
31.5%
Stan Gaudion punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
32.9%
Jordan Mims run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
31.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-2
31.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
32.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
34.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
35.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
35.4%
Dru Brown run for 1 yd to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
34.8%
Stan Gaudion punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:0867% → 79%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
32.7%
Da'Mari Scott run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
31.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
31.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
30.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
21.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 25 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:1626% → 24%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
25.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 22Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
24.8%
Dru Brown sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 17 Dru Brown fumbled, recovered by Hawa Dru Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
24.4%
Stan Gaudion punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:0377% → 85%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
23.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 21 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
22.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 13 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
22.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
22.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+15
22.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
22.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds Jared Rice fumbled, forced by Daniel Lewis Jr., recovered by FrsStSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to David Tangipa for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15DOWNS
15 plays · 39 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.6%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Kumoku Noa) to the Hawa 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
17.4%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Kalakaua TimoteoSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
17.4%
Dru Brown run for 10 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
17.6%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Keelan Ewaliko) to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
17.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Mike Bell) to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
17.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kumoku Noa for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+18
17.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 18 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
19.0%
Dru Brown sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+14
17.9%
Dru Brown run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
19.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
19.3%
Dru Brown sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+2
18.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+5
18.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
18.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5187% → 89%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
13.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
12.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 12 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
12.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
12.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Hawa 43Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+34
12.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
12.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 10Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Daniel Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
10.6%
Jimmy Camacho 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
11.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kumoku Noa for 18 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
12.9%
Dru Brown run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Dru Brown fumbled, forced by Tobenna Okeke, recovered by FrsSt Robert Stanley , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4291% → 98%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
9.0%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
8.8%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
9.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 21 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
8.7%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Hawa 16Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
6.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Daniel Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
2.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:153% → 13%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
3.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 12 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
3.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 9 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+7
3.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
3.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dakota Torres for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+7
3.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
3.2%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dakota Torres, broken up by Jeffrey AllisonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
3.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
12.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 15 yds for a TD, (Dru Brown pass to Dylan Collie for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0893% → 81%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
7.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyle Riddering) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+3
7.5%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+19
19.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted for a TD Solomon Matautia return for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:0267% → 73%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
32.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+13
31.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 13 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
30.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
29.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
27.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-4
29.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal shift (-4 Yards) to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
30.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+54
27.4%
Jimmy Camacho 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0035% → 31%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.3%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Ammon BarkerSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
34.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-8
34.4%
Dru Brown sacked by Robert Stanley for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 32Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+7
30.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 48 yds , Da'Mari Scott returns for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:1773% → 79%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
26.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 8 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
25.4%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
24.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
21.9%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+11
23.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Trayvon Henderson) to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
20.7%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
50
+1
20.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Hawa 49Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+19
20.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Eugene Ford return for 19 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:5639% → 39%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
39.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
39.0%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan EwalikoSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+17
38.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 17 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
41.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
41.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 6 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
38.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
41.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
38.8%
Dru Brown pass intercepted, touchback. Anthoula Kelly return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2683% → 93%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.4%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
17.7%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
8.2%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
7.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:09
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the FrsSt 1
+24.9
TD · Q4 13:09
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted for a TD Solomon Matautia return for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.9
TD · Q4 14:23
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 15 yds for a TD, (Dru Brown pass to Dylan Collie for Two-Point Conversion)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com