Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 17 at Fresno State 28

FRES
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:54 · Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−13.6Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:52: Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FRES win probability +14.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 1:55: Haden Hoggarth 24 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +6.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:18: Jimmy Camacho 41 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:05: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +23.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:45: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 81 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +24.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 7:54FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:15BOIS 4th & 3 at FRES 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:00FRES 4th & 8 at BOIS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00BOIS 4th & 13 at FRES 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05FRES 4th & 1 at BOIS 5, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%−2.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−10.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:30FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:10BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−3.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:55BOIS 4th & 2 at FRES 6, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%−2.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−17.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:18FRES 4th & 2 at BOIS 23, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%−1.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:37BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 37, down 9
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:47FRES 4th & 8 at midfield, up 9
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:58FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:54BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:52FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:05BOIS Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:45FRES Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:0235% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
34.8%
Da'Mari Scott run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+26
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 26 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
34.8%
Jordan Mims run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
34.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+13
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
34.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the BoiSt 5 Marcus McMaryion fumbled,Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0462% → 63%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
37.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 45 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
37.1%
MATTISON, Alex rush for loss of 3 yards to the FS33 (FORRESTER, M.;ALLISON, J.), PENALTY FS face mask (FORRESTER, M.) 15 yards to the FS15, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
37.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+6
37.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+9
37.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
37.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
37.6%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
37.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
37.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
37.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:0163% → 62%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
37.4%
Montell Cozart run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
37.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
36.8%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+8
36.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+1
37.1%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
38.5%
Haden Hoggarth 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
39.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
39.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
38.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
38.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 1:3461% → 61%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
39.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
38.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
38.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
38.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
38.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 17 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
37.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
37.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
38.3%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
39.0%
Brett Rypien run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
43.1%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
42.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
42.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
43.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
43.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+40
41.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 17 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (8 Yards) to the BoiSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 48 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
41.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 4 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
41.7%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+20
42.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 20 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
41.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 16 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
39.6%
Cedrick Wilson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
39.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
39.4%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to RICHARDSON, AJ for 26 yards to the FS14, PENALTY BSU illegal block (LARSON, Garrett) 15 yards to the BSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 25
OWN 45
0
40.8%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 25
OWN 45
0
41.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 25
OWN 45
+17
41.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 17 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-5
41.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
42.3%
John Mackesy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FG
17 plays · 81 yds · 4:3045% → 54%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
44.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
45.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+6
44.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
45.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+39
45.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 39 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
48.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 5 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+1
48.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+12
48.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 12 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
50.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
50.8%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
49.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+22
54.3%
Jimmy Camacho 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
49.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alec DhaenensSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
52.7%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
52.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
51.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 7 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
53.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
52.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
51.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
51.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 9 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+10
50.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Robert StanleySimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
51.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by Nathan Madsen for a loss of 10 yards to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+2
53.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
54.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:3856% → 74%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
55.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 12 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
58.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+36
59.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 36 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
60.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
60.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4828% → 34%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
71.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
71.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+27
72.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 27 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
69.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+25
68.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 25 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
71.0%
Montell Cozart run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-3
71.0%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
72.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
66.2%
Haden Hoggarth 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:3773% → 82%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ronnie Rivers, broken up by David MoaSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
72.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 32 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
75.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
75.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
74.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
76.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 1 yd to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+7
76.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 7 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
81.6%
Jimmy Camacho 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1321% → 47%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
78.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT Thomas, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
79.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
77.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Alec Dhaenens) to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
79.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+22
78.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 22 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
76.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+13
74.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
74.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
74.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+13
75.8%
Brett Rypien run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
86.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 81 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
86.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (KeeSean Johnson) to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
86.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
86.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
86.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-2
84.8%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
86.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 3:3491% → 97%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.4%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
91.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
91.3%
Da'Mari Scott run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
91.9%
Josh Hokit run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
92.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
92.2%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-10
96.5%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for 44 yards to the BSU0, clock 01:53, PENALTY FS holding (RIDDERING, Kyle) 10 yards to the FS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+4
96.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 8
50
0
96.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21SF
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:233% → 2%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
96.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
96.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 10
-10
97.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:45
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 81 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q4 9:05
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-23.1
TD · Q3 5:52
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com