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FRES

Fresno State 33 at Houston 27

HOU
2017 · Hawai'i Bowl · Dec 24, 2017 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:00 · Blake Cusick punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+1.7Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:21: Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +16.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:54: Alexander Myres 94 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +22.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:56: Jimmy Camacho 26 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +7.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:49: D'Eriq King pass intercepted by Jaron Bryant return for 44 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +16.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +18.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:11HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:08FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:53HOU 4th & 10 at FRES 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:24FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:36HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:47HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:13FRES 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:29HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:45FRES 4th & 2 at HOU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:17HOU 4th & 7 at FRES 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:02FRES 4th & 5 at HOU 39, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:11HOU 4th & 3 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:57HOU 4th & 4 at FRES 14, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−10.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:54FRES 4th & 7 at HOU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−9.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:56FRES 4th & 5 at HOU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−16.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:01HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15HOU 4th & 4 at FRES 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:35HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:21FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:54HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:49FRES Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:45HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4355% → 55%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
55.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
55.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
55.1%
Dane Roy punt for 56 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5545% → 45%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
55.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
55.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
55.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:2655% → 57%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
55.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
55.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+48
55.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 48 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.2%
Ed Oliver run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5243% → 43%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
56.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
57.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted by D'Juan Hines at the FrsSt 28, return for no gain Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0758% → 58%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
58.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+3
58.2%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
58.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
58.0%
Caden Novikoff 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2842% → 41%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
57.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Aaron Mitchell) to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-2
57.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+4
58.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 4 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4359% → 59%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
59.1%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
59.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
58.7%
Dane Roy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2641% → 40%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
58.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
59.2%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
59.4%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
60.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0560% → 60%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
59.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
59.9%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
59.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.6%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
60.6%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+5
60.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
59.9%
Dane Roy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:2440% → 46%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
60.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 21 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
59.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
59.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+13
59.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 13 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
58.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 11 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
58.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 5
OPP 9
0
58.8%
Josh Hokit pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
58.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+7
59.6%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Jordan, Jamire, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Johnson, Isaiah) 7 yards to the HOUSTON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.7%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3456% → 55%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mulbah Car for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
56.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Alex LeslieSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.2%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:3445% → 48%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
55.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+1
53.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
54.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Micah St. Andrew) to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+21
55.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 21 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
53.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
53.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
52.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 Yards) to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
52.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
52.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
53.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
51.9%
Jimmy Camacho 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:1253% → 58%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
53.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
52.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
51.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+50
53.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 50 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.4%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
55.5%
John Leday run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
54.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
57.6%
Caden Novikoff 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5746% → 47%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.9%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
54.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
53.7%
Da'Mari Scott run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
53.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 25 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
51.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
51.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
51.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+56
52.7%
Jimmy Camacho 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4158% → 58%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
58.3%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
59.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Alex LeslieSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+20
58.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 20 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
59.9%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-2
60.6%
Linell Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+4
59.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
57.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Alex LeslieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
13 plays · 50 yds · 1:0347% → 56%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
52.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
51.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 16 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
49.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
49.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
50.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Micah St. Andrew) to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+10
51.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 10 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+7
48.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
48.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+38
44.1%
Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1151% → 54%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
48.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+11
48.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
47.4%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
46.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+14
46.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 14 yds to the Houst 41 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, forced by D'Juan Hines, recovered by Houston's Terrell WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2652% → 59%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
52.1%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
52.4%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+11
51.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
53.1%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
53.2%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+15
52.6%
D'Eriq King run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
54.5%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-2
54.5%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+7
52.3%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
58.7%
Caden Novikoff 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2746% → 70%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.7%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
52.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+29
53.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 29 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
47.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 17 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
47.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
47.7%
Mims, Jordan rush for loss of 3 yards to the HOUSTON10, NO PLAY PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul 4 yards to the HOUSTON3, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
47.1%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1271% → 48%
Q3 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
29.4%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 0
OPP 17
+4
28.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
29.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 6 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+94
51.7%
Alexander Myres 94 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FG
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:4447% → 58%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
53.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+9
54.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+37
54.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 37 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
48.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
46.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+4
46.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+12
46.1%
Josh Hokit run for 12 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
46.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
46.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+8
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
41.9%
Jimmy Camacho 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:3446% → 41%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
49.0%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
45.6%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
45.1%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
44.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Duke Catalon for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+5
41.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
43.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
41.2%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:3163% → 79%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
36.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 6 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
35.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
35.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
33.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
34.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
30.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+19
30.7%
Josh Hokit run for 19 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
28.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 9 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+18
26.2%
Josh Hokit run for 18 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
25.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
24.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-15
25.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct Head Coach J. Tedford (-15 Yards) to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
25.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
20.7%
Jimmy Camacho 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24INT TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5128% → 7%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
27.5%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+18
27.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 18 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
27.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-4
26.4%
D'Eriq King sacked by Robert Stanley for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+16
23.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+44
6.8%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted by Jaron Bryant return for 44 yds for a TD (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
19 plays · 76 yds · 2:506% → 25%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
6.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+8
6.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 8 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
6.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 11 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
6.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
6.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+14
6.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
8.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mulbah CarSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
8.2%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
7.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
7.3%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+7
6.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 7 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
8.3%
D'Eriq King sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+7
6.6%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference 7 yards to the FRESNOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
7.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
6.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Alex LeslieSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:3995% → 95%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-3
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:54
Alexander Myres 94 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Caden Novikoff Kick)
+22
TD · Q4 0:45
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q3 4:21
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com