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FRES

Fresno State 27 at San José State 10

SJSU
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Blake Cusick punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior−12.7Home team on offense−27.9Score differential−13.6Garbage-time factor−7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:24: Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +2.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:24: Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 6 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:40: Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:36: Bryce Crawford 51 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:30FRES 4th & 7 at SJSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:48SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:09FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:37SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59FRES 4th & 12 at SJSU 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−1.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 15, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:24FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:55SJSU 4th & 4 at FRES 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:40FRES 4th & 10 at SJSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:36SJSU 4th & 19 at FRES 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:14FRES 4th & 5 at SJSU 33, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:31SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:16FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:06FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:24FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:24SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.4%
Zamore Zigler run for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
11.4%
JaQuan Blackwell pass intercepted Jaron Bryant return for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
11.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
11.9%
ZIGLER, Zamore rush up middle for 1 yard to the SJ14 (BAILEY, James;ALLISON, J.), PENALTY SJ holding (GONZALEZ, Chris) 6 yards to the SJ7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 16
OWN 7
0
11.9%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 16
OWN 7
-4
11.9%
Josh Love sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 3Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 20
OWN 3
+7
11.9%
Malike Roberson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+3
11.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 49 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:0388% → 87%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
12.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
12.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
12.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
12.5%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
12.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
12.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 4 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
12.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 2 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+6
12.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 6 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+3
12.5%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
12.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the SJSt 5 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (KeeSean Johnson) to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
13.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
14.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
13.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.9%
Josh Love pass intercepted Juju Hughes return for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2986% → 88%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
13.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds to the SJSU 43 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
13.7%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+45
13.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 45 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
13.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
13.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:4713% → 13%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
12.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-2
12.7%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
12.3%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+11
12.2%
Zamore Zigler run for 11 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
12.5%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:5788% → 88%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
12.2%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush left for 4 yards to the FS27 (McKNIGHT, Mauri), PENALTY FS holding (RICE, Jared) 10 yards to the FS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+15
12.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 15 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
12.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+11
12.3%
Josh Hokit run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+22
12.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 22 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
11.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 9 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
11.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
11.9%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+5
12.0%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
12.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
11.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
12.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 7 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
12.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.2%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.1%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
12.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 8:0488% → 95%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
11.6%
McMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JORDAN, Jamire, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass (MUTI, Netane) 5 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+8
11.7%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
11.6%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
11.7%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
11.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+14
11.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
11.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+13
11.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
11.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
11.0%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
11.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
11.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
11.0%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-10
11.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the SJSt 11 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (-14 Yards) to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+12
11.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Andre Chachere) to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
11.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 12 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.5%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
8.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 14 yds to the SJSt 36 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre Walker) to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 6
OWN 26
0
8.5%
Zamore Zigler run for no gain to the SJSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
6.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
6.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.4%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 1 yd to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
7.3%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
7.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
7.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
5.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
5.0%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
5.1%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
5.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:297% → 13%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
7.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
7.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
7.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+18
7.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
7.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
7.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
7.6%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
8.8%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 6 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
9.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
9.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by William OssaiSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
9.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
10.6%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 9 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
11.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
11.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
11.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-3
12.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
11.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:1291% → 91%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
8.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 1 yd to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
8.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-5
9.1%
McMARYION, M. pass complete to SCOTT, Da'Mari for 7 yards to the FS17, PENALTY FS pass interference (RICE, Jared) 5 yards to the FS5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+15
9.2%
McMARYION, M. pass incomplete to SCOTT, Da'Mari, PENALTY SJ pass interference (WEBB, Tre) 15 yards to the FS20, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
8.7%
McMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Keesea, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass (ST. ANDREW, M.) 5 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
8.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
8.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
8.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
8.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
9.9%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 7 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-10
10.3%
ZIGLER, Zamore rush up middle for 1 yard to the SJ36 (NDOH, Emeka;HAYNES, Jasad), PENALTY SJ holding (FREDRICKSON, Do) 10 yards to the SJ25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-4
9.3%
Josh Love sacked by Juju Hughes for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 21 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Emeka Ndoh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2194% → 94%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
6.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
6.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Maurice McKnightSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
6.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
5.6%
Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:046% → 5%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
6.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
6.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 11 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
6.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
6.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
7.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
7.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+16
7.3%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 16 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
8.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
7.6%
Zamore Zigler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-9
7.1%
Josh Love sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
5.7%
Bryce Crawford 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
5.4%
CARRIZOSA, Mich kickoff 49 yards to the FS16, JORDAN, Jamire return to the FS22 (BURRILL, Jackso), PENALTY SJ offside (KELLY, Jeremy) 5 yards to the SJ30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1796% → 97%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
4.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
4.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the SJSt 31Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-2
4.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
2.6%
Jimmy Camacho 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23FUMBLE
12 plays · 13 yds · 1:434% → 2%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
3.8%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to OLIVER, Josh (BRYANT, Jaron), PENALTY SJ holding 10 yards to the SJ15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
3.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
3.7%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre (JOHNSON, Johnny), PENALTY FS pass interference (JOHNSON, Johnny) 15 yards to the SJ34, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
3.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Jeremy Kelly for 8 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
4.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
4.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan BlackwellSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
4.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
3.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Jeremy KellySimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 10
OWN 45
-7
2.2%
Josh Love sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 38 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Robert Stanley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
1.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
1.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Owen Roberts) to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+1
1.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
1.6%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-2
1.6%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds to the SJSt 15 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (David Patterson) to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
1.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
1.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the SJSt 21Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+6
1.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q3 6:24
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 6 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q1 2:24
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com