Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 14 at Boise State 17

BOIS
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:27 · Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for 36 yds to the FrsSt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:08: Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:53: Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +10.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:42: Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +40.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:38: Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan Mims — FRES win probability +8.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:08: Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39 — BOIS win probability +9.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:23FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54BOIS 4th & 11 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10BOIS 4th & 5 at FRES 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01FRES 4th & 13 at BOIS 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:44BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01FRES 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01BOIS 4th & 12 at FRES 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:27FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:55BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:56BOIS 4th & 10 at FRES 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:13FRES 4th & 9 at BOIS 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:08BOIS 4th & 14 at FRES 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:32FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−5.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:23BOIS 4th & 6 at FRES 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:34FRES 4th & 9 at BOIS 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:53BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−4.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:45FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:14FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:23BOIS 4th & 9 at FRES 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:01FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:08BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:53FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:42BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:3027% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
72.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
72.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
72.5%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
72.4%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
72.2%
Josh Hokit run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
72.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
71.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+1
72.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
72.0%
Jimmy Camacho 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2372% → 71%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
72.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.2%
Cedrick Wilson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
72.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
72.2%
Robert Mahone run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
72.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-6
72.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
71.3%
Quinn Skillin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5329% → 29%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
71.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
71.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-5
71.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Aaron Mitchell) to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+14
71.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-5
71.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+61
71.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 51 yds BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:3971% → 71%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
70.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
71.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, Encroachment (Archie Lewis) to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+7
70.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
71.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+17
70.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
71.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 22 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
71.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
71.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Montell Cozart for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
71.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alec DhaenensSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+31
71.4%
Haden Hoggarth 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:0429% → 29%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
70.5%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
70.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+11
69.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
69.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
69.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-5
69.5%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
71.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5970% → 69%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
70.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
69.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
69.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3830% → 38%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
70.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 15 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
68.9%
Josh Hokit run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
68.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 13 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
67.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+22
67.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 22 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.3%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.1%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.1%
Da'Mari Scott run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:4563% → 61%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
62.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 40 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
65.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
65.8%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY BOISEST illegal shift 5 yards to the FRESNOST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
64.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
62.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
61.3%
Quinn Skillin punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3438% → 37%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
62.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Jared Rice) to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
61.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
62.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
62.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+36
63.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for 36 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1265% → 72%
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
65.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
65.1%
Cedrick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:0131% → 45%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
69.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kekoa Nawahine) to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
67.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 11 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
67.0%
Da'Mari Scott run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
65.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 22 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
55.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:4861% → 60%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
60.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 12 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
60.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
61.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+28
59.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the BOISEST 30 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4642% → 45%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
57.8%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+17
58.0%
Josh Hokit run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
54.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
55.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14MISSED FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:5159% → 55%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
58.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
58.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
58.4%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Mattison, Alexander, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Allison, Jeffrey) 15 yards to the BOISEST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
61.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
61.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
60.4%
Montell Cozart run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
60.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
62.1%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
59.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 6 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
61.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. Richardson, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
61.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
58.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
54.8%
Haden Hoggarth 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3848% → 50%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
52.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
52.2%
Da'Mari Scott run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
51.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
49.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+15
52.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
48.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
46.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Kekaula KanihoSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
46.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
49.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5452% → 49%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
51.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
52.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
52.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 28 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
56.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
56.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Montell CozartSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-4
54.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Robert Stanley for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
48.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2752% → 52%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
48.2%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-7
45.7%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Desmond Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 9 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, forced by Desmond Williams, recovered by FrsSt Marcus McMaryion , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 14
OWN 9
0
47.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
47.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0249% → 44%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
50
0
49.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 7
50
+6
47.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 6 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
46.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Eric Quevedo) to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
44.2%
Quinn Skillin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4058% → 63%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
42.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
42.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 15 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
40.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
40.0%
Da'Mari Scott run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+15
38.6%
McMaryion, Marcus pass incomplete to Rice, Jared, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Pierce, DeAndre) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
35.6%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
35.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
34.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
34.3%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
34.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
37.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 31 yds, downed at the BoiSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2239% → 36%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
39.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+3
40.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
40.1%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
39.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-2
37.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
35.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 38 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0271% → 70%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
29.5%
Mims, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the BOISEST46, PENALTY FRESNOST holding (Riddering, Kyle) 10 yards to the FRESNOST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+10
32.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 10 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
28.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Dejonte O'NealSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
28.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds Jamire Jordan fumbled, recovered by FrsStSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-6
28.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
30.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 2:5637% → 81%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
36.9%
Rypien, Brett pass complete to Wolpin, Ryan for 8 yards to the BOISEST18, PENALTY BOISEST ineligible downfield on pass (Larson, Garrett) 5 yards to the BOISEST5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+59
35.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 59 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
42.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Archie Lewis) to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+10
39.2%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
43.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
40.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
43.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
39.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
39.9%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Kelly, Anthoula) 11 yards to the FRESNOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2433% → 29%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds , Avery Williams returns for 5 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:4581% → 89%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
80.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
82.6%
Ryan Wolpin run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
86.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-3
88.4%
Robert Mahone run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
88.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2911% → 14%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
89.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+9
86.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Leighton Vander Esch return for 9 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1492% → 95%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
92.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
93.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-1
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:42
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+40.9
TD · Q2 1:53
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-10.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:08
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com