Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 18 at San Diego State 33

SDSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Snapdragon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Mayden takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:03: Jalen Mayden run for 70 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:58: Jack Browning 41 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Dylan Lynch 43 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:55: Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Jalen Moss pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +9.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:51SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12SDSU 4th & 7 at FRES 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02FRES 4th & 2 at SDSU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:02SDSU 4th & 2 at FRES 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56SDSU 4th & 8 at FRES 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 27, up 1
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:06FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:57FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:58SDSU 4th & 7 at FRES 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:12FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:45SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:30FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 29, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:37FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 44, down 13
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:37SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−2.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−11.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:14SDSU 4th & 6 at FRES 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−7.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:00SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−4.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−5.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45FRES 4th & 9 at SDSU 31, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:19FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:03SDSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:55SDSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:08FRES Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:54SDSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0942% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Cameron HarpoleSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.2%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+16
42.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 16 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
42.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+16
42.2%
Cam Davis run for 16 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+3
42.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
42.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-8
42.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Levelle Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 49Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 20
OWN 49
0
43.3%
Jack Browning punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:3257% → 59%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
43.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
43.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 11 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
43.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
43.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+62
41.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 62 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:0342% → 44%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
41.8%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+20
41.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 20 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
42.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Phillippe Wesley II for 14 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
42.5%
Joshua Nicholson run for 2 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
42.5%
Kenan Christon run for 10 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
42.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 11 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
42.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
42.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
42.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
43.7%
Jack Browning 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:0457% → 57%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
43.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 14 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
42.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
42.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
42.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
42.5%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
43.2%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Marcus Ratcliffe return for no gain to the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 4:0645% → 46%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
45.1%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
45.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 6 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
44.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+2
44.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
45.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-7
45.1%
Jalen Mayden sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+6
44.1%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
45.9%
Jack Browning 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1356% → 54%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
44.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
44.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
45.8%
Carson King punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0346% → 45%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
45.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
45.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 2 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+1
44.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SDSU 24Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
44.5%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2956% → 54%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
43.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
44.1%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Richie AndersonSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
45.7%
Carson King punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 2:0346% → 56%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
45.9%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
46.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 10 yds to the SDSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
46.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Phillippe Wesley IISimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
46.1%
Cam Davis run for 8 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+70
56.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 70 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0145% → 42%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
54.6%
Mikey Keene sacked by Keion Mitchell for a loss of 9 yards to the FRES 10Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+3
55.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 13Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+5
55.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
57.6%
Carson King punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the FRES 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:5960% → 63%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
60.3%
Tobin O'Dell run for 5 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+16
60.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 16 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
60.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
60.5%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the FRES 24Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
59.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
62.9%
Jack Browning 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4137% → 36%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
63.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Antoine Sullivan for 6 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+7
63.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 7 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
63.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 11 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
62.7%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+8
64.4%
Carson King punt for 48 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 8 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2764% → 64%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
63.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Phillippe Wesley IISimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
63.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+8
62.4%
Kenan Christon run for 8 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
63.5%
Jack Browning punt for 41 yds , Al'zillion Hamilton returns for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:4536% → 43%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
64.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
62.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+16
63.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 16 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
62.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 13 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
61.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
61.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+43
57.4%
Dylan Lynch 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2641% → 39%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
59.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Carson King punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:3565% → 81%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
65.2%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
65.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Napier for 2 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
62.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 15 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
65.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
65.7%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+21
64.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 21 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
65.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the FRES 3Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1821% → 20%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
78.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
77.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
78.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
80.1%
Carson King punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 7:2383% → 92%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.6%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
82.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
82.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
82.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
83.1%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSU 38Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+28
82.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 28 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
83.5%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
83.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
82.8%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
81.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
90.8%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+2
90.6%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
92.0%
Jack Browning 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0610% → 23%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
89.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
89.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
50
+13
89.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 13 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 3 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+20
87.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 20 yds to the SDSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
87.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 12 yds to the SDSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the SDSU 1Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Jalen Moss pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
19 plays · 78 yds · 7:0686% → 99%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
85.8%
Tobin O'Dell run for 14 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.8%
Tobin O'Dell run for 2 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
87.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 6 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
86.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 5 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
87.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
87.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
87.9%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
87.2%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the FRES 31Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
86.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
87.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
94.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 8 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+12
96.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 12 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Leo Kemp for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
99.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
98.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 17 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.7%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
98.8%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 9
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Malik SherrodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
98.7%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-1
98.6%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
98.8%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:55
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q2 8:03
Jalen Mayden run for 70 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q4 10:08
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Jalen Moss pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com