Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 29 at Arizona State 0

ASU
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:19 · Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the ASU 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense−32.6Score differential−16.7Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Pregame prior−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:23: Dylan Lynch 30 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:25: Dylan Lynch 29 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:28: Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the FRES 3 — FRES win probability +6.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:03: Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 42 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +11.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:22: Dylan Lynch 50 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 5:50FRES 4th & 13 at ASU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:23FRES 4th & 8 at ASU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:25FRES 4th & 8 at ASU 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−6.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:28ASU 4th & 1 at FRES 1, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−5.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:35ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:57FRES 4th & 4 at ASU 27, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:19FRES 4th & 2 at ASU 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:22FRES 4th & 26 at ASU 32, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:49ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 37, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:30FRES 4th & 7 at ASU 49, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:31FRES 4th & 10 at ASU 15, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:18ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 44, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:43FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 43, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:16FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 19, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:27FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:03FRES Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3354% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
46.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+9
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds to the ASU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 13 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
46.4%
Mikey Keene sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 28
+9
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
45.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:0646% → 46%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
46.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 8 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:3155% → 56%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
45.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 5 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
45.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+17
45.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 17 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
45.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
45.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the ASU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
45.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the ASU 14Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
45.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-9
45.2%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ro Torrence for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 21Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
44.2%
Dylan Lynch 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1944% → 43%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 5 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
44.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 2 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bourguet,Trenton pass complete short middle to Badger,Elijhah for 0 yards to the ASU32 (Norris Jr.,Morice) PENALTY FS Offside (Holmes,Jacob) 5 yards from ASU32 to ASU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
44.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 11 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
45.0%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+20
45.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 20 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
45.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 1 yd to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
45.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Javen JacobsSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-5
42.9%
Drew Pyne sacked by Morice Norris Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 32 Drew Pyne fumbled, recovered by FRES Kemari Munier-Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:0857% → 63%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
42.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 33Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
43.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+14
42.6%
Logan Fife run for 14 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
42.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
42.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
40.9%
PENALTY FS False Start (Nelson,Braylen) 5 yards from ASU33 to ASU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
41.1%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+15
41.3%
Arizona State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Demetries Ford) to the ASU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-12
40.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ro Torrence for a loss of 12 yards to the ASU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 26
+5
41.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 5 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+9
41.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 9 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
37.4%
Dylan Lynch 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:5338% → 37%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
38.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-1
38.6%
Drew Pyne sacked by Charles Remlinger for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 27Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-14
37.4%
Drew Pyne sacked by Kemari Munier-Bailey for a loss of 14 yards to the ASU 13 Drew Pyne fumbled, recovered by FRES Jacob Holmes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5864% → 69%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.8%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
35.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 2 yds to the ASU 11Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
36.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
30.6%
Dylan Lynch 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4934% → 32%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
33.8%
Tevin White run for 1 yd to the ASU 31Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
33.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 5 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+24
34.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 24 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
35.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
35.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 12 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
35.8%
Drew Pyne run for 11 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
35.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 11 yds to the FRES 6 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Raymond Scott) to the FRES 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the FRES 2Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.8%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.3%
George Hart III run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Bryce PierreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
20 plays · 50 yds · 5:0474% → 78%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
26.0%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the FRES 3Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
26.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 3Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+15
26.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 15 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
25.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
25.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
25.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Boust for 3 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
25.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jake BoustSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
25.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
24.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Elijah GilliamSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
24.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
50
+8
24.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 8 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Malik SherrodSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
18.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Keene,Mikey pass incomplete short left to Brooks,Erik PENALTY ASU Roughing The Passer (Green,B.J.) 15 yards from ASU42 to ASU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
17.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
18.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 9 yds to the ASU 18Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-5
18.2%
PENALTY FS False Start (Dalena,Mac) 5 yards from ASU18 to ASU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-10
18.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Keene,Mikey pass complete short left to Comstock,Steven for 2 yards loss to the ASU25 (Clark,Jordan) PENALTY FS Holding (Velez,Osmar) 10 yards from ASU23 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 16
OPP 33
-16
18.5%
Fresno State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-16 Yards) to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 32
OPP 49
0
22.2%
Carson King punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1125% → 24%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.3%
Drew Pyne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:1380% → 82%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
19.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 16 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+53
18.1%
Dylan Lynch 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1825% → 24%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the ASU 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
25.0%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
24.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
23.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3279% → 91%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
21.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
20.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 9 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
20.2%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
20.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
9.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 42 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2415% → 13%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
14.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
13.4%
Fresno State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ASU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3592% → 91%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
8.3%
Jaelen Gill run for 6 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
8.1%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
8.2%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
8.9%
Dylan Lynch 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3813% → 10%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
12.8%
Tevin White run for 4 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
9.7%
Tevin White run for 1 yd to the ASU 32 Tevin White fumbled, recovered by FRES Merhauti XeperaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:5792% → 97%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
7.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
7.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 4 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
7.7%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+8
8.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the ASU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
7.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the ASU 11Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-12
7.5%
Mikey Keene sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 12 yards to the ASU 23Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 17
OPP 23
-9
7.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Shamari Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 32Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 26
OPP 32
+50
3.3%
Dylan Lynch 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.0%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Cameron SkatteboSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.0%
Jacob Conover sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 22Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
1.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 15 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.1%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Giovanni SandersSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
2.0%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
2.0%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+12
1.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 50 yds , Erik Brooks returns for 12 yds to the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1998% → 98%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 26Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
2.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
2.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
2.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
2.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
2.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+7
2.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
2.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
1.8%
Carson King punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:121% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
1.2%
Jacob Conover run for 2 yds to the ASU 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
1.1%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
1.3%
Jacob Conover pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
1.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Elijah GilliamSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
1.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
1.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
1.2%
Dylan Lynch 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
1.0%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 4 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+27
1.1%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Kyson Brown for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
1.1%
Jacob Conover run for 2 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
1.1%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Shawn CharlesSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-8
1.1%
Jacob Conover sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3599% → 100%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
0.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+14
0.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 14 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
0.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
0.7%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
0.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
0.4%
Carson King punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
0.3%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 31 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Jacob Conover run for no gain to the FRES 49Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
0.3%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Kyson Brown for 3 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+9
0.3%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Giovanni SandersSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Jacob Conover pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 13Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+8
0.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 8 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
PENALTY FS Delay Of Game 5 yards from FS 25 to FS 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
0.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 21Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
0.3%
Jaelen Gill run for 3 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
0.3%
PENALTY FS False Start 5 yards from FS 24 to FS 19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
0.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+7
0.2%
Carson King punt for 52 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 7 yds to the ASU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.1%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
0.1%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
0.1%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
0.1%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
0.1%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
0.1%
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
0.1%
George Hart III run for 7 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
0.1%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the FRES 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:03
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 42 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-11.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:28
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the FRES 3
-6.4
FG · Q2 10:25
Dylan Lynch 29 yd FG GOOD
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com