Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 25 at Fresno State 17

FRES
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:55 · Carson King punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+27.2Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:06: Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +2.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:19: Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 50 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNM win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 2:30: Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNM win probability +24.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:57: Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 33 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +29.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:25: Dylan Lynch 44 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +1.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:53UNM 4th & 20 at FRES 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:46UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28FRES 4th & 9 at UNM 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:08UNM 4th & 12 at FRES 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:27FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:55FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:45FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:55FRES 4th & 10 at UNM 36, up 2
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50FRES 4th & 14 at UNM 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:57FRES 4th & 18 at FRES 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:22UNM 4th & 8 at FRES 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.2%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:25FRES 4th & 10 at UNM 27, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 6:05FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:06FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19UNM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:30UNM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:57UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 5:077% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+46
93.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 46 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 5 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
93.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 4 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
93.3%
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the FRES 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
93.3%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
92.2%
HOPKINS, Dylan pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to BRUCKLER, Trace caught at the FST0 and advanced to the FST0, TOUCHDOWN UNM, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:18 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UNM Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the FST19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-1
92.2%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Dupre Mendoza for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 20Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the FRES 20Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
91.9%
Luke Drzewiecki 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4292% → 92%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
91.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 3 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
91.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
91.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
92.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+53
91.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 53 yds to the UNM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the UNM 1Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.0%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the UNM 1Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:199% → 9%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.4%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Morice Norris Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 24Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1892% → 91%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
91.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
91.5%
Jaelen Gill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 24Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
91.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
90.8%
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 4:159% → 10%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
90.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
90.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+13
90.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 13 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
90.6%
Devon Dampier run for 1 yd to the UNM 45Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
90.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-15
89.8%
HOPKINS, Dylan pass deep to the right complete for 25 yards to HIXON, Jeremiah caught at the FST40 and advanced to the FST31, End of Play, clock 00:00. PENALTY UNM Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the UNM44 to the UNM29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 29
+13
90.2%
Dylan Hopkins run for 13 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
90.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:0790% → 92%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
89.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-5
89.5%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 18Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+17
89.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 17 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
89.6%
FIFE, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the FST44. PENALTY UNM Holding enforced 10 yards from the FST35 to the FST45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
50
+11
90.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
90.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Mac Dalena for 26 yds to the UNM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
90.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the UNM 6Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:589% → 9%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 7 yds to the UNM 32Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
91.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 6 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
91.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 19 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
91.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
91.3%
run for 2 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
91.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 14 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
90.8%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
91.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-5
91.4%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (D.J. Washington) to the FRES 21Similar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
90.7%
Luke Drzewiecki 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3490% → 90%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
90.9%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
90.4%
Logan Fife run for 4 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Carson King punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 2:089% → 14%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
91.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 17 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
91.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
50
+50
85.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 50 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1786% → 84%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
85.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+8
84.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
84.1%
Carson King punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5513% → 14%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
86.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
86.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+11
86.3%
Andrew Henry run for 11 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0884% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 11
OWN 22
+1
83.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
83.6%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
82.9%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
81.8%
Carson King punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · -21 yds · 2:0818% → 19%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
81.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
81.5%
New Mexico Penalty, Delay Of Game (D.J. Washington) to the UNM 40Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-41
81.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Levelle Bailey return for 41 yds to the UNM 14 Levelle Bailey fumbled, recovered by UNM D.J. Washington [NHSG] HOPKINS, Dylan pass to the left intercepted by BAILEY, Levelle at the FST45 intended for HIXON, Jeremiah. Bailey return for 41 yards to the UNM14, BAILEY, Levelle fumbled at UNM25 forced by ERICKSON, Andrew, recovered by UNM WASHINGTON, DJ at the UNM14, returned 0 yards, End of Play, clock 11:37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3318% → 17%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
81.6%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the UNM 19Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
81.5%
Andrew Henry run for 6 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.5%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the UNM 26Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
81.5%
Dylan Hopkins run for 7 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
79.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Dean Clark return for no gain to the FRES 49Similar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
82.7%
FIFE, Logan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the UNM10. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on ELLIS, Christian enforced 15 yards to the UNM36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0983% → 80%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
83.1%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
83.0%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the UNM 36Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
82.2%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
79.7%
Carson King punt for 29 yds, downed at the UNM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 5:2520% → 49%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
79.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 14Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+24
79.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 24 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
78.0%
Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+22
76.9%
Andrew Henry run for 22 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
75.5%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+8
75.3%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
75.2%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (D.J. Washington) to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-10
75.9%
New Mexico Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zach Morris) to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+12
76.1%
Dylan Hopkins run for 12 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+8
75.2%
Devon Dampier run for 8 yds to the FRES 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:4062% → 54%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
61.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 16 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-13
64.5%
Logan Fife sacked by Kyler Drake for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 23
OWN 42
+14
60.5%
Logan Fife run for 14 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
63.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 49Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
54.4%
Carson King punt for 46 yds, downed at the UNM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 5:5347% → 82%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+20
52.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 20 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
52.1%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
51.1%
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
51.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
51.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 13 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
48.7%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+26
51.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 26 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
46.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
47.1%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+33
17.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 33 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5320% → 17%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
19.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Hunter Rapolla for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
18.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
16.6%
Carson King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3586% → 89%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
14.0%
Devon Dampier run for 11 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
13.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
13.8%
Devon Dampier run for 1 yd to the FRES 42Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
10.5%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
11.1%
New Mexico Penalty, Delay Of Game (D.J. Washington) to the FRES 44Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
10.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, downed at the FRES 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 1:5710% → 15%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
10.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Artis Cole for 7 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+10
10.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 10 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
10.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
12.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
12.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
11.6%
KEENE, Mikey pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the UNM13. PENALTY UNM Offsides enforced 5 yards from the FST43 to the FST48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
12.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+8
11.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 8 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
13.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 7 yds to the UNM 37Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-1
13.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 38Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+11
13.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the UNM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for no gain to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
15.3%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for no gain to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
13.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
14.5%
Dylan Lynch 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 10 yds · 3:2393% → 97%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
6.9%
Devon Dampier run for 5 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
6.7%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
6.9%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
2.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by DAMPIER, Devon at FST33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:57
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 33 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-29.2
TD · Q3 2:30
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-24.5
TD · Q2 2:19
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 50 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com