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FRES

Fresno State 37 at Utah State 32

USU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2023 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by FSU at FSU13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:00: Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 52 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +14.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:51: Malik Sherrod run for 46 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +13.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:29: Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 43 yds for a TD (J. Royals Run For Two-point Conversion) — USU win probability +24.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 4:42: Rahsul Faison run for 24 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +40.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:19: Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FRES win probability +39.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:12FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38USU 4th & 2 at FRES 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:19USU 4th & 1 at FRES 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:05USU 4th & 22 at USU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:32FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42USU 4th & 8 at USU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:33USU 4th & 1 at USU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:37USU 4th & 4 at FRES 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:04USU 4th & 6 at FRES 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:45FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:50FRES 4th & 7 at USU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−18.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:45USU 4th & 2 at USU 33, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:42FRES 4th & 7 at midfield, up 6
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:19USU 4th & 5 at USU 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.0%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:19FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:42USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:45FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:00USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:51FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:51FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:29USU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:42USU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−1.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:19FRES Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.3%−3.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4865% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
35.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
35.3%
Logan Fife sacked by Blaine Spires for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
36.2%
Carson King punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3436% → 37%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
36.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
36.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 3 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
36.3%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
36.9%
Ryan Marks punt for 46 yds, downed at the FRES 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 5:1963% → 66%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
36.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+2
36.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+28
36.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 28 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
36.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
36.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
36.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+22
36.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 22 yds to the USU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
36.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
36.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
36.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
36.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the USU 5Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3736% → 41%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 10 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
35.6%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 13 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
36.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 6 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
36.3%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
36.0%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
36.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 8 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+3
36.8%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
41.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 29 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2461% → 60%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.4%
Jaelen Gill run for 1 yd to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
39.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 17 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.6%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
38.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
39.8%
Carson King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:1341% → 41%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
40.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+11
40.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 11 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
40.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
40.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 9 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
41.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
42.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+11
41.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 11 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.7%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
42.4%
Cooper Legas run for 11 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
43.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
43.0%
Cooper Legas sacked by Malachi Langley for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-15
43.5%
LEGAS, Cooper pass short to the right complete for 41 yards to FAISON, Rahsul caught at the FSU40 and advanced to the FSU0, TOUCHDOWN USU, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:37 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY USU Personal Foul on ANDERSEN, Teague enforced 15 yards USU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 15 yards from the USU44 to the USU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 39
OWN 29
+17
41.3%
Davon Booth run for 17 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Ryan Marks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3359% → 57%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
41.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.3%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
41.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 16 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 43Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
40.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
41.0%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
42.8%
Carson King punt for 48 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the USU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:5043% → 43%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
43.4%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the USU 8Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+2
43.3%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the USU 10Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+7
42.5%
Cooper Legas run for 7 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
43.7%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 12Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
43.5%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the USU 12Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
43.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+5
42.5%
LEGAS, Cooper pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANE, Broc broken up by SCOTT, Raymond at the USU19. PENALTY Before the snap, FSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU12 to the USU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+2
42.5%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
42.7%
Ryan Marks punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:5761% → 71%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
39.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds to the USU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
38.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jake Boust for 9 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
39.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
38.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
38.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 16Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+12
39.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the USU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
38.5%
Logan Fife sacked by Hale Motu'apuaka for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 7Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
29.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:4533% → 49%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
33.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 9 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-1
36.2%
Cooper Legas sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 44Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
35.7%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 1 yd to the USU 45Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+13
34.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 13 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
37.0%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left complete for 32 yards to BRIGGS, Robert caught at the FSU32 and advanced to the FSU10 (JACKSON, Phoenix;GORDON, Chrishawn), out of bounds. PENALTY USU Unnecessary Roughness on MAUI, Aloali'i enforced 15 yards from the FSU42 to the USU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+5
33.6%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 5 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+52
48.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 52 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:5258% → 55%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
42.0%
Logan Fife sacked by Paul Fitzgerald for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
44.9%
[NH] Kneel down by FSU at FSU32 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2347% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.2%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
47.1%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
47.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 12 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
49.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 27 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
51.3%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-2
51.3%
Cooper Legas sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+7
49.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 7 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
54.4%
Elliott Nimrod 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:4550% → 65%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
49.7%
Logan Fife run for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
49.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
49.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
35.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 46 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4140% → 40%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.5%
Fresno State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jahzon Jacks) to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
42.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
43.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
43.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
43.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
43.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+2
43.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
40.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:1364% → 80%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
36.1%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
36.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
35.8%
Logan Fife run for 7 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
34.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 23 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
32.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
32.9%
SHERROD, Malik rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the USU30 (TAFISI, MJ;HARRIS, Simeon). PENALTY USU Holding on MIGAO, Enoka enforced 10 yards from the USU29 to the USU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
19.6%
Jaelen Gill pass complete to Tre Watson for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:5722% → 26%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.3%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
22.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
23.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+28
24.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 28 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
26.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
25.5%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0979% → 79%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
21.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
21.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 2 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
21.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
19.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
19.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
20.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
21.0%
Carson King punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:1620% → 47%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
20.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
19.8%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Terrell broken up by NORRIS JR., Morice at the USU42. PENALTY FSU Holding on NORRIS JR., Morice enforced 10 yards from the USU35 to the USU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
21.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 10 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
22.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 1 yd to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
47.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 43 yds for a TD (J. Royals Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:3363% → 77%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
36.6%
Logan Fife run for 12 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
34.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+18
34.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 18 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
33.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the USU 38Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
33.5%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
31.2%
Logan Fife sacked by Cian Slone for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 5Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
31.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the USU 2Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
33.0%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Jake Boust) to the USU 7Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.9%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
22.6%
Dylan Lynch 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0529% → 27%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
29.1%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
29.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
27.1%
Ryan Marks punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0379% → 81%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
21.4%
Logan Fife run for 10 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
20.3%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 45Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
21.1%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+5
22.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 7
50
0
18.7%
Carson King punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0025% → 70%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
24.9%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
26.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
25.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+38
29.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 38 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
69.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 24 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1643% → 90%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
57.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+19
59.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
52.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+29
51.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 29 yds to the USU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
49.1%
Utah State Penalty, Offsides (Bo Maile) to the USU 11Similar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+11
9.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24INT
12 plays · 32 yds · 1:2423% → 6%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.8%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.0%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
22.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
19.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
24.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 9 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+11
26.3%
Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
20.9%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
19.6%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
5.5%
Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Carlton Johnson) to the FRES 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -18 yds · 0:5594% → 94%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 25
OWN 16
0
6.0%
[NH] Kneel down by FSU at FSU15 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 26
OWN 15
0
6.2%
[NH] Kneel down by FSU at FSU14 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 14
0
5.6%
[NH] Kneel down by FSU at FSU13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:42
Rahsul Faison run for 24 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
+40.5
TD · Q4 2:19
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-39.5
TD · Q4 14:29
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 43 yds for a TD (J. Royals Run For Two-point Conversion)
+24.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com