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FRES

Fresno State 18 at San José State 42

SJSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:41 · Carson King punt for 26 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+32.2Score differential+22.2Garbage-time factor+7.9Pregame prior+0.6Blowout margin+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:55: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 7 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:25: Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:57: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 39 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +1.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:17: Michael Dansby 98 Yd Interception Return (Kyler Halvorsen Kick) — SJSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:01: Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 11 yds for a TD (Logan Fife pass to Jake Boust for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 6:04FRES 4th & 7 at SJSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:53FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:43SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:26FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:38FRES 4th & 12 at SJSU 41, down 18
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:39SJSU 4th & 16 at SJSU 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:02FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:57FRES 4th & 22 at midfield, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:20SJSU 4th & 25 at FRES 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:37FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 20, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:08SJSU 4th & 29 at SJSU 42, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 11, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:16SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:41FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 6, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:13SJSU 4th & 8 at FRES 8, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:34SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:55SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25SJSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:55SJSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:57FRES Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:17SJSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:07SJSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:01FRES Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2658% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
58.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 20 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
58.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 13 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
58.4%
Quali Conley run for 16 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
58.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
58.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 6 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+25
59.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 25 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 6:3041% → 41%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
59.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+9
59.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
59.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
59.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
59.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
59.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 9 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+6
59.8%
Mikey Keene run for 6 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
59.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the SJSU 28Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
59.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the SJSU 21Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
60.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the SJSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
59.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 4 yds to the SJSU 12Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-1
60.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 13Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
60.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
59.5%
Dylan Lynch 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0960% → 65%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+41
59.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 41 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
61.0%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
61.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 12 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
61.4%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 7Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 7 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0336% → 36%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Matthew Tago fumbled, recovered by SJSU Matthew Tago (02:52) [NHSG] KEENE, Mikey pass to the right intercepted by TAGO, Matthew at the FSU34 intended for FREEMAN, Josiah. Tago return for 15 yards to the FSU19, TAGO, Matthew fumbled at FSU29 forced by FREEMAN, Josiah, recovered by SJS TAGO, Matthew at the FSU28, returned 9 yards, out of bounds, clock 02:45.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:2065% → 73%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
65.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
65.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3228% → 27%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
72.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+9
72.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
73.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
73.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
73.4%
Carson King punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:5274% → 76%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
73.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 17 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
74.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+18
75.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 18 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
76.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 6 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+16
76.3%
Quali Conley run for 16 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
77.1%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
76.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the FRES 14 Chevan Cordeiro fumbled, recovered by SJSU Chevan Cordeiro (10:45) [NHSG] QB Keeper CORDEIRO, Chevan rush to the left for no gain, CORDEIRO, Chevan fumbled at FSU17 , recovered by SJS CORDEIRO, Chevan at the FSU14, returned 0 yards to the FSU14 (LIGHTFOOT, Gavriel).Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
76.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 14 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5425% → 25%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
74.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
75.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+15
75.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
76.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 5 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
75.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
76.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 15 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 39 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1477% → 77%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.4%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
77.7%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 30Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
77.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.9%
Alex Weir punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5822% → 19%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
77.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 17 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
77.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-2
76.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 47Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
78.4%
Mikey Keene run for 5 yds to the SJSU 48Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+9
78.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 9 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
77.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
77.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-6
78.5%
Logan Fife sacked by Noah Lavulo for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
81.2%
Carson King punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5181% → 83%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
80.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 16 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
81.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 11 yds to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
82.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-10
82.4%
(01:13) ROBINSON, Kairee rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the FSU38 (JACKSON, Phoenix). PENALTY SJS Holding on OSTROM, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the FSU44 to the SJS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
82.6%
(00:58) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right complete for 9 yards to MAZOTTI, Dominick caught at the FSU45 and advanced to the FSU45 (NORRIS JR., Morice), out of bounds. PENALTY SJS Holding on OSTROM, Tyler declined SJS Holding on NAVARRO, Jaime enforced 10 yards from the SJS46 to the SJS36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 21
OWN 36
0
82.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 21
OWN 36
+5
81.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
82.7%
Alex Weir punt for 55 yds, downed at the FRES 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
83.8%
(00:25) [NH] Kneel down by FIFE, Logan at FSU3 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4016% → 5%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
83.8%
Logan Fife run for 9 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+9
83.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.7%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
84.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
83.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.6%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
84.0%
Jaelen Gill run for 6 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
83.8%
Logan Fife run for 2 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
84.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
83.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-98
95.5%
Michael Dansby 98 Yd Interception Return (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:164% → 4%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
96.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 16 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.1%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
96.1%
Logan Fife run for 8 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
96.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
96.3%
Logan Fife sacked by Tre Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 46Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 18
OPP 46
-4
96.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 22
50
0
96.5%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 22
50
0
96.5%
Carson King punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:3197% → 99%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
97.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 8 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
97.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 5 yds to the SJSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
97.9%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 14 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
98.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 18 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
98.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
98.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
98.7%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 32Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-10
98.8%
(03:20) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short up the middle incomplete intended for OLSON, Sam thrown to the FSU27. PENALTY SJS Holding on CARMONA, JR., Fernando enforced 10 yards from the FSU32 to the FSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 22
OPP 42
0
98.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 22
OPP 42
-3
98.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Sione Noa for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 45Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 25
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Alex Weir punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:362% → 1%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
98.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jaelen Gill for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 10Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+5
98.5%
(01:46) FIFE, Logan pass deep to the right intercepted by HARVEY, DJ at the FSU34 intended for FREEMAN, Josiah. Harvey return for 0 yards to the FSU34, End of Play, clock 01:39. PENALTY SJS Offsides on LATU, Taniela enforced 5 yards from the FSU10 to the FSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+4
98.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+1
98.7%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Carson King punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 3:2999% → 99%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+22
99.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 22 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
99.2%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the FRES 33 San José State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fernando Carmona Jr.) to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-10
99.3%
(13:45) ROBINSON, Kairee rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU47 (JOHNSON, Isaiah). PENALTY SJS Holding on CARMONA, JR., Fernando enforced 10 yards from the FSU43 to the SJS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 24
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 24
OWN 47
-5
99.2%
San José State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SJSU 42Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 29
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 29
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Alex Weir punt for 35 yds, downed at the FRES 23Similar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 14
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
99.0%
Logan Fife sacked by Jay Kakiva for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 20Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-9
98.7%
Logan Fife sacked by Soane Toia for a loss of 9 yards to the FRES 11Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 22
OWN 11
0
98.8%
Carson King punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:5599% → 100%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
99.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 47 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:010% → 2%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 14 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
99.8%
Logan Fife sacked by Noah Lavulo for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 40Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+14
99.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 14 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+35
99.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 35 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moss for 11 yds for a TD (Logan Fife pass to Jake Boust for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:4599% → 99%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 23Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+16
98.9%
Quali Conley run for 16 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.0%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
99.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
99.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 48Similar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Alex Weir punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
99.4%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 6Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
99.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
99.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
99.4%
Carson King punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 4:2099% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.3%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
99.3%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+23
99.4%
Quali Conley run for 23 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.7%
Quali Conley run for 1 yd to the FRES 4Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
(01:38) [NH] Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at FSU5 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.7%
(00:57) [NH] Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at FSU8 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
[NH] Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at FSU11 (team loss of 3); SJS turnover on downs, clock 00:13.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
99.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 11 yds to the FRES 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
Michael Dansby 98 Yd Interception Return (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)
+11.8
TD · Q1 1:25
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q1 2:55
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 7 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com