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NEV

Nevada 9 at Fresno State 27

FRES
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:26 · Mikey Keene pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+36.2Home team on offense+4.1Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.1Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q1 5:42: Matt Freem punt for 34 yds — NEV win probability +2.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · Q2 4:15: Malik Sherrod run for 72 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +2.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:13: Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:51: Dylan Lynch 40 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:11: AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 19 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 14:56NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:56NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42NEV 4th & 28 at FRES 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26FRES 4th & 4 at NEV 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44NEV 4th & 20 at NEV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56NEV 4th & 15 at FRES 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:26NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:47NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:13FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:51FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:51NEV 4th & 25 at NEV 24, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:42FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 30, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:12NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:42FRES 4th & 8 at NEV 44, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:12FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:15FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:37FRES Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:11NEV Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
20 plays · 41 yds · 9:145% → 8%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+14
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 14 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 7 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+9
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
94.6%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Jamaal thrown to the FST13. PENALTY NEV Holding on CAPRA, Joey enforced 10 yards from the FST28 to the FST38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-1
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 39Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 21
OPP 39
0
94.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 21
OPP 39
-7
94.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Chrishawn Gordon for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 46Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 28
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Matt Freem punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 3:3092% → 93%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
92.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
92.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+9
92.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
92.3%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 25Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
92.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 10 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+65
92.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 65 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:358% → 8%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
92.4%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 29Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Matt Freem punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1193% → 92%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+13
92.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-17
92.6%
Mikey Keene sacked by Jaden Dedman for a loss of 17 yards to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 38
+19
92.3%
Mikey Keene run for 4 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for no gain to the NEV 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
92.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+6
92.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:429% → 9%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
91.3%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Morice Norris Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 31Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 16
OWN 31
-3
91.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the NEV 43 Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (John Jackson III) to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 27
OWN 20
+5
91.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 22
OWN 25
-5
91.8%
Nevada Penalty, Delay Of Game (John Jackson III) to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 27
OWN 20
+7
91.8%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
91.5%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:2491% → 91%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.3%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
91.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2410% → 9%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
89.9%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
89.9%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-8
90.0%
AJ Bianco sacked by Kemari Munier-Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
90.9%
Matt Freem punt for 43 yds, downed at the FRES 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 2:4191% → 93%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 13 yds to the FRES 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the FRES 16Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 2 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+10
90.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 10 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
93.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 72 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:377% → 7%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
93.0%
AJ Bianco run for 7 yds to the NEV 22Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
92.9%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 5 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
92.9%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 26Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
93.5%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+20
93.5%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 20 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Sean Dollars for 2 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
93.0%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
93.2%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Matt Freem punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:2694% → 94%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
94.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 14Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
94.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+8
94.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
93.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
93.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.0%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:197% → 6%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
93.3%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-6
93.5%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Sione Noa for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 22Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Matt Freem punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:2294% → 96%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
94.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 18 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
94.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
94.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 3 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
94.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the NEV 30Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
94.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
96.0%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:555% → 5%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 4 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
94.9%
Nevada Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Isaah Crocker) to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
95.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
95.3%
Matt Freem punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the FRES 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2796% → 98%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
96.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+13
96.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 13 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
96.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+23
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 23 yds to the NEV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
96.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the NEV 22Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
96.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
97.9%
Dylan Lynch 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 4:002% → 1%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.0%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
97.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Morice Norris Jr. and Camryn Bracha for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 22Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
98.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 17 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 4 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-10
97.9%
LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CURTIS, Spencer thrown to the FST30. PENALTY NEV Holding on WEYNAND, Adam enforced 10 yards from the NEV43 to the NEV33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-10
98.0%
BADOLATO-BIRDSELL, Jacques rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the NEV38 (NORRIS JR., Morice). PENALTY NEV Holding enforced 10 yards from the NEV33 to the NEV23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 26
OWN 23
+8
98.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jacques Badolato-Birdsell for 8 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 18
OWN 31
-7
98.1%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Camryn Bracha for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 24Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 25
OWN 24
0
98.6%
Matt Freem punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+11
98.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+8
98.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
98.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
98.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 27 yds to the NEV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
99.9%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Frank Poso) to the NEV 12Similar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+4
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 4 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+15
99.9%
Fresno State Penalty, Targeting on JACKS, Jahzon enforced (Jahzon Jacks) to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-7
99.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 36Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 6 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
99.9%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 16 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 14 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
99.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
99.7%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 38Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-8
99.7%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 35Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Matt Freem punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
99.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 24 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-5
99.8%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for BOUST, Jake thrown to the NEV34. PENALTY FST Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NELSON, Braylen enforced 5 yards from the NEV41 to the NEV46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Carson King punt for 34 yds, downed at the NEV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:310% → 2%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 9
OWN 10
+11
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 11 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+6
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the NEV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 22 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.8%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.8%
AJ Bianco run for 11 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.7%
BIANCO, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LATU, Keleki thrown to the FST15. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on GORDON, Chrishawn enforced 15 yards to the FST19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 19 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST35 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:15
Malik Sherrod run for 72 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+2.9
PUNT · Q1 5:42
Matt Freem punt for 34 yds
-2.3
FG · Q3 9:13
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com