Coastal Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1563rd
  Defense+0.0858th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.5%45th
  Defense44.0%27th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3485th
  Defense+1.1880th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0530th
  Defense+0.1618th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3173rd
  Defense+0.0792nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.9%23rd
  Defense49.2%28th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.4%77th
  Defense32.8%19th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9022nd
  Defense3.4211th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.3%7th
  Defense13.8%15th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.6%75th
  Defense15.9%45th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Coastal Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UCLA
2. W
   JXST
3. W
   DUQ
4. L
   GAST
5. L
   GASO
6. W
   APP
7. W
   ARST
8. W
   MRSH
9. W
   ODU
10. W
    TXST
11. L
    ARMY
12. L
    JMU
13. W
    SJSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Coastal Carolina.

Players, 2023

1. Grayson McCallQB232 plays · +0.311 pts/play · 64th of 250 QBs
   1.35WAR0.90 to 1.85
2. Ethan VaskoQB153 plays · +0.263 pts/play · 110th of 250 QBs
   0.75WAR0.41 to 1.14
3. Jarrett GuestQB57 plays · +0.305 pts/play · 156th of 250 QBs
   0.33WAR0.11 to 0.54
4. Sam PinckneyWR80 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 24th of 457 WRs
   0.29WAR0.09 to 0.46
5. Reese WhiteRB81 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 168th of 383 RBs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.23
6. Jared BrownWR70 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 99th of 457 WRs
   0.17WAR0.01 to 0.33
7. Braydon BennettRB101 plays · +0.073 pts/play · 192nd of 383 RBs
   0.14WAR0.04 to 0.22
8. Kendall KarrTE23 plays · +0.254 pts/play · 47th of 212 TEs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Coastal Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  51651685th of 130Roster talent: 516, 85th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14214290th of 130Recruiting: 142, 90th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  92%92%6th of 128Returning production: 92%, 6th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.2−1.267th of 130SP+ rating: −1.2, 67th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Coastal Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UCLAQ4 14:07 4th & 3 at UCLA 38, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
2. at ARSTQ4 9:54 4th & 2 at ARST 5, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
3. at SJSUQ4 14:16 4th & 3 at SJSU 32, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs JXSTQ3 5:47 4th & 2 at JXST 26, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs TXSTQ4 14:07 4th & 2 at TXST 41, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. at APPQ2 14:08 4th & 2 at CCU 48, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. at UCLAQ2 6:33 4th & 1 at CCU 19, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
8. at GASOQ4 9:45 4th & 10 at GASO 13, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

36th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Coastal Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UCLA
2. W

   JXST
3. W

   DUQ
4. L

   GAST
5. L

   GASO
6. W

   APP
7. W

   ARST
8. W

   MRSH
9. W

   ODU
10. W

    TXST
11. L

    ARMY
12. L

    JMU
13. W

    SJSU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Coastal Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.77
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.08
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.30

Game by game

• UCLAL 13-27 at UCLA18% → 1%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• JXSTW 30-16 vs JXST85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• DUQW 66-7 vs DUQ98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• GASTL 17-30 vs GAST69% → 2%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −60, Clock −2
• GASOL 28-38 at GASO37% → 3%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −1
• APPW 27-24 at APP39% → 95%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +52, Clock +2
• ARSTW 27-17 at ARST76% → 98%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• MRSHW 34-6 vs MRSH48% → 100%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +48, Possession & field position −1
• ODUW 28-24 at ODU60% → 85%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• TXSTW 31-23 vs TXST47% → 94%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• ARMYL 21-28 at ARMY63% → 4%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −3
• JMUL 14-56 vs JMU49% → 0%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −52
• SJSUW 24-14 at SJSU31% → 95%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Coastal Carolina's side.

Closest call

CCU 27-21 USA (2021) - Coastal Carolina dropped to a 8.4% win probability before pulling it out.